Nilai Tukar Rupiah Melemah, Faktor Global dan Domestik Jadi Sorotan

It's time for you to watch Kompas Bisnis, brothers and sisters, with me, Yan Rahman. The rupee brothers are back loyal to the US dollar by again exceeding the psychological level of above 18 thousand rupiah.

According to some economists, the price of the rupee is low because of the combination of global and domestic sentiment. Globally, the geopolitical tension of the US military attack on Iran has reduced the hope of achieving peace agreements, so as to reduce the risk in the region. Meanwhile, domestically, the decline in the consumer confidence index continues to decline until the implementation of the PBN becomes a negative sentiment.

Data from a number of banks, on July 9, 2026, the US dollar even sold up to Rp 18,220 in the State Bank. Meanwhile, the independent bank is at the level of Rp 18,150 per US dollar.

BNI and BCA sell dollars with identical figures at Rp 18,130, while BRI sells at Rp 18,116. To buy, BRI is at the highest level at Rp 18,083, BNI at Rp 18,070, while the other three banks are still below the level of Rp 18,000.

Data from Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate, Gisdok Bank Indonesia, is monitoring the currency, continuing to experience a trend of weakness. At the beginning of this week's closure, the currency was at the level of US$17,999 per dollar, leaving one point touching Rp 18,000. Then, it was thin the next day at Rp 17,988.

but unable to face the dollar until it again touched the psychological level of 18,005 on July 8 and again weakened the closing of the trade yesterday at the 18,090 dollar per US dollar.

Meanwhile, Bloomberg data, brothers in the spot market, the rupee also fell sharply towards the US dollar at the beginning of the week, the rupee traded at Rp 17,995, strengthened at the slush at Rp 17,980. However, on Wednesday, it weakened 34 points and again passed the psychological level at the 18,014 figure per US dollar. And back to the low in the Thursday trade to the level of 18,089.

Hello, good morning.

Mr. Ibrahim, we saw that the last rupee went through more than Rp. 18,000. There are domestic and external sentiments in combination. We go to domestic first, Mr. Ibrahim. What do you think is the factor that weighs the rupee this time?

Yes, the factor of the rupee weight has been weak since the beginning on July 2, when the trade was already in the market, then inflation, then the Indonesian manufacturing price, the debt is separate, which is experiencing a decline, except maybe for the debt is separate, maybe I will open one by one.

especially the trading market. And the trading market in May experienced a deficit of 1.61 billion, which previously we saw in April was a surplus of 90 million USD. Although in the previous month, this also experienced a deficit, but we see that

Mr. Ibrahim?

Okay, it seems there is an audio interference with our source, Ibrahim Aswoyib, community observer, and at least you can get us information about the value of the exchange rate. At this time, indeed, for two consecutive days, it has been decreasing from 17 thousand or even almost touching 18 thousand at the beginning of the week, then passing the level of 18 thousand on the day

Wednesday and also Thursday, however, it is said that a number of sentiments affect the value of exchange rates, including domestic and also global. Domestic, as mentioned earlier, there are several things including inflation and also trade inflation that is also monitored by a deficit of US $ 1.6 billion, which is weighing

the value of the exchange rate in the end, although this report is per May 2026, including the inflation figure, which has also become the weight of the rupee performance so far. It is observed that you are not only from the

The spot market for Rupiah is also weak, especially from the banking sector. We see that from JIS Door by Indonesia, we are still at around 18,000, but in banking, there are those who sell up to 18,200 and also on average at 18,100 with the purchase number on average 17,000 or sell and also buy at 17,900.

And, ladies and gentlemen, this rupee performance, as you can see at the moment, there are some that we make references, including among them from banks, data from a number of banks per Thursday yesterday, the US dollar was sold up to Rp 18,220, precisely at the State Savings Bank, while at the independent bank at the level of Rp 18,150 per US dollar.

BNI and BCA also sell dollars with identical figures at Rp 18,130, while Bank Rakyat Indonesia sells at the level of Rp 18,116.

To buy, it is also different, brothers and sisters, Bank Rakyat Indonesia is at the highest level at Rp 18,083, while BNI is at Rp 18,070. While the other three banks are still below the level of Rp 18,000, as you can see, it is at Rp 17,800 to Rp 17,900.

Data from Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate or Jisdor Bank Indonesia is monitored, the rupee continues to experience a weakening trend

At the beginning of this week's shutdown, the dollar was at the level of 17,999 per dollar. The United States has only one point left, which is to reach 18,000. Then, it will be at the level of 17,988 the next day. However, it is not able to face the dollar until it reaches the psychological level of 80,000.

Rp. 15,000 in July 8 and again weakened in the closing of the trade yesterday at Rp. 18,090 per US dollar. We continue the discussion with Ibrahim Aswaibi. Mr. Ibrahim, we continue the discussion again. Earlier you mentioned that you are connected with some negative sentiments that become a weight of the rupee or the performance of the rupee. There is inflation and also a deficit trade that after the last 72 months is still surging. Mr. Ibrahim.

Yes, hello, sir. Maybe I will continue again. Then, the PMI Indonesia data menu also experienced a contraction. We see that in May, it was at 50.1, then in June, it was at 46.9. This indicates that

The problem of mass PHK, many companies and businesses that moved from Indonesia to Vietnam, this also has an impact on the value of the fact. Then the debt of the visa, Indonesia also in May, this is 144.9 billion, then in June, it was 145.6 billion. This has also experienced an increase and this is also a big problem.

when the currency exchange rate was in decline, but our debt rate increased. Although we see that this debt rate can hold the strength at 4.9 months. We must also see that international governments, such as the FITRATING, say that

All countries that have a BPPB rating must have a minimum rating of 5 months. What does it mean? That the Indonesian Bank's deposit is only 4.9 months strong. This is also questioned.

Moreover, yesterday, the IKK index, consumer confidence, was also continuously increasing. If we look at January, it was 127.0. Then in May, it was 120.9. Then in June, it was 117.8. What does it mean?

The consumer's confidence index has experienced significant losses, so it is natural that the dollar will experience significant losses. On the other hand, the problem of our capital market, MSCI, which is still waiting for the

Indonesia's capital market enters the emergency market or the border market, this is also still being questioned. Now, this complication is what makes the currency suffer losses, especially when we look at the external data, it also supports the loss of currency. There was a war in the Middle East along with the Iranian colony for the

the death of Ayatullah Khomeini, then also the collapse of the Bank Central America, because someone wants to raise the price of flowers, to preserve the price of flowers, then John William, earlier that night, also said that the price of oil is full, there is a high possibility that it will experience a decline. This is from the perspective of the Bank Central's policy. The politics in the United States are also now heated, including

That's it, sir.

Okay, domestically and globally, as explained briefly by Mr. Ibrahim, if we look at what I can underline, there are also some related to the deficit trade and also deficit stocks. If we discuss one by one, Mr. Ibrahim, I first go to the consumer confidence index or IKK that fell. If it is elaborated, what is directly related to the rupee loss?

Oh yes, of course, the consumer's confidence index is experiencing a decline, this indicates that the purchasing power of this community continues to experience a decline, and that is also related to the manufacturer's policy. So, among the consumer's confidence index, this is also related to the manufacturer's policy. When the manufacturer experiences a contraction, it will definitely affect the consumer's confidence index. We see that the consumer's confidence index

consumer income from January which is quite high, which we see is 127, which is down to June, it's 117, what does it mean that

The consumer, Indonesia, also experienced a decline. Then the problem of PHK was so big, we saw that especially the companies that are very hard to work, like in Bandung, like shoes, then convex, this really supported, especially yesterday the event of Tokopedia and TikTok.

That's it, sir.

Okay, so the note also Mr. Ibrahim is related to the note or warning from the Fitch Ratings regarding the trust of investors, how far this also contributes to the rupiah. But we will talk about it later, stay with us on Kompas Bisnis.

The dollar is a rupee that is back loyal to the US dollar until it reaches a psychological figure of more than Rp. 18,000. We continue the discussion with Ibrahim Aswaibi, an economist, financial advisor, and also a commodity expert. Mr. Ibrahim, we continue the discussion. Earlier you briefly mentioned what is the weight

There is inflation, deficit of trade, manufacturing PMI data, and even deficit savings. If we elaborate one by one, Mr. Ibrahim, one of them is the trade market, which set a 72-month surplus record, so the deficit is in May 2026. How big is this report affecting the movement of the rupiah? Because if we look at it, throughout the year 2026, there was actually a surplus, from January, February, to April.

Mr. Ibrahim? Yes, I see that for the trade to be done in April itself, there is a surplus of 90 million dollars. But we see that this surplus is also narrowing. This indicates that in the next month, in May, because we see that in May this is a fairly large oil import,

from the Middle East, this makes the dollar demand quite high, so that there will be a deficit of 1.61 billion. We must see that we are about the trade-in deficit, we also have a trade-in deficit,

in the BNPB is 2.68%, but apparently it exceeds 2.68%, even reached the level of 2.86%, so there is a reversal from 2.68% to 2.86%. Now, we also see that the subsidies that the government does

for BPM and others until the first semester, this has increased by Rp. 233 trillion, almost 52% compared to last May. Last May, it was Rp. 203.7 trillion. Meanwhile, the Pagu, the APBN itself, is only Rp. 381.3 trillion. What does it mean?

that the first semester was over 50%, 52% for example in the meeting yesterday at the DPR, the Minister of Finance, Purbaya, made a revision for the second semester this is quite good, especially for the raw oil, it was taxed at 83 dollars per barrel this means that

the government is also alert, but we must remember that if a war happens, we must remember that Iran is still in the process of joining the war. It means that Iran is still in the middle of attacking, but when it is finished in the coming week, Iran will be ready to attack the American facilities in the Middle East. And what is the impact of this?

regarding the increase in oil prices. Indeed, at this time, oil prices are experiencing a decline. What is the result? The statement of the US central bank, especially John Williams, who said that the oil price is likely to drop. It is possible that this is also an intervention from Trump.

because Trump himself wants the gas toll to experience a decline because this is the impact on the American consumer. That's it, sir. Okay, before we go any further, let's talk about the external, Mr. Ibrahim. From domestic, you mentioned earlier about the deficit savings. We know that the deficit savings in June last month rose to US$145.6 billion compared to May of this year, US$144.9 billion.

Mr. Ibrahim, is this not enough for the rupee strength?

Oh yes, so in my opinion, not. When the condition of rupiah is in decline, it is suffering from weakness, the Bank of Indonesia always says that it continues to make interventions, both in the international market, domestic market, obligations, then in foreign currency, but in fact the interest rate has experienced an increase. That's the first. The second always says that the Bank of Indonesia that the interest rate

The US dollar is 145.6 billion USD. This is enough for 4.9 months. This is also a big question. Because internationally, the international government says that countries that have a BBB rating must have

to manage this stock for 5 months. This is also something that Indonesian banks should pay attention to. So, it's the same as the problem of the capital market, the problem of the free float, where internationally it is limited to a minimum of 15%, but in Indonesia it is 3-75%.

Nah, Bank Indonesia itu harus berpikir ulang juga untuk kekuatannya apa? Untuk 5 bulan ke depan. Nah, ini yang menjadi tanda-tandanya besar, sehingga apa? Harus modal asing begitu besar, rupiah melemah cukup tajam kemarin, bahkan saya katakan bahwa cukup tajam, karena apa? Karena 114 poin. Sebelum-sebelumnya tidak seperti itu. Ini penurunan yang cukup luar biasa, sampai ditutup dalam...

Okay.

After that, the rupee again experienced significant weakness. The internal and external complications are quite large. Then we also see the problem of Merah Putih Corporation. Merah Putih Corporation has a leak of 46 trillion.

The government must carry out a strict policy, especially since yesterday there was a arrest of a public office from Kejaksaan Agung. This also affects the millions of rupiahs of money there. It means that the market is a little bit up.

Yes.

Yes.

Indonesia Bank actually has only one way. Why? When making an intervention, almost every day there is an intervention, whether in the international market or the domestic market. The only way for Indonesia Bank, the most effective is to increase the number of flowers.

My target until the end of the year is a high possibility of 200 basis points. If 100 basis points are completed, it means there are 100 more basis points to raise the value of the plant. Why should the Indonesian bank raise the value of the plant? Because that's the only way to stabilize the market value of the currency. Even though the impact on the credit value of the plant has increased and we can see it, we already know that the current foreign banks, the deposit, per month is already 7%.

Then the obligation is also above 3.4%. What does it mean? This indicates that the banks also want to attract people who have already been allocated in the revenue.

And it must be remembered that this is the second quarter, it's over. It means that the companies that are in the stock market also have to prepare dollars for the share of the dividend. So, sir, in my opinion, if the rupee is weak, it is very reasonable in this current condition. Because the internal complications are directed to the weakness of the monetary system.

That's it, sir. Okay. It seems that the current conditions, Mr. Ibrahim, are a distraction, especially from international government agencies, including the latest report from Fitch Ratings, which reminds Indonesia, in addition to the debt-sharing program that has been down for years, it is also related to investor trust. How should this be responded to by the government so that the rupee weakness does not continue to occur?

The government has responded, especially in the capital market, OJK, Bursa Teknonesya. But maybe this is very difficult. The pre-flop problem, from three...

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I think that if this transparency does not work well, especially in the international report, the international government will also suspend MSCI. The possibility of a big disaster will happen. This is what we will see in August and September, what OJK and the Indonesian Economic Council will do.

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Vietnam is also in the second quarter, which is quite good, above 8%. This also has an impact, Indonesia should follow the steps taken by Vietnam, which is one of the countries in ASEAN that is quite capable of its economy. This is as

Indonesia is like that. We must also remember that in Vietnam and Indonesia are different. Vietnam's economic growth is 50% of the investment. Same as in China. In Indonesia, the growth

the economic growth is 50% of the public's purchasing power. What does it mean? That the government always makes interventions in the market, which has PLT, BOS funds, and others. This is what raises 2.9% of the public's purchasing power. So what?

Indonesia's economic growth is quite good, but it will also not affect the middle-to-low class. What is the proof? The purchasing power of the people is decreasing, the GDP is everywhere, because the company's capital is different from other Asian countries, especially Vietnam, which focuses on investing, 50%. That's it, sir. So the progress of neighboring countries, including Vietnam, must be motivated by us. Mr. Ibrahim,

We also see that in addition to the FIT rating, there are still a few times in the future, there are a number of other government institutions that may also provide a rating that Indonesia should be a concern. If we shift again from the domestic sentiment to the external sentiment, you mentioned it before briefly, actually how big is the impact of the external sentiment, including the US attack in the Middle East on

pressure on the rupiah, because if we always rely on or see the condition in the Middle East, the US attack and also Iran, it means that the currency shortage is getting more and more uncertain, Mr. Ibrahim.

So, we see that when the agreement between the United States and Iran was signed, then the oil price dropped. The price of oil dropped because of the oversupply. I have previously said that

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export, transportation, then production rises even in the dark market the price of oil is sold at 10 dollars per barrel especially oil from Angola why?

a fairly stable competition, so the price of oil is below the standard price of Rp65,000 to Rp70,000. On the other hand, it is actually quite good. Finally, the rupee experienced a drop in oil price, and the rupee also experienced a little strengthening. However, we must also be careful that the geopolitical impact in the Middle East, there is a fear that this war will happen, then Iran will decide to surrender.

So, they are pushing the South Hormuz so that speculators play, they again raise the price of oil. Why? Countries that transport ships through the South Hormuz will definitely raise their insurance. This insurance is the most feared. When the insurance for the transportation of ships that are operating there is raised, it will also have an impact on

oil prices and the value of the dollar. So here is the speculation, it's so big, frying to increase oil. Actually, it turned out to be an oversupply. That's the first. Then the second, in Eastern Europe itself, Russia and Ukraine, we see that Ukraine is attacking Russia, it's not a high building, but what is attacked is the installation of oil.

Okay.

Okay, Mr. Ibrahim, lastly, you can answer briefly. What will your projection of the rupee movement be like in the short term? Is the optimism of Bank Indonesia to return the rupee to the level of Rp 15,000 to Rp 16,000 in the second semester of this year still possible?

I think as a observer that Rupiah 15,000 is very difficult in the current situation, especially in the US and Iran, which is likely to collapse by 2027. Then we see that yesterday,

the Minister of Finance has approved a for APBN in the second semester this also even said that it will be maximum in the budget deficit of 2.86 we just have to see but the rupiah will still experience weakness even if there is a war again in the middle of the year 19,000 the probability will be great

Okay.

Okay, the top level is Rp. 19,000. If we see that the explanation from Indonesia and also the government a few months ago, optimism related to the strengthening of the rupee in August in the number of Rp. 15,000 to Rp. 16,000, this figure is difficult to achieve, considering the presence of a combination of negative sentiments, both domestic and external. Thank you.