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·YouTLDR

Jev: The AI That Makes Decisions, Not Text - and Why It Changes Everything (Diogo Almeida)

1:07:58EnglishBy The MAD Podcast with Matt TurckTranscribed Oct 15, 2026
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0:00

95% Einstein, 5% Mr. Bean. And if it

0:04

doesn't tell you when it's the Mr. Bean,

0:06

then how are you going to automate

0:07

anything? I wrote a document at OpenAI.

0:10

We could have had AGI last year, and I

0:13

still believe that to be true.

0:14

Pre-training is a giant dumpster fire of

0:17

wasting resources. When I first started

0:19

this project, I literally thought it

0:22

would take a week. You can now express

0:24

things that you couldn't express in

0:25

software before. I think that the future

0:27

will be unbelievably sci-fi.

0:29

>> We're building prod not god. Absolutely.

0:31

>> That is Diogo Almeida, CEO of Type safe,

0:34

the company behind Jev. A month ago,

0:36

nobody had heard of Jev. Then it

0:38

launched, hit a nerve in the AI world,

0:40

and quickly [music] became the most

0:41

copied model in AI. Jev is both

0:43

fascinating and perplexing. It's a new

0:45

kind of model, and it's clearly a big

0:47

deal. Yet, even some AI insiders

0:49

struggle to explain what it is, while

0:51

others dismiss it as just a classifier.

0:53

So, we went to the source and asked

0:55

Diogo to walk us through Jev in plain

0:57

English. What it is, where it's going,

0:59

and why copycats are missing the point.

1:01

I'm Matt Turk, and this is the Bad

1:03

Podcast.

1:06

Diogo, welcome.

1:07

>> Thank you. Thank you. Hey, yeah.

1:09

>> All right, this is a super fun time to

1:12

be doing this conversation, in part

1:14

because just yesterday, I believe, as we

1:16

were recording this, you guys announced

1:19

your gigantic series A, 870 million

1:22

series A at a 7.5 billion valuation. So,

1:26

it's been a wild 3 weeks just looking at

1:29

some stats.

1:30

You launched video at 40 million views.

1:32

You talked to somebody talked about a

1:33

million users a day, a trillion tokens a

1:36

day, a third of the Fortune 500, all of

1:39

this in in in just a few weeks. So,

1:41

it it sounds like you're indeed building

1:43

what you call the Jevolution.

1:45

I love the term. I'm just curious what

1:48

it feels like from the inside.

1:50

>> Where do I start? I will say that

1:53

a lot of those stats don't really matter

1:56

for what I feel like is the J evolution.

1:59

Um to me I knew it would be happening

2:02

when builders started playing with it

2:04

and doing the weird stuff. And

2:05

especially when people were starting to

2:07

make apps that they maybe could have

2:09

done before, but didn't bother with

2:11

because AI was so expensive. You know, I

2:13

I we pushed the boundaries of

2:15

intelligence per second, but I think the

2:18

future is going to be intelligence per

2:19

dollar primarily. And I think really

2:22

getting people to play with like like

2:24

the idea that intelligence per dollar

2:25

has dropped two orders of magnitude is

2:27

what will make the J evolution

2:28

unstoppable independent of enterprise

2:30

adoption, users, stats, whatever.

2:33

It to me it's about people playing

2:35

around with things and starting to

2:39

I can't think of a non-corny way to say

2:41

it, but like build the future, you know?

2:43

Like like that could be used the

2:44

unstoppable energy and no matter how big

2:47

that initial snowball is, it will become

2:50

gigantic. So, I've been celebrating this

2:53

for something like two and a half weeks

2:55

now.

2:56

Um I've actually had to do

2:56

soul-searching because I think one of my

2:59

big life goals has been achieved. Um

3:03

and yeah, the stats are obviously great.

3:05

Growing fast is obviously great. I love

3:08

that we are also getting a lot of the

3:12

distribution that we knew we would get

3:14

in two years, but much faster than we

3:15

thought. These are all obviously

3:17

phenomenal things.

3:19

Um but the leading indicator of it all

3:22

is builders being inspired to do new

3:24

things.

3:25

>> And just to uh ask a couple like uh

3:27

startup-related questions. So, you guys

3:29

were in stealth for two years. I'm I'm

3:32

curious how you thought about it in a

3:34

world where like everybody's on X every

3:36

two minutes to talk about something. Why

3:38

did you decide to be in stealth?

3:40

>> No one's asked me that, so that's fun.

3:42

Um

3:43

I would say I think quite contrarianly.

3:48

And I think that this whole

3:52

AI has a gigantic over-promise

3:54

under-deliver issue and you know, I

3:56

think people really saw that with our

3:58

launch. Like when we first launched the

3:59

video, people were like, "Oh, that's

4:00

fake. It's kind of interesting, but like

4:02

there's no way it's true." The launch

4:03

really picked off up when people started

4:06

playing with it and showing their

4:07

results. And I think that under-promise

4:11

over-deliver of our launch is what

4:13

really made it take off. And it's been

4:16

I can't think of a launch

4:17

in AI that has been under-promise

4:19

over-deliver since ChatGPT. So, that

4:22

might be why it took off. I'm not an

4:24

expert in like social dynamics.

4:26

So, I really really

4:30

uh you know, for better or for worse, I

4:31

ignore the noise in the field and really

4:34

focus on what I think is most important.

4:36

And I just did not buy the story at all

4:39

that AI was solving all sorts of

4:40

problems. Because if you actually look

4:42

at all the evidence, it's

4:44

AI is incredible and also incredibly

4:46

underwhelming. And that allowed me to

4:49

really ignore all of the noise in the

4:51

market.

4:52

>> But uh you know, doing this in obscurity

4:54

while everybody's uh you know, getting

4:56

celebrated, how do you

4:59

keep a team energized and keep yourself

5:01

energized building something sort of uh

5:03

you know, without anyone really knowing?

5:05

>> I don't think that uh I I maybe maybe

5:08

the last couple of weeks have changed

5:10

me. I hope not. I don't think I get

5:12

really motivated by being celebrated and

5:14

all that. I actually had to do a lot of

5:16

therapy just to be okay with being in

5:18

our launch video. Because I actually

5:20

before all of this enjoyed being in

5:22

obscurity. Like I'm a technologist

5:25

through and through, I think. And

5:28

what really motivated me for this is

5:30

that there was clearly a gigantic

5:31

technological gap. And it was clearly

5:35

obvious no one was addressing it. So,

5:37

that was my I I I never had any doubt.

5:41

Um I

5:43

it was

5:44

Uh Uh, even when I first had this idea

5:47

long before I started the company, I

5:48

wrote a document at OpenAI. We could

5:51

have had AGI last year, and I still

5:54

believe that to be true because AGI how

5:57

OpenAI defines AGI is a very low bar,

5:59

and the models are super smart.

6:01

Like like we're we're not really putting

6:04

those facts together, and I think a lot

6:06

of the people who

6:07

um like to commentate on the field just

6:09

say like, "Oh, it's a distribution

6:10

problem." Well, like that's obviously

6:11

not the case if you pay attention to any

6:13

like real-world stuff.

6:15

So, um I have very little doubts. I

6:18

think that we managed to get a team

6:20

like, you know, our team obviously

6:21

doesn't care about uh you know, maybe

6:24

there there's a spectrum, but like our

6:25

team is not driven by the hype cycles as

6:27

well because if they were, they wouldn't

6:29

have joined us. I think they really

6:31

believed in our mission, or if they

6:33

didn't, you know, we had non-technical

6:34

people on the team, they really believed

6:36

we had a bunch of like super smart

6:38

people. Maybe they don't understand what

6:40

the model is for, but they're like,

6:41

"Holy crap, these guys are cooking. This

6:43

is worth a bet." So, um

6:46

I I don't think the team is that

6:47

affected by it. What what's funny is

6:49

that I hear all of this, and um

6:52

what's fascinating at the same time is

6:54

that you guys need to seem to be kind of

6:55

like natural-born marketers, and I'm

6:58

sure you you'll cringe at the term, but

7:00

uh you know, you you you're writing,

7:03

you're tweeting very effectively. It

7:04

sounds like you're doing this out of

7:06

authenticity because you're so inspired

7:08

by the mission, and the rest follows.

7:09

I'm trying to tease out uh you know,

7:11

lessons for for others uh that would

7:13

love to have, you know, a a fraction of

7:15

the success that uh Jev had at at

7:18

launch. It's a number one, um I don't

7:21

think we know about marketing. Um

7:23

we still do not have like a marketing

7:25

team. And I would actually argue that

7:28

it's not like we're geniuses of at

7:30

marketing. My argument is that um

7:34

it works because our product is awesome.

7:36

So, actually I think our product is

7:37

carrying the marketing despite what

7:39

people say. And

7:42

like you could call what we are doing

7:43

off into CP perhaps like we are just

7:46

trying to have a good time. Like our the

7:49

blog post yesterday was a fundraising

7:51

announcement. Someone in our team gave

7:53

me a draft and I was like this is the

7:55

most boring thing I've ever read but if

7:57

you want you can ship it because I would

7:59

never read a fundraising announcement

8:00

anyway. So you could actually put

8:02

whatever you want. I don't care and they

8:04

were just like it'd be nicer if it was

8:06

in your voice and I was just like I

8:07

would never I would like why does anyone

8:09

care about this? The product is the

8:11

thing. The fundraising is tends to be

8:13

like an ego game and they're like oh you

8:15

know enterprises will see you as more

8:17

trustworthy. Recruits will see you as a

8:20

more like legit thing and we're like I

8:22

was like

8:23

why don't we just say that to directly?

8:25

Hey recruits, we're a real company.

8:27

We're here to stay. Hey big companies,

8:29

we are going to be building out this

8:31

enterprise platform. We are also here to

8:33

stay. Look at who is investing us. You

8:35

should trust us.

8:36

And I think that

8:38

maybe my intolerance for is

8:41

helpful there.

8:43

Um but I truly believe that it is not a

8:46

replicable strategy.

8:47

I'll I'll give a fun side story about

8:49

the fund raise. Some investors said

8:52

something like holy that was the

8:54

greatest pitch we've ever heard and I

8:57

just told them I don't believe you

8:59

because I've been giving the exact same

9:01

pitch for years and no one cared until

9:04

we had you know absolutely world topping

9:08

product market fit and then they forced

9:10

themselves to understand it because I

9:13

don't think they would have gotten the

9:14

pitch otherwise. So

9:16

um

9:17

I believe the product is carrying

9:19

everything right now and that's perfect

9:22

for me because that's my style. Um we

9:24

knew this would be technological shock

9:26

and awe compared to what big AI does and

9:29

that is probably what we intend to keep

9:32

doing strategically. What I love to do

9:34

now for for bit um is a very basic plain

9:39

English version of Jeb. There's a lot of

9:41

people that have heard of it, but like

9:42

very few people are able to actually

9:44

articulate what it is. So, I'd love to

9:47

start from the top and, um, maybe start

9:50

with this whole concept of system one.

9:53

Uh, it's it's a reference to something.

9:55

Explain what it is.

9:56

>> I would actually like to talk about is

9:59

um, machine native AI rather than system

10:03

one. I actually think that system one is

10:05

more of an implementation detail to

10:08

machine native AI. And I actually think

10:10

most people today think of AI in a very

10:13

particular way. Like AI is always like

10:16

the chat box to the side that happens to

10:18

be the main character in its own little

10:20

show because it doesn't play nicely with

10:22

software. And I think step one for

10:25

people is like this is not,

10:27

you know, chat to GPT plus plus. This is

10:29

like AI for a completely different use

10:32

case. And it's how I would do it. And I

10:36

would talk about, um,

10:39

you know, even the analogy to

10:40

classifiers. I think being called a

10:41

classifier is a compliment. Um, we are

10:44

not limited to classifiers, but

10:46

understanding the beauty of classifiers,

10:48

I think is a necessity to understanding

10:51

why what we're doing is very valuable.

10:53

>> All right. So, mission intelligence is

10:56

the goal. System one is an

10:57

implementation detail. But like system

10:59

one versus system two, uh, that's from

11:01

the book Thinking Fast and Slow. And the

11:05

whole idea is that, uh, there are

11:07

certain type of decisions, uh, that you

11:09

can make intuitively and quickly, uh,

11:11

which is system one. And, uh, there are

11:14

certain decisions that require elaborate

11:15

thinking, and that's system two. Is an

11:18

accurate categorization of where Jeb

11:20

falls in the world that Jeb would be in

11:23

the system one kind of world, whereas

11:25

your classic LLM, let's call it chat GPT

11:29

for just as a as a shorthand, would fall

11:32

in

11:33

uh system two. Is that directionally

11:35

correct?

11:36

>> It is directionally correct. I would

11:37

actually add the nuance that I think

11:40

that

11:41

uh

11:42

models not trained with like the the

11:45

latent reasoning, you know, like the

11:46

reasoning where they where they keep

11:48

hidden, um tend to be system one models,

11:51

and AI is very strong at system one in

11:54

general, a system one in the Kahneman

11:56

sense, and it is the reasoning training

12:00

that makes them capable of doing system

12:02

two tasks, but they are always fragile

12:05

at system two tasks. And my claim is

12:07

that AI is just good at system one, and

12:10

that is extremely valuable on its own.

12:12

And as far as I can tell, we have not

12:15

come even close to solving the

12:17

jaggedness of system two. And

12:20

I I In In In it would be throwing out

12:22

the baby with the bathwater to say it's

12:24

system two or bust.

12:26

>> Okay, great. If

12:28

uh there is a need for an AI that can do

12:32

system one particularly well, which is

12:34

which is a job world, uh it means that

12:37

uh there's a number of um

12:40

decisions in the world of enterprise or

12:43

otherwise that are actually pretty

12:45

simple decisions. Is that is that the

12:47

right starting point?

12:48

>> Th- That yes. Though, I would go into

12:51

like a big aside about software as well

12:53

and machine nativeness and a little bit

12:55

on classifiers, if I could, right now.

12:57

Does that sound like an okay aside to

12:59

jump into?

13:00

>> Sure.

13:00

>> I would talk about not that in business

13:03

that there's specifically system one

13:05

decisions that they need to be made.

13:07

Like, yes, I think that that's how it'll

13:09

start, but like I would talk about like

13:11

how much software can do with its basic

13:14

logic gates. Like, software can do so

13:18

many things in the world, so many

13:19

things, like basically all of technology

13:22

from like what, 1980 to 2020 was driven

13:26

by software. Maybe that's an

13:27

exaggeration, but it feels like that to

13:29

me as a software engineer, so maybe I'm

13:31

biased. Um and you can do so many things

13:34

with like these simple logic gates that

13:35

just do like ands and ors on bits.

13:39

That's kind of crazy.

13:40

And

13:41

software becomes big and powerful not by

13:44

saying like there's an end here

13:47

or an or here in a business. It's by

13:50

doing like a unit of work um so reliably

13:53

that it can become like a bigger thing

13:55

and then composing it together. And my

13:58

claim is where AI will get incredibly

14:00

valuable is not people mapping out

14:03

explicitly like here is work, you know,

14:06

here's a job. Here's the system one

14:07

decisions. Let's like do a workflow

14:09

automation on that. I think that's how

14:11

it'll start, but I think that AI will

14:14

explode in usage once people start

14:17

taking these, you know, these workflows,

14:19

putting them into like a box, and then

14:21

now people call the higher level boxes.

14:23

And [snorts] that is what software is

14:25

all about.

14:25

>> Because that box will be solved and safe

14:28

and reliable.

14:29

>> Exactly. And you need so many that is

14:32

what I describe as composability. And

14:35

and the beauty of software is like once

14:36

you spend the effort up front to making

14:38

these boxes, you can instantly replicate

14:41

them, right? Like software is so

14:42

unbelievably cool. Like imagine you have

14:44

LEGO sets where you can build up higher

14:46

level things, but you can copy paste

14:48

them as many times as you want. That is

14:50

what software kind of is for automation.

14:53

And that I think is how you get more and

14:56

more powerful properties. So, system two

14:59

tasks are not off the table for our

15:00

models. We just believe that system two

15:03

tasks should be composed from simpler

15:06

building blocks that are so reliable

15:08

that they can be trusted to be built on

15:10

top of, which AI so far has been

15:12

incredibly non-composable. Like it's

15:15

plays nicely with nothing except other

15:18

AI.

15:19

And that's that's kind of tragic. Yeah.

15:21

>> Amazing. All right. So, this is where

15:23

this is going in terms of

15:26

where we're starting at a super

15:29

practical basic level.

15:32

Uh one of the use cases that

15:35

you mentioned or the team mentioned is

15:38

customer support. Which And the claim is

15:40

that the current ways it's handled with

15:42

LLMs has not been as efficient as it

15:45

could. Let's take the example of I'm

15:48

sending an email. I'm saying I got

15:51

charged twice and I'm very angry and I

15:54

send that email to an LLM-based system.

15:59

Uh scenario one and then scenario two,

16:02

I'm sending this to a Jev powered

16:05

system. What happens? Compare and

16:07

contrast.

16:07

>> Can I do an easier example than customer

16:10

service is actually quite complicated.

16:12

Um let me do something that is very

16:14

similar to customer service but is a lot

16:16

easier to think about. Like imagine an

16:20

executive assistant for your email. It's

16:22

kind of like customer service but the

16:24

amount of things you can do is way

16:25

simpler. And as far as I can tell, I

16:28

could be wrong, that

16:29

like a scheduling assistant is still not

16:31

solved. I, you know, I have emailed a

16:34

lot of people. I don't see automated

16:36

scheduling assistants. And like that's

16:37

kind of weird because it really looks

16:39

like LLMs should solve this.

16:41

Right? So, people have been trying for

16:43

years for this. And how you do it in an

16:45

LLM is you would, you know, make a big

16:48

system message write-up of all of your

16:49

preferences, blah blah blah, and they

16:52

would be incredibly good at

16:54

stylistically being accurate. Like it'll

16:56

never not look like a well-written

16:59

thing. But it will

17:01

often make subtle mistakes, not in the

17:04

style, not in the psychofancy or

17:05

psychofancy, I don't know how to

17:06

pronounce that word.

17:08

Um you know, like it'll always be

17:09

people-pleasing because LLMs are so good

17:11

at people being people-pleasing, but it

17:13

may not make the right decisions. And

17:15

what people will do is they will like

17:18

keep programming their system prompt.

17:20

Like please do this. If it's an investor

17:22

do that. If it's inbound email do this.

17:24

Um, you know, blah, blah, blah.

17:26

So what ends up happening is you're

17:28

basically programming in natural

17:30

language this giant system prompt. And

17:32

as the complexity rises, the error rates

17:34

get higher and higher and higher because

17:36

you're just praying, "Model, please

17:37

don't make those mistakes." And what

17:39

tends to [clears throat] happen is it's

17:40

embarrassing when those mistakes are

17:41

made or it's costly. You know, you may

17:44

not have like scheduled something with

17:45

an important investor or something like

17:46

that. And um, then you need to like rip

17:49

the system out and toss it away and just

17:51

use, you know, a human because you know,

17:54

it it it it's like it's just obvious

17:55

what to do there and they can like ask

17:57

you when they're uncertain or whatever

17:58

else. So, LLMs to my understanding still

18:01

have not solved this problem.

18:03

The

18:04

I don't know if anyone has solved this

18:06

with a Jev like system yet, but I can

18:08

compare and contrast the differences of

18:10

it. So, what you can imagine instead of

18:13

programming in natural language, like

18:15

describing like if it's important, blah,

18:18

blah, blah. If it's from this, blah,

18:19

blah, blah. If it's inbound, blah, blah,

18:21

blah.

18:21

Um,

18:22

you can actually make individual

18:24

classifiers for each of these things.

18:26

Like smart if statements. Like you can

18:28

now express things that you couldn't

18:30

express in software before because how

18:32

can like these bit comparisons figure

18:34

out if it's inbound or not, right? Like

18:36

that's an intention and it requires like

18:38

natural language common understandings.

18:40

And the idea is you can

18:43

classifiers for all of these things and

18:44

you have this legible system where not

18:47

only can you measure if every if

18:49

statement is accurate, you know that

18:51

none of those if statements will be

18:52

forgotten. And if ever a mistake is

18:54

made, you can add it to an eval because

18:57

the system is very legible. So, it'll

18:59

probably start out less good than the

19:02

text-based system because the text-based

19:04

system has a lot of sane defaults. You

19:05

know, it looks very reasonable because

19:07

that's what it's trained to do. It's

19:09

just trained to like like look human

19:11

pleasing, but it actually doesn't have

19:13

any of the actual behavior you truly

19:16

care about, and you don't have the

19:17

control over that, you know? And that is

19:20

a major problem for anyone who wants to

19:22

truly have something run in the

19:23

background. They want it to to not worry

19:25

about it, and they want to have control,

19:27

and they want to have like some

19:29

idea that it's not going to just go

19:31

completely off the rails.

19:33

And that is what combining like a, you

19:36

know, system one models with code will

19:38

enable you to do. Cuz code is kind of

19:40

like, you know, the uh the roller

19:42

coaster tracks. You don't go off the

19:44

rails. Code prevents that from

19:45

happening. And similar to that, type

19:48

safety, uh you know, that is what the

19:50

property that the system one models

19:52

have, and

19:53

uh

19:54

these things also prevent going off the

19:56

rails. And because they're very legible,

19:58

it becomes way easier to build these

19:59

systems. You can just trust that they

20:01

can run in the background.

20:03

>> So, in that example of the personal

20:04

assistant, um

20:06

the the fundamental basic concept is

20:09

that uh Jave is going to take the input,

20:12

which could be uh data and or

20:15

instructions, uh and will translate this

20:19

not into text, which is what your

20:22

language model does,

20:24

uh but into a set of probabilities. So,

20:27

they will say, "This is urgent, yes or

20:29

no. Escalate, yes or no. And if you

20:33

escalate, send this to this department

20:35

or that department." Right? Is that

20:37

>> Yes, and also

20:40

Ooh, there there's like like interesting

20:42

nuance here, where

20:44

um

20:45

not to just You don't just ask Jave,

20:47

"Should I escalate?" Because that's a

20:49

very high-level decision. Like uh you

20:51

know, it requires experience and trust

20:53

with working with someone to know if you

20:55

should escalate or not. Um

20:57

the idea is that you can keep on

20:59

decomposing your questions into like the

21:01

lowest level You you we have the ability

21:04

to break it to down. Like, "Oh, I want

21:07

to filter out all inbound sales from my

21:10

inbox and I want to maybe filter out

21:12

like recruits emailing me, right?

21:15

Because like we have like a like a a

21:17

specific email list for that. Like that

21:19

might make sense, but there might be a

21:21

world like oh, I've been I filtered out

21:23

the wrong email. Let me add new

21:24

behavior. An example is if someone else

21:27

is on an email, I probably shouldn't be

21:29

on that email. But if they say, "Diego,

21:32

can you look at this?" Maybe I should

21:33

all of a sudden see that. And this is

21:36

like nuanced smart behavior that

21:39

requires like a smart person to think

21:41

about that behavior. So either way a

21:42

system is getting programmed either by

21:44

natural language or code, but if you do

21:46

it by code, it's cheaper, faster, and

21:49

guaranteed to run.

21:51

And the idea is you can keep on

21:53

like drilling down into the behavior you

21:56

want as you make it more and more and

21:57

more great for your use case rather than

22:00

with LMC, there's only so much control

22:02

you have.

22:03

>> And the developer gets a score back for

22:06

whatever little

22:08

sort of unit they're focusing on. Is

22:11

that email

22:13

angry or not angry? 0.85.

22:17

And if it's above 0.9, then trigger this

22:21

action. If it's below, don't trigger

22:23

that action.

22:24

>> Yeah. Yes, and also actually your your

22:26

note on the probabilities is also really

22:29

really great. There's a reason why we do

22:31

that and we learned this the hard way.

22:34

Like when we like shipped the open AI

22:36

models, they don't have like

22:38

fine-grained controls and what ends up

22:40

happening is I'll use the simplest

22:42

analogy which is refusals, right? Like

22:44

how does it make sense that you have a

22:46

response

22:47

>> is when the model refuses to answer.

22:49

>> Yes, I'm sorry, I can't do that. And

22:51

it's kind of crazy that for some

22:52

responses, you just refresh it and

22:55

sometimes it refuses, sometimes it

22:56

doesn't. Like that's insane behavior.

22:58

And also, if you're building on top of

23:00

this, the your threshold for refusals

23:03

might be very different, right? Like if

23:05

you are Disney, you probably have an

23:07

extremely different threshold for

23:08

refusals than if you are Character AI,

23:12

right? Like Character AI likes to do

23:13

like role play and stuff. Disney is very

23:15

protective of their characters and IP.

23:17

It doesn't make sense to just have a

23:19

discrete decision. The most powerful way

23:22

to empower developers is to give them

23:24

back as much information as you can, so

23:27

they can then choose for their

23:29

application what is the threshold. Like,

23:31

oh, I accidentally misclassified an

23:34

email from an extremely important

23:35

investor. Let me tune that threshold

23:37

lower because I'm okay with false

23:40

positives. I really can't stand false

23:42

negatives.

23:43

>> And the reason why Jev is much faster

23:47

and much cheaper and I know that's only

23:51

part of the claim and that the the

23:52

bigger claim is intelligence everywhere.

23:53

>> Thank you. You listened to me. Hell

23:55

yeah. Hell yeah.

23:56

>> The devolution is in motion. So, why is

23:58

it able to be faster and cheaper? Is

24:01

that because it's taking a subset of the

24:04

problem or is that because it doesn't

24:07

have to go through the whole next token

24:10

generation than an NLM would otherwise

24:13

do?

24:14

>> I actually can't talk about that without

24:16

the intelligence. If I wanted a faster

24:18

model, I could just chop half the

24:19

network out, right? And then you have

24:21

something twice as fast, right? Or twice

24:23

as cheap or whatever else. So, it's very

24:25

hard to talk about that without

24:27

intelligence on its own. Like obviously

24:29

we're in a new quantum of speed and uh

24:32

because we toss out the very slow,

24:35

expensive part of text generation. So,

24:37

you know, we we've talked about that. We

24:39

are obviously not auto regressive. We

24:42

much prefer I like this parallel, you

24:44

know, gradual discovery of what the

24:47

right thing is, but what

24:49

I think people don't really realize is

24:53

not to just like the obvious engineering

24:56

part, you know, like chopping off parts

24:58

that are slow.

24:59

But, the you get what you optimize for

25:01

part. And the we want to extract

25:05

intelligence in the best, richest, most

25:09

dense way out of these beautiful

25:11

cognitive cores that AI already is. So,

25:14

I I I think

25:16

you know, the the tragedy before our

25:18

launch was that AI is so clearly

25:20

unbelievable, but so useless for most

25:22

things. And it's not to just that we put

25:25

a plug on it's not just like tossing out

25:28

the bad part, but also like smoothing

25:31

out the intelligence and making it as

25:32

robust as it can be to surface that

25:35

intelligence. And

25:37

it it can't be talked about without the

25:39

other stuff.

25:39

>> So, it's faster and cheaper to play back

25:42

what you've said so far

25:43

because you've removed certain parts

25:46

and you polished the the rest. So, the

25:49

the part that you removed enabled you to

25:51

do this ultimately very specific job,

25:54

very important and very ubiquitous kind

25:56

of job, but but specific job faster

25:59

because in some ways it's specialized

26:00

for that job.

26:01

>> There's a bit of an implicat-

26:03

Oh, man, I get into my nuance and I love

26:05

it.

26:06

I would actually argue that it is not

26:09

narrow and specific. Like, you could

26:11

fine-tune small language models to be

26:13

narrow and specific, but I would argue

26:15

that classification is AI complete. And

26:19

like, you know, the field has talked

26:20

about this for a long time. Like, a

26:22

general-purpose universal verifier or

26:25

classifier is absolutely AI complete

26:28

because it's easy to turn this thing

26:29

into

26:30

like, even if you wanted text out, which

26:31

I think is somewhat rare for a system,

26:34

you could turn it into that if it was

26:35

perfect. So, I would argue that it's not

26:38

like narrow and specific, it's just a

26:39

different shape of intelligence. And

26:42

that is, you know, it's a it's its own

26:45

big general branch, and there's going to

26:47

be so many beautiful sub branches of

26:49

this. You know, we have three types

26:50

right now, but we are going to have so

26:52

many more and we're going to show the

26:54

world why we didn't call them decision

26:56

models.

26:57

Um,

26:57

so oh,

26:59

it's a

27:01

it to me it's about like how do we use

27:04

these incredible compressions of human

27:07

intelligence as effectively as possible

27:10

and

27:11

uh

27:12

yeah, it it's it's beyond the just

27:14

removing the obvious slow parts.

27:16

>> Okay, great. Let's talk about

27:18

why

27:20

language models are not able to do this

27:24

uh and why a whole new family uh needs

27:28

to be invented to to do this. And so my

27:32

understanding uh is that uh part of the

27:36

root of the problem is RLHF which you're

27:40

one of the co-inventors of uh which

27:42

served uh its purpose incredibly well

27:45

for what it was supposed to do, however,

27:47

comes with uh a set of side problems uh

27:52

which in particular are are bad for the

27:54

mission at hand. So, maybe let's let's

27:57

uh start again in an effort to make this

27:59

approachable by by a bunch of people.

28:01

What is RLHF at the simplest level?

28:05

>> Ooh.

28:06

I would describe as

28:08

RLHF as

28:10

making models chat and making models

28:14

pleasing for chat.

28:15

>> Because so models are pre-trained so

28:18

they have the whole all the knowledge in

28:19

the world. Uh however, turning them into

28:23

something that can converse in a

28:25

requires them expressing certain type of

28:28

preference in certain ways of

28:29

interacting with human, right?

28:31

>> And lots of stylistic stuff. Actually, I

28:33

think a lot of the optimization for RLHF

28:35

in hindsight looks extremely stylistic

28:38

rather than is it about, you know, like

28:41

being better at like tapping into its

28:44

facts deep into its network.

28:46

>> RLHF stands for reinforcement learning

28:48

from uh human feedback. So, how are

28:51

humans involved initially when you guys

28:54

did that?

28:55

>> So, actually there's many different

28:57

parts of RLHF. I think I started working

29:00

on it perhaps end of 2020,

29:04

but there was like predecessor work to

29:06

be clear that I would want to call out.

29:08

So, I think that we built on top of the

29:11

shoulders of giants and many of those

29:12

predecessor works could be called RLHF

29:15

as well. I'm happy to cite them now, but

29:17

I if it's a

29:19

I'm not going to do it right now. I've

29:20

I've cited them in other spots. Um the

29:23

the thing that made RLHF RLHF in my

29:25

opinion is about the task. The task

29:28

about optimizing for human preference

29:30

and the shape of it as being text in

29:33

text out. That I think is kind of

29:36

on on arbitrary instructions. Uh that

29:39

that's to me is the root of what

29:40

originally RLHF was. At the time we were

29:42

still trying to figure out this shape. I

29:45

think it's very obvious in hindsight,

29:46

but there was a lot of uncertainty. We

29:49

were kind of like the black sheep of

29:50

Open AI. Um and it

29:54

like no one likes putting expensive

29:56

humans in loop because it's very hard to

29:58

iterate on it. And we were really trying

30:00

to figure out like, hey, will this work?

30:02

Because when we were playing

30:03

whack-a-mole with the issues, like

30:05

things kept coming up and we kept having

30:07

to solve them until we made it like

30:08

really general and pleasing and good. I

30:11

believe that the hardest part of

30:13

creating a new direction in AI is even

30:16

knowing the task. So, if we knew in

30:18

hindsight the task should be shaped this

30:20

way, it's possible it would have taken

30:23

us

30:24

like it would have been way way way

30:25

faster at this. But because of that

30:27

uncertainty, it was a little

30:29

a little bit harder to figure out like,

30:30

yes, the way to do this is data, make

30:32

this diverse data, and also like even

30:34

the specification for labelers, like

30:36

here is how to label these things

30:39

because this is the thing we want out.

30:41

These are things that we didn't know at

30:42

the time, which everyone who copied us

30:45

didn't have to figure out because we had

30:47

done all of the hard work of that

30:49

iteration and then published it in a

30:50

paper.

30:51

Not to have a stab at them, but I do

30:53

want to call out that a lot of the hard

30:56

part is the discovery here and I think

30:58

that that's a lot of our hard part with

31:01

Type-Safe. So, we are to our best proxy

31:05

optimizing for human preferences and

31:07

that is why you never get outputs that

31:10

obviously look bad, even though they

31:12

might be equivalently bad to one that is

31:14

just wrong, but you never have models

31:16

where you never have outputs these days,

31:17

even though the models are wrong all the

31:19

time,

31:19

where you can just look at it and be

31:20

like, this is clearly crap. Um because

31:23

it's that's punished so hard and this

31:26

like really warps the probability space

31:28

for these models.

31:28

>> Yep. So, uh and we we're talking about

31:30

all of this because again, that's sort

31:32

of the heart of the of the problem. Um

31:35

so, because the models were trained to

31:39

please humans and sound confident as

31:42

part of that process of RLHF,

31:45

uh then that's why you end up with

31:46

issues like sycophancy, over-refusal

31:51

that that you alluded to.

31:52

>> And also like mode dropping. Like, the

31:55

models the RLHF models are very um

31:59

stylistically repetitive. You know, they

32:01

they're all like repetitive in different

32:03

ways, but you can like kind of get a

32:04

sense if you use a model a lot, like,

32:06

wow, it keeps saying this thing, you

32:09

know, and that is a side effect of RLHF

32:11

because RLHF heavily encourages the

32:13

models to stay on their on their

32:16

stylistic lane because that's the safe

32:18

path to not get punished. And this this

32:21

results in like a lack of creativity

32:25

that

32:25

pre-trained models didn't have.

32:27

Pre-trained models were like wild and

32:29

creative and weird and they have like

32:30

all of the styles in the internet inside

32:32

of them and they sometimes just go

32:34

completely off the rails, which is

32:35

beautiful and they didn't have this

32:38

particular problem that I think people

32:39

are

32:40

from what I've seen kind of dislike in

32:42

LLMs.

32:42

>> Great. So, again, all RLHF great for all

32:45

of us to discover the power of

32:48

generative AI through a chat experience,

32:51

but bad for the problem of

32:53

classification because you have over

32:54

refusal, you have sequency, then you

32:57

also have the latency and overhead

33:01

problem that we alluded to that because

33:04

the model was trying to do text-to-text,

33:07

then it needs to auto regressively

33:10

generate prose line by line and sound

33:13

very confident doing it, which is which

33:15

is not helpful if you're trying to say

33:17

customer angry not angry or problem yes

33:20

yes or no.

33:21

>> I agree with all of that. Though, I will

33:24

emphasize that

33:25

I do believe RLHF makes the models

33:28

slightly [snorts] dumber at decisions

33:30

than you know than the pre-trained

33:32

models. The

33:34

the root of the problem to me is that

33:37

RLHF actually greatly increased

33:39

expectations. So, if you imagine like

33:41

how good the models are from human

33:43

perception versus like reality,

33:46

RLHF really warped that because all of a

33:49

sudden people were like, "Holy smokes,

33:51

these models are really really smart. We

33:54

can do all sorts of stuff with them."

33:56

And that decoupling is I think quite

33:59

harmful to the world. And that to me is

34:02

was my biggest worry here. So,

34:04

like you you know, no one

34:07

you know, like the expectations for

34:08

pre-trained models were very different,

34:10

but because RLHF models are so pleasing

34:13

to humans and they seem so smart, they

34:16

it

34:17

makes people think like, "Holy smokes, a

34:19

lot of stuff can be automated." And that

34:21

empirically did not happen.

34:22

>> So, that's RLHF, which is a key part of

34:26

post-training. People may have heard of

34:28

other parts of post-training, RLVR in in

34:32

particular, which is how models have

34:34

gotten very good at at math or or

34:36

coding. Maybe define very quickly what

34:38

it is and then explain why it's

34:41

not solving the problem you're trying to

34:43

solve using

34:43

>> Ooh. So, RLVR is short for reinforcement

34:46

learning from verifiable rewards or for

34:49

I I don't actually know that one, but

34:52

the idea is for simply evaluatable

34:56

test cases, kind of like a math problem

34:59

or like a proof or something like that

35:01

where you you know an answer.

35:03

Or like you want to pass the unit tests.

35:05

Can you do a lot of stuff in between to

35:08

write code to pass those unit tests or

35:10

to write math to to get that final

35:12

answer. And a really key part of RLVR is

35:15

not just the verifiable rewards because

35:17

people have been trying to do RL on

35:20

verifiable rewards

35:22

for many years before RLVR was created.

35:24

It just so happened that it didn't work.

35:26

So, the code gen team at OpenAI was

35:28

trying for quite a while and it just

35:31

never really worked because you actually

35:33

needed like this reasoning chain in the

35:36

middle to do all sorts of creative stuff

35:39

in between so that you could get answers

35:41

that like pass the unit tests

35:43

and the math and all of that stuff. So,

35:46

RLVR also means like the training for

35:49

reasoning. You know, with this like

35:51

stuff in between in the middle where you

35:53

can do arbitrarily complicated stuff

35:54

sometimes. So,

35:56

RLVR is a lot about passing simply

36:01

evaluatable checks and RLVR

36:05

you know, RLHF caused a massive over

36:06

promise under deliver based on like

36:08

human feel of AI, but RLHF actually

36:12

started plateauing on benchmarks.

36:14

But RLVR does not plateau on benchmarks

36:17

at all. Like RLVR crushes every

36:19

benchmark because by construction RLVR

36:23

is kind of the shape of the task if you

36:25

wanted to crush benchmarks. You know,

36:27

like benchmarks are by construction the

36:29

simply evaluate all things

36:32

that is just perfectly matches the shape

36:34

of it and it causes a different type of

36:37

over promise under deliver. They're all

36:39

the others obviously very very cool

36:41

though. I think actually I think RLHF is

36:43

very cool too.

36:45

But I just worry about the lack of

36:47

automation and empirically RLVR hasn't

36:50

really changed automation.

36:51

>> Yeah, so RLVR doesn't help us in the

36:54

problem we're discussing uh because it

36:57

focuses on rewarding the final solution

37:00

whereas what we're trying to do here is

37:03

probability

37:05

uh and understanding

37:08

uh

37:08

and this thing

37:09

>> It takes the stochastic. It's also like

37:11

unreliable and like

37:14

um it it I think people like the word

37:16

jagged.

37:18

Um you know, like it is sometimes

37:20

incredibly smart. Like the way I like to

37:22

describe it is 95% Einstein, 5% Mr.

37:26

Bean. And if it doesn't tell you when

37:28

it's the Mr. Bean, then how are you

37:30

going to automate anything? You know? So

37:33

it's jaggedness and you know,

37:36

non-robustness I think is the real issue

37:38

with it because it's very good at

37:39

answering like simple classifications

37:42

too. But if it doesn't do it reliably,

37:44

how do you automate anything in the

37:46

first place? And that's kind of where

37:47

calibration comes in and the models are

37:49

still not very good at that.

37:51

>> Okay, great. All right. So RLHF kind of

37:54

creates the problem. RLVR

37:57

doesn't help us. So therefore you guys

38:00

had to invent a new post training method

38:04

that you call RL STDY. Is that uh

38:08

correct? And if so, just explain as much

38:11

as you can share what it is.

38:13

>> I don't know if I would call it a post

38:15

training method

38:16

because like you know, when we made

38:19

RLHF, the concept of post training did

38:21

not exist. And you could call RLHF a

38:24

fine-tuning method, but that undersells

38:27

how much change you did to the whole

38:28

process. So, like no one would just call

38:31

it fine-tuning even though it maybe

38:32

there's some technically correct way

38:34

where like that's 80% accurate. So, I

38:36

wouldn't necessarily call what we're

38:38

doing post-training. Um I think we do a

38:41

lot of

38:42

weird stuff. Um I think that RL tends to

38:46

be again a implementation detail of the

38:49

whole task. You know, for RLHF, the task

38:52

was not just doing RL on PPO and

38:55

whatever. It's about figuring out here's

38:57

what the inputs and outputs should look

38:58

like and here's how you instruct people

39:00

to do that and here's what our North

39:01

Star is and here's how we balance the

39:03

data sets to get a really good model for

39:05

this thing.

39:06

And for RLVR, you have similar stuff.

39:08

RLVR is nothing without its like latent

39:11

reasoning, you know, it's reasoning

39:12

chains. And then this enables you to

39:15

have like a new mixture of data sets,

39:17

how you construct the data sets or even

39:19

what difficulty of data set you want

39:21

completely changes with your base models

39:23

in shape and all of that. So, uh the RL

39:26

tends to be like a like a like a small

39:29

slice of the whole task pie. Um and, you

39:33

know, we did have to make a new type of

39:36

training, you know, that we do call RLCD

39:39

because no one has done anything to

39:41

optimize for machine native

39:42

intelligence. But I just I don't want it

39:45

to sound like if you found the right RL

39:47

algorithm, it just magically gets solved

39:49

because so many things go into it beyond

39:53

just the RL.

39:54

>> So, to be able to do training, you need

39:56

to a bunch of data. This is data for a

40:00

very specific kind of task in the new

40:02

paradigm that you're inventing. Where

40:04

does that data come from?

40:06

>> So, I'm going to use the analogies in

40:08

the past cuz I think that that's an

40:10

effective way to answer this. Before we

40:13

made instruction following a thing,

40:15

the data for instruction following

40:18

literally did not exist in the world.

40:20

Like no one had like here's a human

40:22

answering simple strings. No one had

40:24

preference data from like outputs of

40:26

LLMs to see like which one is better.

40:28

So, this straight up did not exist in

40:30

the world and in creating the task,

40:33

we had to

40:34

create the shape of the data, iterate on

40:37

it, and also collect that data.

40:40

Similarly for RLVR, um the data in RLVR

40:43

tends to be environments, right? Like

40:45

these RL environments to like

40:47

like try stuff with like sandboxes and

40:48

tools and whatever else. And those

40:51

environments kind of existed before RLVR

40:53

was created, but they were not useful

40:55

and there was no market for all of those

40:57

data sets because no one could train on

40:59

them.

41:00

Um so, similarly for us, we needed to

41:02

like create a new type of data, a new

41:05

shape of data, iterate on that, and then

41:07

actually create the data itself.

41:09

So, by construction for all of these

41:12

things, these always need to be made

41:14

in-house and they always start in-house

41:16

because that is how you even

41:19

iterate and think about the shape of it.

41:21

So, we have done all of it in-house and

41:24

that as far as I can tell is going to

41:26

stay the case for quite a long while

41:29

um because

41:31

uh you know, the world has no idea what

41:33

it's doing right now and all the world

41:34

experts are our team. So, um you we just

41:37

make it ourselves. We obviously don't

41:39

need user data. None of those

41:41

things do. It's It always requires

41:44

a lot of care for the task and really

41:47

understanding what the North Star is.

41:49

>> You had a a great post uh recently

41:51

called the bitterest lesson in

41:54

um in relation to uh Rich Sutton's uh

41:57

you know, uh

41:58

extremely famous um essay uh walk us

42:01

through through what that is and uh

42:04

where RLCD fits. Uh are you you know,

42:08

you data, compute, algorithm? Where

42:10

where where what do you actually argue

42:12

that all of the great methods of

42:15

training fit in the exact same way,

42:17

which is they are novel tasks. I'll walk

42:20

you through it first though. So,

42:21

Sutton's bitter lesson

42:24

roughly paraphrased is that compute and

42:26

scaling matters more than algorithms.

42:28

So, when people are like bitter lesson

42:30

build, scaling law build, etc. This

42:33

often means like why does it matter what

42:35

algorithms we do?

42:36

Let's just scale it up and throw more

42:38

compute at the problem.

42:40

I would argue that this is an

42:40

oversimplification specifically for the

42:43

kinds of RL environments that Sutton

42:46

used to work on at the time. He's RL is

42:49

often done in games and in games there's

42:51

no question about task and data cuz

42:53

these are all functions of compute. But

42:55

in the real world, you can't really do

42:57

anything with compute without the data.

42:59

You know, like you can't continue to

43:01

scale pre-training on the internet cuz

43:03

we've run out of internet data.

43:05

And data is like obviously the most

43:08

important thing there. But in order to

43:09

even know what the data should look like

43:11

is you need the task. You know, you need

43:13

to know the shape of the task, you need

43:14

to understand it. This task needs to be

43:16

linked to valuable things in the real

43:18

world and the simple way of explaining

43:21

it is you get what you optimize for.

43:22

Everyone seems to intuitively understand

43:24

this except for machine learning

43:25

researchers because they don't like to

43:27

think about that.

43:28

Um but you get what you optimize for and

43:30

you need to know what you optimize for.

43:32

And once you do know that, you can then

43:35

make data, scale compute, and have

43:36

fancier algorithms. So, for RLHF is to

43:40

me

43:41

a task. You know, like making models

43:43

good at instruction following in chat is

43:45

a task itself. It has its own shape of

43:48

data, its own algorithms, its own

43:49

compute, etc. But the biggest bang you

43:52

get is always from even figuring out the

43:54

task in the first place. You know, chat

43:56

to GPT to pre-chat GPT was the largest

43:59

jump in chatbot intelligence ever

44:01

because it was kind of like an adult,

44:03

you know, battling toddlers, right? I

44:05

don't know if you are too. You know,

44:07

Q-star and O1 were like on a league of

44:10

their own, right? Like it

44:12

wasn't They weren't really used for

44:14

anything useful in the world, but they

44:16

were truly in a league of their own in

44:18

terms of benchmarks, right? That's

44:20

incredible. It was like the equivalent

44:21

of like the adults to the toddlers. And

44:23

similarly, because we're the only ones

44:25

optimizing for a machine native

44:26

intelligence, it is all of them are the

44:29

right path. It is kind of like the adult

44:31

versus toddler situation where we're in

44:32

a league of our own, at least from like

44:34

a reliable machine native intelligence

44:36

perspective, because we're the only ones

44:38

doing the whole thing.

44:39

>> And you you don't do pre-training,

44:42

though, right? Like do you Where where

44:44

What is the basis for Jeff? Like do you

44:46

use like open weights models?

44:49

>> We do use a combination of models. It's

44:53

like pre-trained models have a lot of

44:55

like compressed intelligence in them.

44:58

They're very text-shaped, so we need to

45:00

do like some disgusting things for it.

45:02

That's why I don't say what we do is

45:03

post-training per se, because again,

45:06

these disgusting things

45:08

um

45:09

I wouldn't call it post-training as a

45:11

person who likes post-training. It's

45:12

kind of a bastardization of

45:13

post-training. I don't think

45:15

post-training people would want to be

45:16

associated with the terrible terrible

45:18

things we do. But um there's just a lot

45:20

of intelligence like in the variety of

45:23

open weight models that we can, you

45:25

know, link up and MacGyver into this

45:28

great intelligence.

45:30

Um

45:30

So, we do use that. Um you know,

45:33

everyone knows that we raised less than

45:35

$40 million until recently. So, it's

45:38

either we've had like an absolutely

45:40

tremendous breakthrough in in

45:41

pre-training or we just are more

45:43

resourceful than other people. I think

45:45

it's the latter. Uh but uh we did not do

45:48

pre-training, and honestly, I think

45:49

pre-training is a giant dumpster fire of

45:52

wasting resources. So, I hope to never

45:54

do so, but who knows what the future

45:56

will bring.

45:56

>> So, the existence of that pre-trained

45:58

model um is it segue into the whole uh

46:02

classifier conversation that you alluded

46:03

to earlier? There's is of people when

46:05

Jeff came out that said, well, it's just

46:07

a classifier.

46:09

And for context, a classifier being

46:11

effectively an older form of machine

46:15

learning, you know, pre-generative AI,

46:18

things like XGBoost

46:20

that have been used for many, many years

46:22

for things like email spam

46:24

classification. In what way, and I know

46:27

you embrace the fact that you're in some

46:28

ways a classifier. So, in what way are

46:30

you a classifier? And in what way do

46:33

people that say that you're a classifier

46:35

miss the entire point?

46:37

>> ML people,

46:38

uh especially researchers, really miss

46:41

the value of Jeff still. Um and that's a

46:44

really good for us because it's not

46:46

fancy ML. And "It's just a classifier"

46:49

is among the dumbest um criticisms, in

46:52

my opinion, because classifiers again uh

46:55

classifiers are not a form of old-school

46:57

machine learning. You know, sorry to

46:59

dive the path for you, but classifiers

47:01

are an interface. They are the shape of

47:04

putting intelligence into software

47:06

systems that's useful. Right? Like, how

47:09

does Facebook work? Classifiers. How

47:11

does TikTok work? Classifiers. How does

47:13

Google work? Classifiers.

47:15

It's not like a bad thing at all,

47:16

because in order to make software more

47:19

powerful, software can do so much with

47:20

its like it's like dumb little bit

47:22

comparisons, is you want to put your

47:25

intelligence into branching in your code

47:28

in order to do complex behaviors. And

47:30

the way to do that is to influence the

47:32

branching via

47:34

you know, intelligence, which is what

47:36

classifiers literally are. So,

47:38

classifiers what we do think you is not

47:41

only classifiers, but we've started with

47:43

classifiers because they are super duper

47:45

useful. You know, it's a it's an

47:47

incredible compliment to say it's a

47:49

classifier. And actually, this would be

47:51

a not a fair way to describe Jeff

47:53

because it's too much of a compliment if

47:55

we said that

47:57

Jeff was equivalent to anyone having

47:59

like a 20-person machine learning

48:01

engineering team from 2019 to build

48:05

every single thing you think about on

48:06

the fly and it's instantly done. But

48:08

actually it's smarter than that because

48:10

we have better models today than we did

48:12

then. And like like I

48:14

I don't know if we're there yet, but

48:16

that's a hugely awesome compliment and

48:18

machine learning people don't get that

48:20

because they're too busy like trying to

48:22

do like the the the least valuable part

48:25

Bitwise lesson, which is algorithms and

48:27

they keep trying to like build their god

48:29

in a data center rather than solving

48:31

real problems and see the real world and

48:33

see how little automation truly is

48:34

getting done.

48:35

>> And uh to the god point you have like

48:37

this awesome saying which was actually

48:39

also on the t-shirt of your launch video

48:40

saying

48:41

prod not not god, which uh

48:43

>> We're we're building prod not god,

48:44

absolutely.

48:45

>> Yeah, a a a fabulous way of of

48:48

of putting it. Um and to

48:52

unpack some of this, so your typical

48:55

classifier from 2019 was also focused on

48:58

a very narrow task and

49:01

what you're saying is that

49:04

effectively because this sits on top of

49:07

a pre-trained model that has all the

49:10

knowledge in the world, you're basically

49:12

able to apply classification to any

49:15

task.

49:17

Is that is that

49:18

>> Any task any task that the LLMs can do,

49:21

right? And that's why we call them

49:22

system one models because they are good

49:24

at system one tasks, you know, or

49:26

they're adjacent to that.

49:28

>> But you don't need to train a an email

49:31

spam classifier because the the

49:34

pre-trained model has all the knowledge

49:35

in the world about

49:37

about emails.

49:38

>> Yes, and you know, with a decomposition,

49:40

like you you might not even want a spam

49:42

classifier because that'll be the same

49:44

for everyone. You might want like your

49:46

own thing where I want to say

49:48

emails from my chief of staff, even if

49:50

she writes like AI, should be marked as

49:52

not spam. So, it's like the

49:55

programmability I think this unlocks so

49:57

many more use cases, even if you had the

50:00

equivalent of every engineer having a

50:02

team of MLEs, machine learning

50:03

engineers, like making classifiers for

50:05

them. So, I think that there's like a

50:07

real real beauty to the generality and

50:09

programmability of it.

50:11

>> Yes. And to make sure we cover this very

50:12

very important part of the the whole

50:15

discussion, you mentioned

50:16

programmability,

50:18

uh you mentioned composability earlier.

50:21

We talked about price and speed. Uh and

50:25

basically the the the the fundamental

50:26

claim is that if all of this is is is

50:29

true and happens and you guys are very

50:31

much building it, then it can be

50:33

ubiquitous across software.

50:35

>> That is the dream. I hope for

50:37

Oh, man. I have grand hopes that I think

50:40

are not even that unrealistic.

50:42

I think that

50:44

so much could change in software. Like,

50:47

you know, look at how much was done with

50:50

bit comparisons. You know, we have been

50:53

building

50:55

like so much valuable sick stuff. Like,

50:58

you know, just look at 2019 software has

51:00

like I think made the world a lot

51:02

better. Like, sure there were some

51:03

misses, but like we've automated so many

51:06

things via these simple like sticks and

51:09

stones comparisons. And imagine if we

51:12

can just expand that more more more more

51:15

more. I think that

51:17

I think that like

51:19

we'll be able to automate so many

51:21

freaking awesome things. I think that

51:23

the future will be unbelievably sci-fi,

51:26

and we're going to do whatever we can to

51:28

like unearth the intelligence that is

51:30

like robust enough to make it even more

51:33

sci-fi.

51:33

>> And that's means

51:36

again like to play it back, it could be

51:37

it could be intelligence like in every

51:40

row or column of a database, right? So,

51:43

it's it's just embedded intelligence

51:45

across all things software.

51:47

>> Absolutely. Across all levels of

51:49

software, too. And I think that with

51:51

this stacking, as you make, you know,

51:54

like this valuable box and then

51:56

replicate it, and if you make it fast

51:57

and cheap enough, now some other box can

51:59

call this thing 100 times, and now you

52:02

can do higher and higher units of

52:05

cognitive automation work, and who knows

52:08

what those things are going to be, but I

52:09

think that there can be like a lot of

52:11

insanely cool things.

52:13

>> Yeah. And that's flipping on its head or

52:15

in some ways a complement to everything

52:17

that I've been doing in software and AI

52:19

to date, right? So, the the cursors of

52:22

the or the cognition have been very good

52:24

at accelerating the pace and the the how

52:28

easy it is to create software, but what

52:31

you're saying is is is different. It's

52:33

it's that you can embed intelligence in

52:35

software.

52:36

>> Exactly. So, the great question. The

52:38

cursors and cognitions focus more on

52:41

writing the software itself faster and

52:43

cheaper, presumably.

52:45

While what we want to be, instead of

52:47

like like kind of being like a So, what

52:49

they're doing is being kind of like a

52:50

software engineer, but what we are

52:53

trying to be is more like a logic gate.

52:55

You know, like we want to be inside of

52:56

the software that expands the

52:58

possibilities that software engineers

53:01

can make, rather than, you know,

53:02

replacing the software engineers or

53:04

anything like that.

53:05

>> Great. Let's talk about all the

53:06

copycats, quote and unquote, because

53:09

that's you know, a topic that's top of

53:11

mind on X and everything. So, for

53:13

anybody that hasn't followed, so you

53:14

guys have been out of stealth for 3

53:15

weeks, and then in the 3 weeks you've

53:17

had

53:19

basically every everybody and their

53:20

brother come up with with something from

53:24

Cloudflare to Databricks to I think

53:27

Microsoft just last night

53:29

Satya announced a decision-one category.

53:33

What do you make of that, and what do

53:35

you say to the naysayers?

53:37

>> The naysayers of us?

53:38

>> Yeah, the the people that think that you

53:40

were

53:41

just completely copied by everyone in 3

53:43

weeks and therefore there's nothing left

53:46

which obviously is not the narrative but

53:48

I'm curious like how you position it.

53:50

>> I think we'll really see.

53:53

Like I don't want to

53:55

punch down too much but I would like to

53:57

describe my take of things.

54:00

When I first started this project I

54:03

literally thought it would take a week.

54:05

Like I and I ended up with something

54:07

very similar to what people are doing

54:09

but the problem is it was really really

54:12

clearly not robust.

54:14

And that was something that is like

54:16

plagued me for years.

54:19

Um

54:20

and I get the sense that this is a thing

54:22

that to be clear I'm a machine learning

54:24

researcher so all my self-deprecating

54:26

comments all those deprecating comments

54:27

apply to me. I was an arrogant person

54:30

who thought algorithms are the way to go

54:32

and like oh yeah I can just you know do

54:34

these shape rotations myself and make

54:36

this happen.

54:37

Um

54:38

so I was able to make things like this

54:40

in the first week of this project as

54:42

well and the problem was at least in my

54:45

experience that at the time is it was so

54:47

unbelievably dumb that it was

54:49

embarrassing. Like getting the shape of

54:51

something and and like copying existing

54:53

interface is very very easy.

54:57

Similar to what Google did with Flan

55:00

back in the days of like RLHF. Like we

55:02

actually had an early alpha they

55:03

actually published before us. They made

55:05

like a version of it and it is not just

55:08

bad it was worse than nothing.

55:11

Um so things like this can happen all

55:13

the time.

55:15

And I I'm curious about measuring how

55:18

good they actually are from like an

55:19

intellectual perspective. As far as I

55:21

can tell from the field they probably

55:24

are the equivalent of years behind us in

55:27

terms of like actual reliability but I

55:29

want to measure this before I like say

55:32

that to anyone else.

55:33

>> And you're not a you're not a fan of a

55:34

benchmark either in terms of like

55:36

measuring the

55:37

but

55:38

>> What was your post again? Benchmarks,

55:40

lies, and benchmarks?

55:41

>> and benchmarks or something like that.

55:43

>> Yeah.

55:44

>> So, benchmarks are like like they really

55:47

really hurt users. And they actually

55:50

hurt most the users who they think

55:52

they're meant to help, which is the

55:53

users who do not have the time to play

55:56

with things themselves. Like because

55:58

they are the ones who are most misled by

55:59

these. So, I get the sense that everyone

56:02

else is really optimizing for

56:04

benchmarks. And that is

56:08

I believe probably a bad strategy, but

56:10

again, we have better ways of measuring

56:12

intelligence, so we plan to do this. Um

56:15

my guess is that they are dumb and non

56:17

robust, but maybe that will be

56:20

sufficient for some people's works.

56:22

And if they solve people's problems,

56:24

I am super jazzed for that. Like

56:26

actually, I'm inspired by solving

56:29

people's problems. My only fear from

56:31

this and benchmark maxing is that it

56:34

might convince people that this entire

56:36

category of models doesn't work because

56:38

they use one of the dumb models instead

56:40

of our model. And my request for people

56:42

is that you don't have to believe in us.

56:44

Just try our model too at least and

56:48

stick with what works

56:50

because what actual There's like a lot

56:53

of nuance to making intelligence

56:55

reliable that machine learning

56:57

researcher types who really want credit

56:59

and all of that truly do not understand.

57:01

Um

57:03

and that's why we don't hire those

57:05

types.

57:06

>> Yeah, it's you know, playing playing

57:07

back this conversation in in in my mind

57:09

and like there's a lot of um

57:12

smart people in the community for sure.

57:15

You know, I mentioned certain companies.

57:16

Obviously, OpenAI released their own

57:19

product called Decisions just just a few

57:21

days ago, but playing back this

57:22

conversation

57:24

in my mind, it seems that what you guys

57:27

are doing is is very fundamental. You

57:29

know, this whole discussion we had

57:30

around RLHF and why that created problem

57:32

and how you removed it and replaced it

57:34

with something and your LCD and you need

57:36

specific data for that. That seems like

57:39

a lot of work. So, what did people do

57:41

then in in these two weeks? When you say

57:42

interface, they just took the results of

57:45

a regular NL and removed the text and

57:47

forced it into some kind of probability.

57:49

>> Exactly.

57:50

>> But they didn't do the work to get

57:51

there. They just removed the

57:53

>> or to get it to be reliable. And if this

57:56

solves people's problems, I am super

57:59

duper just for that. And actually I do

58:01

want to shout out Open AI's decision

58:03

API. For better or for worse, they did

58:05

not include benchmarks, so they are a

58:07

lot better than everyone else in my

58:09

books. So, in ideal world, they don't

58:11

try to No one tries to mis- mislead

58:13

users, but some companies need the

58:16

attention and hopefully they don't

58:17

create too much ill will. And at the

58:20

very least people try our models as well

58:23

so that

58:24

they can figure out what actually works

58:26

for them. But if the intelligence and

58:28

reliability that we have is not

58:29

necessary, I think use the other models.

58:32

That's great. You know, that like I want

58:35

problems solved and I want automation to

58:37

occur.

58:37

>> Cloudflare's version is open source. Is

58:39

that something that you guys are

58:40

thinking about?

58:41

>> We are thinking about it. We've had this

58:44

debate a lot. The issue is that it's

58:47

As so, as far as we can tell, our model

58:51

is by far the best. We think it's very

58:54

far from where we think is like totally

58:57

ready for everything. And we think that

59:00

having an API to iterate much much much

59:03

faster and serve people's needs way

59:05

better. So, we have talked about it. We

59:07

have thought about it. I would

59:10

I I we've not really committed to

59:12

anything, but I think something like

59:14

that could definitely be in the cards in

59:15

the future, especially as we go into

59:17

smaller and all on device and all of

59:20

those things. Like I just want reliable

59:22

intelligence everywhere. And I just

59:24

think that open source

59:26

people love open weights. I love open

59:28

weights, too, but it's not that

59:30

it's not the easiest to get everywhere

59:32

versus an API is. And then APIs way

59:35

easier to give people the vitamins that

59:37

they don't think they need. And as far

59:41

as I can tell, open source, at least in

59:44

the short term, will be a foot gun for

59:46

people. And I'm down to give some people

59:48

foot guns. Some, you know, software

59:50

engineers love foot guns.

59:52

We we think a lot about

59:54

how we would want a company to serve us

59:56

as engineers and given all that we know.

1:00:01

And that is just not in cards right now.

1:00:03

Yeah.

1:00:04

>> Okay, great. Fascinating. Let's talk

1:00:06

about

1:00:07

Type Safe, the the the the company.

1:00:09

So, in terms of um

1:00:11

what you're building and what the road

1:00:13

map is and and and and all the things.

1:00:15

So, first of all, and and realizing

1:00:17

that, you know, you're very much in the

1:00:19

in the building phase, at the same time

1:00:21

you you you're generating tremendous

1:00:23

revenue. I I I read somewhere that the

1:00:25

the the claim is that you're not going

1:00:26

to capture all of the LLM market, but

1:00:30

you're going to

1:00:31

capture a fraction of it and that this

1:00:33

is very much based on

1:00:36

the the Jevons paradox, which by the way

1:00:37

is the origin of the Jev the name. Do

1:00:39

you do you want to unpack that for us?

1:00:41

Like, how do you view the sort of

1:00:43

economic reality of the of the company?

1:00:45

How do you How do you go from here?

1:00:47

>> I see them as completely different

1:00:48

markets, kind of. I think in the short

1:00:51

term, maybe there's like some

1:00:53

some overlap in market because there

1:00:56

wasn't really a shape of general

1:00:58

classifier for workflow automation. So,

1:01:01

everyone was using LLMs for that. Um so,

1:01:04

I a lot of our usage right now is people

1:01:07

just switching over, but that really

1:01:10

shouldn't have been LLMs markets in the

1:01:12

first place. You know, it is just tragic

1:01:14

because that was the only tool

1:01:15

available. So, there's going to be like

1:01:17

an intrinsically system one model market

1:01:20

that I think will like continue to grow

1:01:22

doing awesome stuff which will be

1:01:24

completely separate from the LLM market.

1:01:26

So, I think that LLMs will continue to

1:01:29

be used for generating text, generating

1:01:32

code, all of the above. Like will it go

1:01:34

up and down over time as new

1:01:36

breakthroughs emerge? Absolutely. I hope

1:01:38

there's lots of new breakthroughs,

1:01:40

especially on the realm of token

1:01:41

efficiency, but that is me from like the

1:01:43

outside and the sidelines and just

1:01:45

cheering on science's progress. So, I

1:01:48

hope that this that stuff occurs. But I

1:01:50

just think that this whole make software

1:01:52

really powerful is a completely

1:01:55

different market than LLMs because LLMs

1:01:56

are just so bad at being inside

1:01:58

software.

1:02:00

And I obviously think that that market

1:02:02

will be huge because I think that you

1:02:04

know, the analogy to logic gates makes

1:02:06

me feel like

1:02:08

like intelligence will our our our

1:02:10

particular flavor of intelligence will

1:02:12

Jevons paradox.

1:02:13

And I think it will Jevons paradox a lot

1:02:15

more like semiconductors and silicon did

1:02:18

and continues to do more than for

1:02:20

example like gas does. You know, I think

1:02:23

as we find more and more stately use

1:02:26

cases to automate stuff and like get

1:02:28

successes and deploy it, people are

1:02:31

like, "Holy crap, there's a gold mine

1:02:32

here. Let's do more and more and more."

1:02:33

And as we make it cheaper and cheaper,

1:02:35

people are like, "Holy smokes, now this

1:02:38

old thing that was producing value, we

1:02:39

can, you know, wrap it in another for

1:02:42

loop, run it 10 to 100 times more, and

1:02:44

create all sorts of value for the world

1:02:46

in that way." So, I'm so excited about

1:02:49

that.

1:02:50

>> I'd love to finish on a sort of like

1:02:51

high-level note. So, you hold two

1:02:54

unusual positions that not everybody

1:02:57

holds. One one is that we are not on the

1:03:00

path to RSI, so AI

1:03:03

improving itself, so we're not on that

1:03:05

path.

1:03:06

But on the other hand, you said that AI

1:03:09

has now

1:03:11

averted the winter that

1:03:14

you thought might happen. So, walk us

1:03:17

through each and so your original take

1:03:19

for where the world is going in the you

1:03:22

know, next whatever year or two.

1:03:24

>> Following the RSI comment, I think I've

1:03:27

just been in the field long enough to

1:03:29

see this dance happen many, many times.

1:03:33

People see small percentage gains and

1:03:36

then they extrapolate it to like the

1:03:38

absolute moon when the reality is

1:03:40

Amdahl's law occurs. People used to give

1:03:43

the exact same story of RSI during the

1:03:46

neural architecture search days. This is

1:03:48

when you use neural networks to make

1:03:50

better architectures and they're like,

1:03:52

"Holy crap, it's 10% more efficient.

1:03:53

What if that more efficient thing then

1:03:55

like discovers the next thing and then

1:03:58

we repeat it until we get unbelievably

1:04:00

more efficient architectures." And that

1:04:01

entire field ended up getting thrown in

1:04:03

the trash cuz it was never useful.

1:04:05

Um

1:04:07

people don't understand diminishing

1:04:08

returns in the real world and I think

1:04:11

that it's going to be a similar thing

1:04:13

for the bottles of today as far as I can

1:04:15

tell. Obviously, I have error bars in my

1:04:17

predictions, but this keeps on happening

1:04:21

despite you know, people relatively

1:04:23

young to the field getting jazzed about

1:04:25

their first taste of self-improvement.

1:04:28

Um

1:04:28

so, I don't I don't think that that's

1:04:31

really happening based on the evidence

1:04:34

I've seen and based on my sense of where

1:04:36

the field is going. I do think that AI

1:04:40

is an incredible technology and we are

1:04:43

like under-leveraging it to absolutely

1:04:46

insane degrees and I just think that

1:04:48

this is like a just completely different

1:04:49

branch and I think that

1:04:52

AI winter may still happen in the sense

1:04:54

that

1:04:55

you know, the the stock prices of the

1:04:57

giant companies and the hyperscalers

1:04:58

whatever might crash down. The I don't

1:05:01

think the hyperscalers will just to be

1:05:02

clear, but I think that there could be

1:05:04

some market correction because everyone

1:05:07

is pricing in some sort of God moment.

1:05:10

Um so, that could be happening. I'm not

1:05:12

an at this, but the way AI winter I'm

1:05:14

worried about is AI continuing to be so

1:05:17

unbelievably useless at automation, and

1:05:19

I just think that that's not going to

1:05:20

happen anymore.

1:05:22

Um,

1:05:22

this whole like and to be clear, I think

1:05:25

that AI was still valuable, but just not

1:05:27

at automation. Love ChatGPT, love Claude

1:05:30

Code and Codex.

1:05:32

Um,

1:05:33

and still I don't think that that is

1:05:35

enough given how incredible AI is, and

1:05:39

I think almost everyone deep down feels

1:05:42

this way. Like chatbots are kind of feel

1:05:45

magical, and it's kind of weird how

1:05:47

little they've changed the world. So,

1:05:49

um, you'd expect, you know, if you

1:05:51

bottled up this intelligence and made it

1:05:52

super cheap, you could put it

1:05:53

everywhere. Yet, somehow every single

1:05:56

year you get like a famous failure of a

1:05:58

company failing to automate a drive-thru

1:06:00

because the chatbots are not reliable

1:06:01

enough. Like that that that's kind of

1:06:03

like a wild state of affairs, and like

1:06:04

that that is going to be addressed quite

1:06:06

quickly in my opinion.

1:06:08

>> Okay, wonderful. Uh, you're going to

1:06:09

It's been amazing.

1:06:11

I know you're working insane hours. By

1:06:14

the way, we're recording this on a

1:06:15

Saturday, which I guess

1:06:17

is just another day in the 996 world.

1:06:20

>> I will say that I don't I don't consider

1:06:21

us a 996 company. It's just a kind of a

1:06:24

crazy time. I think that we are as a

1:06:26

company quite adult and reasonable.

1:06:30

Um, and we have a very different North

1:06:32

Star than that. Um, and I just wouldn't

1:06:36

It's just a crazy time these days.

1:06:38

>> Fantastic to hear a voice a voice of

1:06:41

measure in this world. So, thank you so

1:06:43

much. Really appreciate it.

1:06:45

Congratulations on starting the J

1:06:47

evolution, and uh, excited to see what

1:06:51

you guys build next. Thank you so much.

1:06:52

>> Yes, and thank you for being part of it.

1:06:53

And if I Thank you to all the people who

1:06:56

are early believers. I will say this at

1:06:57

the end of everything because

1:07:00

we just didn't realize there were so

1:07:01

many people who had the same kinds of

1:07:03

problems as us, and I think that

1:07:07

still most of the people who've heard of

1:07:09

GIF don't get it. And that's okay

1:07:12

because the people who really need to

1:07:13

know about it know about it because the

1:07:16

people who do get it were like screaming

1:07:18

in joy on, you know, social media and to

1:07:21

their friend groups and private chats

1:07:22

and everything that like AI is finally a

1:07:26

little bit more sensible. So,

1:07:29

Shout outs to those people and we at

1:07:31

Type Safe are eternally grateful to

1:07:33

y'all.

1:07:34

>> Amazing. Thank you.

1:07:36

Hi, it's Matt Turk again. Thanks for

1:07:38

listening to this episode of the Mad

1:07:39

Podcast. If you enjoyed it, we'd be very

1:07:41

grateful if you would consider

1:07:43

subscribing if you haven't already or

1:07:45

leaving a positive review or comment on

1:07:47

whichever platform you're watching this

1:07:49

or listening to this episode from. This

1:07:51

really helps us build a podcast and get

1:07:53

great guests. Thanks and see you at the

1:07:55

next episode.

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