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The FULL Judith Curry Interview: Climate Scientist Says World Won't End

42:56EnglishTranscribed Jul 23, 2026
0:00

People are dying!

0:01

People are dying!

0:02

The planet's on ******* fire!

0:05

We must do more to fight climate change,

0:07

we're told, because:

0:09

This is an actual crisis!

0:11

But is it really a crisis?

0:13

Thanks to better technology,

0:15

climate related deaths are actually falling.

0:18

Still, the media tell us:

0:20

Experts say that we have until 2030

0:23

to avoid catastrophe.

0:24

Climate scientist, Judith Curry,

0:26

once was one of those alarmists.

0:28

Hurricane Katrina happened.

0:30

That changed everything.

0:32

Well, yes it did and I'm partly to blame for that.

0:37

Curry spoke about a link between

0:39

big storms and global warming.

0:41

I was co-author on a paper published in Science

0:45

that was actually published two weeks

0:47

following Katrina's devastation of New Orleans.

0:52

And in the paper, we analyzed

0:55

global hurricane intensity since 1970

0:58

and we found that the percent of

1:00

category four and five hurricanes

1:03

had doubled over that period.

1:06

Okay, we didn't really blame it on global warming.

1:09

We just put it out there,

1:11

"Here's what the data says."

1:12

And so this was picked up by the media

1:14

as a global warming catastrophe

1:17

and for the first time

1:19

the propagandists and the alarmist said

1:22

"oh here's the way to do it."

1:24

Tie extreme weather events to global warming.

1:28

Okay, it was very hard for people to say

1:30

"Well, one or two or even four degrees, who cares."

1:34

People couldn't really relate to why we should

1:36

even care about that much warming.

1:38

Just from day-to-day and day-to-night,

1:41

the temperature changes by more than that.

1:43

But now, if it's associated

1:45

with more intense killer hurricanes,

1:48

[wind]

1:49

now we have something to be worried about.

1:51

So this hysteria is your fault!

1:53

Well, sort of, not really.

1:55

They would have picked up on it anyways,

1:57

but I was there right at the beginning of this hysteria.

2:00

And this is the point when I entered the

2:02

public debate on climate change.

2:04

Of the four co-authors, I was the one

2:07

who was most familiar with the climate change debate

2:10

and so I became the spokesperson

2:13

for the team on climate change issues.

2:16

And I was adopted by the environmental advocacy groups

2:21

and the alarmists and I was treated like a rock star.

2:25

What does that mean "treated like a rock star?"

2:27

Oh my god, I was flown all over the place

2:30

to meet with politicians

2:32

and to give these talks and whatever

2:35

and lots of media attention and this, that, and the other.

2:38

And within about two months of that,

2:42

besides being exhausted,

2:44

I mean the main message

2:45

we wanted to get across is

2:46

if you're going to rebuild New Orleans,

2:49

you need to think about protecting it

2:51

from a category five.

2:52

Just don't rebuild what you already have.

2:54

That was a message that we wanted

2:56

to get out there, but no.

2:57

It became this big global warming.

2:59

Nobody was interested in that other argument.

3:01

I felt it was sort of my responsibility to be out there.

3:04

It's not a comfortable place for me.

3:05

I'm not somebody, I'm much happier

3:08

behind my desk at my computer

3:10

than talking to people.

3:13

And being part of this big political debate,

3:16

we were called terrible things by people

3:18

on the other side of the debate.

3:19

"You're in it for the money." You know,

3:23

"You're in it for personal fame and publicity."

3:25

And so I was demonized by

3:28

the people on the other side.

3:29

What do you mean the other side?

3:31

The people who didn't like the whole idea

3:33

of global warming, didn't buy it,

3:35

didn't think we needed to reduce fossil fuels.

3:38

Now called the deniers.

3:40

Now called the deniers.

3:41

Okay, so after a few months of this,

3:44

scientists were criticizing our study.

3:47

"Well the data wasn't any good in the 70's and 80's"

3:50

and "Oh this is natural variability."

3:53

And so like a good scientist,

3:54

I went in and investigated all that stuff.

3:56

Oh gosh!

3:57

You mean the data is no good in the 1970's?

3:59

I better check that out.

4:00

So I was taking these criticisms very seriously

4:03

and in all honesty,

4:06

I mean there are a lot of stupid criticisms,

4:08

but in all honesty,

4:09

a few of them stuck.

4:11

Like the data wasn't any good in the 1970's.

4:13

And I was really reflecting on all this.

4:16

And after being misquoted a couple times,

4:19

badly, in the news,

4:21

I said I'm done with interviews.

4:22

I am just done with this.

4:24

I am just done with this.

4:25

But in the meantime I was invited

4:27

to give a lot of lectures and I would do that,

4:30

but people would ask me questions.

4:33

Oh the hockey stick, and the ice sheets,

4:36

and sea level rise, and things that

4:37

I didn't know that much about.

4:40

And so I started, well, I need to learn

4:42

about all these other things.

4:43

So I started learning broadly about the whole thing

4:46

not just going beyond my own personal research expertise.

4:50

And then when Climategate struck.

4:53

Climate gate threatens to overshadow the work ahead.

4:56

And this was in 2009 with the

4:59

unauthorized release of the emails

5:02

from the University of East Anglia,

5:04

if you remember this, by IPCC authors.

5:07

And it showed a lot of really ugly things.

5:11

Avoiding Freedom of Information Act requests,

5:15

trying to keep data out of the hands of people

5:17

who are questioning their results.

5:20

And bullying, trying to get

5:22

journal editors fired from their job.

5:26

Trying to bypass the rules of the IPCC.

5:29

And on and on, all this skullduggery.

5:32

And I thought, and then it clicked in my head,

5:35

it says, well I can't take their word for it,

5:37

you know, this is what goes on

5:39

behind the scenes of the IPCC.

5:41

All this skullduggery and bullying and cherry picking

5:45

and trying to keep these papers

5:47

who challenge what you want the message to be

5:51

out of the literature and out of the IPCC.

5:54

I can't trust the IPCC.

5:56

So what did Climategate have to,

5:58

that's one university?

5:59

The IPCC is bigger.

6:01

Okay, but they were emailing all the other

6:03

IPCC authors all over the world.

6:06

You have to understand the origins of all this.

6:09

The origins go back to the 1980's

6:11

and the UN environmental program had this

6:15

big environmental agenda, anti-capitalism.

6:19

They hated the oil companies

6:21

and they seized on the climate change issue

6:23

as one to move their policies along.

6:26

The 1992 Climate Treaty of the U.N.

6:32

to prevent dangerous anthropogenic climate change.

6:35

196 countries, including the U.S., signed this.

6:39

This was in 1992, before there was any evidence

6:42

that humans were impacting the climate

6:45

and they went ahead with this treaty.

6:47

So you can see that the policy cart

6:50

was way out in front of the scientific horse

6:53

from the very beginning.

6:54

So the IPCC's mandate was to look for dangerous,

6:59

human-caused climate change.

7:01

The IPCC wasn't supposed to focus

7:04

on any benefits of warming.

7:06

They weren't supposed to focus on

7:09

natural climate variability.

7:10

They were just supposed to look for the signal of

7:13

dangerous, human-caused climate change.

7:15

That was their mandate.

7:18

And then the national funding agencies

7:21

directed all of the funding in the field

7:24

to look for dangerous, human-caused climate change,

7:26

so anybody who wants--

7:27

If you're a scientists and you say

7:29

"Well, we don't know that this is a problem."

7:31

You don't get funded.

7:33

Well you can, I was getting funded even after I stopped

7:36

to do things that weren't directly related to global warming,

7:40

to analyze NASA satellite data sets,

7:43

something like that.

7:44

I could get funding to do that.

7:46

But to do something big

7:50

that would relate to the broader issues?

7:53

No. All the big center and Institute fundings

7:57

was going to people who were establishing

8:00

these programs to support dangerous,

8:04

human-caused climate change.

8:05

Mostly the impacts,

8:07

not even looking at the causes of all this.

8:10

Why?

8:10

There's a couple of things in play.

8:12

Once this whole thing was in motion,

8:14

if you wanted to advance in your career,

8:18

like be at a prestigious university and get a big salary,

8:22

have big laboratory space,

8:23

get lots of grant funding,

8:25

be director of an institute,

8:27

get big awards by professional societies,

8:30

well there was clearly one path to go.

8:32

Why?

8:33

It was tied in with the funding, politics.

8:35

It wasn't until like the 2000's, maybe 2003-2004,

8:40

where a climate scientists in a university

8:43

would be called a denier.

8:44

And then after Climategate,

8:46

then it became really bad.

8:48

I've been called a denier.

8:49

Not so much that I deny mainstream climate science,

8:53

my perspective on the science is very defensible.

8:57

I'm called a denier because other people,

9:00

who they've called deniers,

9:01

including Republicans mostly,

9:04

seem to pay attention to me.

9:05

And I've been invited to present congressional testimony

9:09

by Republicans maybe 10 or 11 times.

9:12

So I'm regarded as enabling the deniers,

9:15

so I must be a denier myself.

9:18

I mean this is the peculiar logic.

9:20

I mean this is all part of cancel culture

9:23

and I think the climate scientists might have

9:25

invented cancel culture

9:26

because we were the first ones

9:28

who were really out there doing this,

9:30

even 20 years ago.

9:32

Whereas in other fields, it's a lot more recent.

9:35

If you say

9:36

"We're all going to die

9:37

and we got to spend a ton of money on this."

9:40

You get funding.

9:41

If you say "We don't know."

9:44

You don't get funding?

9:45

No, it's more subtle than that.

9:47

The funding agents send out

9:52

an announcement of opportunity for grants.

9:56

Okay, we're looking at how global warming

9:59

is changing water resources in the United States.

10:03

Okay, that's the topic.

10:04

So if you want to get funded, you say

10:06

"Well, I'm going to look at California, Nevada

10:09

and I'm going to do this, that, and the other."

10:12

And they'll probably get funded if it's technically credible.

10:15

But if you come in saying

10:17

"Well, I don't see that there's any reason

10:19

to think that fossil fuel emissions

10:22

are changing water resources

10:24

and I'm going to go at this in such and such a way."

10:28

You're probably not going to get funded.

10:30

So it's more subtle than that

10:31

because the announcements of opportunity

10:33

for funding are really tied to assuming

10:39

that there are dangerous impacts.

10:41

So the researchers aren't stupid,

10:43

they know what they need to say to get funding.

10:45

Exactly.

10:46

Many people now act as if climate is everything.

10:48

I know.

10:49

There was a Time Magazine cover

10:51

"Climate is Everything"

10:53

and there's this whole cottage industry

10:56

of climate scientists who are trying to correlate

11:00

migration,

11:02

the price of wine,

11:04

the quality of wine,

11:05

floods,

11:06

extreme weather events,

11:08

transportation congestion,

11:10

the size of frogs,

11:11

everything.

11:13

Airplane turbulence blamed on changing air currents.

11:17

Scientists expect turbulence like this to become

11:20

more frequent due to climate change.

11:22

Childhood obesity through inactivity caused by heat.

11:25

A new study showing how climate change

11:27

is making our children more obese.

11:29

Oh, you've seen some good ones.

11:30

You've seen some good ones.

11:31

The issue is, this is a way to get,

11:34

you can always get a paper published

11:36

that says that.

11:37

You can get money to do that.

11:39

You're going to get a good press release.

11:41

I mean this is playing into that whole professional game.

11:46

If this was just an academic, a silly academic game,

11:51

it wouldn't be so bad,

11:52

but the real issue is that blaming everything

11:56

on climate change detracts from the real,

11:58

underlying problems which get ignored.

12:02

People just throw up their hands

12:03

"Well, it's climate change."

12:04

What's the real underlying problem?

12:06

Well, poverty, lifestyle, poor governance,

12:11

poor land use, poor city planning,

12:13

on and on it goes.

12:14

There are all sorts of underlying problems

12:17

behind all these things that get ignored.

12:21

"Oh, it's climate change."

12:23

So we need to solve our real problems

12:25

rather than trying to solve fake problems.

12:28

People are dying!

12:30

The potential extinction of the human race.

12:33

The planet's on fire.

12:35

The planets on ****** fire!

12:38

That's Bill Nye.

12:39

Okay. In terms of lives lost,

12:42

over the past 100 years,

12:45

the number of lives lost from extreme weather

12:48

or droughts or whatever has dropped by 97%.

12:52

It's a paltry sum.

12:54

97%. More people are living

12:57

with slightly warmer temperatures.

12:59

Yeah.

13:01

In terms of extreme weather,

13:03

you have better infrastructure.

13:05

The biggest thing is advanced warning.

13:07

In 1970, there was this really bad hurricane

13:12

that struck Bangladesh.

13:14

Estimated 500,000 people were killed.

13:17

Simply the worst of the many cyclones

13:19

the two million people who live here

13:21

have ever experienced.

13:22

And this is what precipitated

13:24

East Pakistan splitting off from Pakistan.

13:27

I mean it was that event.

13:29

So that was a case of weather causing real changes.

13:32

Yeah.

13:32

And another tropical cyclone of similar

13:35

magnitude hit Bangladesh.

13:38

The Super Cyclone bringing torrential rain

13:40

and 150 mile-an-hour winds.

13:43

3,000 people died.

13:44

And the difference was?

13:45

Better warnings.

13:46

And people had advanced...

13:48

Which is much cheaper than trying to reengineer--

13:50

People were able to evacuate.

13:51

More than 600,000 people were evacuated.

13:54

Advanced warning is affordable.

13:57

It's really cheap.

13:58

A fraction of the price of what we're spending,

14:00

pretending to fight climate change.

14:02

Totally. Totally.

14:04

The whole issue of danger,

14:08

I mean this is the weakest part of their case.

14:10

Even the IPCC, the U.N. climate assessment reports,

14:16

the more credible one, the Physical Science Basis,

14:19

they don't use the word "danger,"

14:21

they use "reasons for concern"

14:23

and that's a better way to describe it.

14:25

Yeah, any kind of climate change,

14:27

whether it's natural-cause or human-cause,

14:30

is an ongoing predicament

14:32

that we need to understand and

14:33

we need to adapt to

14:35

and we need to try to manage the impacts.

14:37

How we came to the point where we think

14:41

that we're going to prevent

14:42

bad weather from happening

14:44

by eliminating fossil fuels

14:46

is just about the most

14:47

nonsensical,

14:48

illogical thing that I can imagine

14:51

and the whole world is caught up in this nonsense.

14:55

I mean we laugh at Tulip Mania,

14:57

back in the Netherlands many centuries ago,

15:00

but this is really on that same level.

15:03

Years ago with lousy technology,

15:05

Holland adjusted to rising sea levels.

15:09

Okay, this is really a pretty amazing story.

15:12

Holland has worked on this for centuries.

15:14

Parts of the country are as much as

15:16

seven feet below sea level.

15:18

It's not that hard to manage

15:20

a small amount of sea level rise.

15:21

Seven feet under water, that's not a little.

15:24

I know, it's a lot.

15:27

The technology is amazing and people

15:29

over in the U.S. and around the world

15:31

are consulting with Holland to figure out

15:33

how to manage their sea level rise issue.

15:35

This is something that's manageable.

15:37

The John Oliver segment.

15:39

[Shouting]

15:41

I apologize to everyone at home.

15:44

My thanks to Bill Nye and the

15:46

overwhelming scientific consensus.

15:48

The overwhelming scientific consensus.

15:51

That's what people still believe.

15:54

Okay, this whole climate consensus,

15:57

and this is chapter two in my book about the consensus,

16:02

when you talk about a scientific consensus,

16:05

like the Earth orbits the Sun,

16:09

you don't need to say there's a consensus

16:11

that the Earth orbits the Sun.

16:13

It's a well-known fact.

16:15

When you're talking about consensus,

16:18

it's usually on a topic where there is disagreement

16:23

and a government has asked a group

16:26

to come to some sort of an agreement

16:29

on what's what.

16:30

You see it in science,

16:31

you see it in like medical boards,

16:32

when they're deciding what drug gets reimbursed

16:36

for insurance for whatever disease.

16:39

So it's a manufactured consensus.

16:42

It's a consensus of scientists which is different

16:45

than a scientific consensus.

16:48

So it's been politicized.

16:52

Something as complex as the earth's climate

16:55

is crazily complicated, complex, ambiguous, uncertain,

17:02

and there's a true scientific consensus on very little of this.

17:10

That the temperatures have been increasing

17:12

for over a hundred years,

17:14

that burning of fossil fuels

17:18

emits CO2 into the atmosphere.

17:20

And CO2 has a radiation spectrum that

17:25

sort of keeps the Earth's surface warm,

17:29

all other things being equal.

17:31

Beyond that,

17:33

there's no real big consensus on anything.

17:36

The most consequential issues

17:37

we don't have consensus on.

17:39

How much of the recent warming

17:41

is caused by fossil fuels?

17:43

Still don't know.

17:44

Is fossil fuel and is warming dangerous?

17:47

This is the weakest part of the argument.

17:49

There's no agreement as to whether warming is dangerous.

17:52

That's a weak part of the argument?

17:54

I thought that, that was assumed.

17:56

Okay well, this is, you're conflating the extreme.

18:01

This is the Hurricane Katrina argument.

18:03

Hurricane Katrina wasn't caused by global warming.

18:07

It was caused by--

18:08

But your paper said there's more hurricane activity.

18:11

Okay, associated with warming temperatures.

18:13

Two issues, part of it was bad data,

18:16

part of it is natural climate variability,

18:19

and the most recent assessment

18:22

of the category four/five issue is that

18:25

it's maybe a 13% increase since 1980

18:31

and all of that increase is in the North Atlantic

18:34

and the North Indian Ocean.

18:35

You don't see it in the Pacific

18:37

which is where most of the hurricanes are.

18:39

And in the Atlantic,

18:41

the recent increase is known to be

18:43

associated with the large-scale,

18:46

multi-decadal ocean oscillation.

18:48

So it's natural climate variability.

18:50

And the worst U.S. land falling hurricanes

18:53

were actually in the 1930's.

18:56

So there's really no evidence

18:59

that hurricanes are getting worse.

19:00

So you're the unusual researcher

19:02

who looks at criticism of your paper

19:06

and actually concluded they had a point.

19:09

They had a point for sure

19:10

and I figured it out very early on about the data.

19:13

But for saying that, you're evil.

19:16

Oh yeah.

19:17

You know, people pay attention to my science.

19:21

The reason I really got knocked over

19:25

into the denier camp was

19:27

I was critical of the Climategate scientists,

19:30

who I thought behaved unethically,

19:32

and I was critical of the IPCC.

19:35

That was my cardinal sin

19:37

for getting me dumped into the denier camp.

19:40

Because I was critical of their behavior

19:44

and I think my criticisms of the IPCC

19:47

were echoed a few years later after Climategate,

19:51

when there was an inter-academy council

19:54

appointed by the U.N.

19:56

to investigate what the IPCC was doing.

19:58

And they agreed,

19:59

they weren't paying enough attention

20:01

to uncertainty and that a lot of their conclusions

20:04

were overconfident.

20:05

And this is exactly what I was saying.

20:08

But it's even, the IPCC is one thing,

20:10

but then you get the U.N. officials

20:13

that cherry pick and over hype this.

20:16

Climate change is quite simply

20:18

an existential threat for most life on the planet

20:23

including and especially the life of humankind.

20:27

And then this gets even further hyped in the media.

20:31

Global warming poses an existential

20:33

and a real threat.

20:34

Which then gets further amplified

20:37

by the advocacy groups.

20:39

We are now facing the existential crisis.

20:43

In the old days, you know, Greenpeace

20:46

and Natural Defense Council,

20:49

these were fairly sane advocacy groups.

20:51

Now, we have Extinction Rebellion

20:53

and Just Stop Oil and and all of these groups

20:56

that are just completely off the rails.

20:59

What is worth more?

21:01

Art or life?

21:03

Is it worth more than food?

21:06

Worth more than Justice?

21:08

Greenpeace and the NRDC.

21:10

The Sierra clubs.

21:11

Are reasonable?

21:13

Oh compared, compared relatively.

21:15

[Drums]

21:16

Compared to Extinction Rebellion.

21:18

But they're all basing their scary claims

21:22

"Give us more money we're going to stop it."

21:25

on U.N. predictions.

21:27

Okay, now this is where it gets interesting.

21:30

So exactly what is the U.N. predicting?

21:33

Well, over the last two years the IPCC,

21:38

the U.N. climate assessment team,

21:42

has published a series of reports

21:45

and they put out a range of projections

21:47

for the 21st century that are tied to

21:50

how much greenhouse gases

21:51

CO2 that we emit in the atmosphere.

21:54

And there's some alarming predictions

21:58

tied to the extreme emission scenario.

22:00

In these IPCC reports, they really emphasize

22:03

the simulations from the extreme emission scenario.

22:07

It's more than half of what they talk about

22:10

in these reports is tied to the extreme emission scenario.

22:14

Well, in 2021 the U.N. climate negotiators

22:19

dropped the extreme emissions scenario

22:22

and they're working off of the medium emissions scenario

22:25

as a baseline. And right now we're tracking

22:28

slightly below the medium emission scenario.

22:30

And so this gives a much more

22:32

moderate amount of warming than

22:34

the extreme mission scenario.

22:35

Even the Biden Administration just issued

22:38

a new report on the social cost of carbon.

22:40

The extreme emission scenario is nowhere to be found.

22:43

So you can see that the climate scientists

22:46

are so addicted to the extreme emission scenario

22:50

that what they're doing has become divorced

22:52

from the actual policy makers.

22:54

Why did the U.N. drop it?

22:56

Because the economists say

22:59

"look this is so not happening."

23:01

In order for the extreme emissions scenario to happen,

23:05

we'd have to increase our use of coal by six times,

23:10

which is, some have estimated

23:11

that's more than the non-recoverable reserves of coal.

23:15

This is just not the path that we're on.

23:17

It's just totally unrealistic.

23:20

In order to get to the extreme emissions scenario,

23:24

you have to make crazily unrealistic assumptions

23:28

and the U.N. climate negotiators

23:31

"okay, well, we need to get real here."

23:34

To their credit.

23:35

But well don't give them too much credit.

23:39

But they get credit for that one thing.

23:40

But the climate scientists remain addicted to that scenario.

23:44

But does this stop the U.N. climate negotiators

23:50

from saying "Wow, this is good news?"

23:53

No. They say:

23:53

"Well, the warming isn't as bad as we thought,

23:56

but the impacts are worse

23:58

so we need to double down on the alarm."

24:01

Rather than two degrees is the target,

24:03

we need to knock it back

24:04

to 1.5 degrees as a threshold of danger.

24:08

And the only way they get the impacts to be worse,

24:12

is if they're assuming that the extreme weather events

24:16

are all caused by CO2 emissions,

24:19

which of course they aren't.

24:20

In New York City you've had the smoke

24:23

from the Canadian wildfires.

24:24

Because the temperature is warmer in Canada.

24:27

Well actually, the trend in Canadian wildfires

24:31

is actually down.

24:32

So blaming this one on global warming is sort of hard.

24:36

It was actually a fluke of a dry period and some lightning,

24:41

out of season lightning which caused those fires

24:44

and it's not warming.

24:45

Back in the 1930's, the weather in the U.S. was

24:49

way, way worse than what we've seen

24:52

in the last couple of decades.

24:54

We had, far and away, the worst heat waves,

24:57

the worst droughts, the worst wildfires.

25:00

Actually, the worst wildfires were even earlier

25:03

in the 20th century in the late 19th century.

25:08

That's what John Steinbeck wrote about in

25:10

The Grapes of Wrath.

25:11

Don't know which way to turn.

25:12

Oh exactly! What caused the Dust Bowl

25:16

and all of that.

25:17

That was horrible and the worst land falling hurricanes,

25:21

U.S. land falling hurricanes were in the 1930's.

25:24

So what was going on then?

25:26

Well, it was natural climate variability.

25:28

There was a bunch of El Niños

25:30

and the Atlantic and the Pacific circulations

25:32

were in a certain phase and you got a decade

25:36

of really awful weather.

25:38

And it was over most of the United States,

25:41

not just the Dust Bowl region.

25:43

It shows up in New York.

25:45

It even shows up in New York.

25:46

The worst heat waves in New York were back then also.

25:49

But wait a second.

25:50

I see all these record high temperatures.

25:53

Oh, but there's also record low temperatures.

25:55

You're always going to be setting records somewhere,

25:57

high and low.

25:58

Do you remember back to Christmas

26:00

when you had the crazy cold weather

26:03

that came down in the...

26:05

Extreme variability caused by man-made climate change.

26:09

Well actually, if you really look at the climate dynamics,

26:15

if you're warming, and you're warming

26:17

the Arctic faster than the lower latitudes,

26:21

that's actually going to reduce the variability.

26:25

There's so much arm waving

26:27

whenever there's an extreme weather event

26:30

to try to tie it to global warming.

26:32

Sure, fossil fuel emissions did have an impact,

26:36

but there was a lot of other stuff going on

26:38

in the 20th century that were

26:40

influencing our climate and to think that

26:44

all of this is global warming,

26:47

human-caused global warming,

26:49

fossil fueled warming, is just a fairy tale.

26:52

And yet, that's a minority opinion

26:54

if you read the media.

26:55

Oh, I know.

26:56

The people who understand this

26:58

are a subfield of climate scientists called

27:00

climate dynamicists and this is a relatively small group

27:07

who have their roots in physics,

27:11

not in ecology, not in sociology,

27:14

not in economics, not in whatever,

27:17

but have their training in physics. And back in the old days,

27:22

and this is why a lot of people on the older side,

27:27

in their 50's, 60's, and 70's,

27:30

tend to be more skeptical of the mainstream narrative,

27:34

is because they got this very rigorous education

27:38

in geophysical fluid dynamics and climate dynamics.

27:41

So they understand the circulation patterns and

27:45

what's going on.

27:46

I mean, nowadays you get your degree in climate studies

27:51

and the only thing you know

27:53

about what is actually causing climate change

27:56

is how to recite IPCC talking points.

27:59

There's no understanding there.

28:01

So when you hear experts talking about all this,

28:05

there's three categories.

28:06

One, is people who are fluent

28:08

in reciting IPCC talking points.

28:11

Bill Nye would be an example.

28:13

You're adults now and this is an actual crisis.

28:16

He can talk about this stuff,

28:17

but he doesn't have really any real understanding.

28:20

He doesn't have a graduate degree

28:21

and his undergraduate degree is mechanical engineering,

28:25

but he's the expert.

28:26

Right, and then the second class,

28:28

is people who actually have some understanding,

28:31

who can read the full U.N. climate report,

28:34

the full one, and actually understand it.

28:37

And then there's the third class,

28:38

people who are genuine experts,

28:41

who can critically evaluate all that.

28:44

And, unfortunately, that third category

28:47

is shrinking proportionally

28:49

because the rest of the climate field is exploding.

28:52

You have a preponderance of this category one people,

28:56

like Bill Nye, who are judged to be experts,

28:59

who are talking about all this.

29:00

What's in it for them?

29:01

Fame, fortune.

29:03

It may be, their personal politics probably plays a role,

29:08

but you know fame and fortune.

29:10

[Laughs]

29:11

So the IPCC has several scenarios

29:15

and the extreme one they've dropped.

29:17

And as a result of this more moderate reference scenarios,

29:22

the amount of warming predicted for the 21st century,

29:27

relative to the extreme emissions scenario,

29:30

has been cut in half.

29:31

So we're looking at half the amount of warming

29:33

than what we expected even.

29:35

It could still do lots of damage.

29:37

It could, it could, maybe.

29:41

But I still think those projections are too high

29:46

because they haven't adequately

29:48

accounted for natural climate variability.

29:50

But that leads us to the point is "what's dangerous?"

29:54

Might be dangerous.

29:56

The slow creep of global warming

29:58

is associated with two main impacts.

30:00

One is the slow creep of sea level rise,

30:03

and the other one is melting of glaciers and ice sheets,

30:07

and those are slow processes.

30:09

And again, the modern sea level rise

30:11

and the modern Glacier melt-off started in the mid-1800's.

30:16

Remember we're coming out of the little ice age.

30:18

Right now, sea level rise is rising

30:21

at three millimeters per year.

30:23

To put that in perspective, three millimeters,

30:25

you stack two pennies on top of each other,

30:27

that's three millimeters.

30:29

That's how much sea level is rising each year.

30:32

So, I mean, if you--

30:33

Per a year, per year, it adds up.

30:36

It adds up, but it adds up to maybe eight inches,

30:40

eight or nine inches. Less than a foot.

30:42

If you think about what the tides are from day to day,

30:46

it's a lot more than a foot.

30:49

And a storm surge from a hurricane

30:51

can be more than 10 feet.

30:53

So we're talking about the slow creep

30:55

that we can easily normalize and adapt to.

30:58

But I hear that we could be approaching

31:00

the tipping point where everything gets worse.

31:03

There have been abrupt climate changes in the past

31:07

and around 10,000 years ago,

31:09

there was a hugely abrupt climate change

31:12

tied to a change in ocean circulation patterns

31:15

where 10 degrees over a century.

31:19

And this was just tied

31:20

to internal circulation patterns in the ocean.

31:24

Scientists are still trying to sort this out,

31:29

but we don't know.

31:30

But there can be these abrupt shifts in the climate.

31:34

They talk about collapse of the Atlantic Ocean circulation

31:38

and the Gulf Stream and all these crazy

31:42

possibilities.

31:43

Even the IPCC puts these

31:45

at low likelihood or low confidence.

31:49

The only one that they give high confidence to

31:52

is the disappearance of summertime Arctic sea ice

31:56

and by disappearance, they mean 80% of it.

32:00

They don't mean a hundred percent of it.

32:01

And in any event, the Arctic sea ice

32:04

would reform again in the winter.

32:06

So I don't know exactly what kind of a catastrophe

32:11

that would cause.

32:12

The most scary of these scenarios

32:14

is the potential collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet.

32:17

The West Antarctic ice sheet is very unstable.

32:21

If you took away the West Antarctic ice sheet,

32:24

that part of the continent would actually be

32:26

well underwater. So it's

32:28

what we call, a marine ice sheet.

32:30

The glacier sits above the water level,

32:33

but the continental part is well below sea level.

32:37

As a result, it's unstable

32:40

and the ice sheet moves a lot faster

32:43

than you would expect a glacier to move

32:45

and icebergs break off.

32:49

You hear in the news:

32:50

"Oh, one just broke off the size of Rhode Island."

32:53

And you hear this, and that happens

32:55

in the normal course of events.

32:57

It is an unstable ice sheet.

32:59

And if this were to collapse,

33:02

it would take some centuries for all this to melt,

33:05

but it would be a lot of sea level to rise.

33:08

So to me, that's the one scary thing that could happen

33:12

on the time scale of three or four centuries.

33:15

It would raise sea level rise six, seven feet globally

33:23

on the time scale of centuries.

33:26

But that's something that we can adapt to

33:29

on the time scale of several centuries.

33:32

But the likelihood of that happening,

33:34

I mean it's one of these big wild cards.

33:37

The odds are very low of anything like that happening

33:41

in the 21st century.

33:43

Why don't other scientists

33:44

who recognize the nonsense push back?

33:47

If they work at a university,

33:49

it's going to be very uncomfortable for them.

33:51

There's a young geologist

33:53

who recently left the University of Alabama,

33:57

actually before his tenure decision,

33:59

saying "I don't want to play this game.

34:03

I know what it takes.

34:05

Just to see it here, I don't want to play this game. I'm out."

34:08

There's a lot of young scientists, PHD's,

34:10

who would love to work at a university

34:12

say "Well, which university should I go to?"

34:15

Or try to go to where they would accept people

34:19

who do this kind of research

34:20

and I give them a list of a few places that I know of.

34:25

I said but the jobs are very competitive

34:27

and you're going to have a tough time getting funding.

34:31

And then people have retired prematurely, like myself.

34:36

And then a few have stuck it out

34:40

and they've been able to manage

34:43

if they have friends in high places.

34:45

The ones who speak up are people who are retired,

34:49

who are in the private sector.

34:50

Because universities have become idiots

34:52

and they punish people who tell the truth?

34:54

It's pretty ugly.

34:56

I felt the hostility when I was at Georgia Tech,

35:00

and Georgia Tech is by no means

35:02

the worst place to be in this regard,

35:04

and I just said "No, I'm not going to do this."

35:06

I resigned.

35:08

I'm still not getting why push dubious extremism?

35:12

Personal politics, they're environmentalists, they want

35:16

fossil fuels to go away.

35:20

Anti-capitalists, anti-democratic, the whole thing.

35:25

The whole university disease these days.

35:28

Well, the whole university disease.

35:29

Universities are very liberal places for the most part

35:32

and there's a few bastions of sanity,

35:38

University of Chicago, my alma mater,

35:41

leads the pack in terms of sanity on all these kinds of issues.

35:47

So it's not every university,

35:49

but if you're a state university in a blue state,

35:54

of course you're going to be doing that.

35:56

To get paid?

35:57

No, to get university funding.

36:00

and it's the board of trustees,

36:05

there's all these politics in play in universities

36:09

that determine standing.

36:11

If they want big donations for some big climate institute,

36:16

a new building, a new whatever,

36:19

want to toe this party line.

36:22

If all their donors are of that persuasion.

36:24

CNN –

36:25

Large parts of the world could become uninhabitable.

36:28

They’re quoting climate scientists.

36:30

Climate scientists say all sorts of crazy things.

36:34

First off, the most prestigious

36:37

journal publications like Science and Nature,

36:40

they only send a small fraction of

36:42

papers out for review.

36:44

They reject a majority of them,

36:46

before they even go out for peer review.

36:49

So if you're coming in with a paper

36:52

that's challenging any part of the consensus,

36:54

that's not going to even be sent out for review.

36:56

The editor of the journal Science,

36:58

she wrote this political rant

37:00

about we need to stop emissions now,

37:02

that was published in Science.

37:04

And she was the chief editor

37:05

of the Journal of Science.

37:07

So what kind of message does that give to the editors?

37:10

Promote the alarming papers

37:12

and don't even send the other ones out for review.

37:15

So you can see how this gatekeeping works.

37:19

You can always get your paper published somewhere,

37:21

but it's not going to be in a

37:23

prestige journal,

37:24

one that helps you with your career

37:27

or one that gets publicity or anything like that.

37:30

The website DeSmog writes,

37:33

"Judith Curry says her consulting company

37:36

includes petroleum companies."

37:39

You're doing this for the money.

37:40

Okay. Back when I was faculty member

37:44

at Georgia Tech,

37:45

I was extremely well paid.

37:47

My salary was a matter of public record,

37:51

well into six figures.

37:52

My salary, since I've gone private sector,

37:55

rarely even approaches

37:57

half of what I was receiving from Georgia Tech.

37:59

So if I was doing this for the money,

38:01

I would have stayed at Georgia Tech.

38:03

I can see why other academics

38:05

don't want to speak out.

38:06

Joe Romm of Climate Progress.

38:09

“Judith Curry abandons science.”

38:11

I think he called me the most debunked

38:14

climate scientists on the planet.

38:16

But the really funny thing is

38:18

there's a back story with Joe Romm.

38:20

Joe Romm just loved the hurricane, my stuff

38:24

following Hurricane Katrina.

38:26

Joe Romm and I even did a

38:28

little mini tour in Florida,

38:30

going around, talking to people.

38:32

I would talk about the problem.

38:33

He would talk about the solution.

38:35

Joe Romm, if you look back before Climategate,

38:38

he was publicizing me all over the place,

38:42

even during Climategate,

38:44

when he thought, you know, what's she doing here?

38:46

What's she doing here?

38:47

He even published one of my essays

38:51

on Climategate on his Climate Progress blog.

38:55

Within about three or four months,

39:00

the important people sort of told him,

39:03

okay, we need to abandon Judith Curry

39:05

and just call her a denier.

39:07

But up until that point,

39:10

Joe Romm was actually a promoter of mine.

39:13

I even wrote a blurb for his book Hell and High Water.

39:18

I reviewed it for him and everything.

39:20

So we were, you know, quasi-friends.

39:22

And then after that,

39:24

he turned and I then became the most

39:27

debunked climate scientist on the planet.

39:29

So you can see what drives these people.

39:31

It's not science.

39:33

Are you the most debunked climate scientist?

39:36

I'm probably the most irritating.

39:40

The reason they hate me so much

39:43

is because I criticize them and I criticize...

39:46

Michael Mann calls you a serial climate disinformer.

39:49

He called me a denier and a misinformer.

39:53

This is how much I had gotten under his skin.

39:56

I'm the number one enemy in certain circles,

39:59

certainly Michael Mann, he takes it personally.

40:03

You told me you had to develop

40:05

the hide of an armadillo.

40:07

Uh huh.

40:08

Things were just uncomfortable

40:10

for me at Georgia Tech.

40:12

And so, I’d get invites from

40:16

headhunters all the time to apply for this,

40:19

that or the other position.

40:21

And I started applying for some of these positions.

40:24

I wanted to be out west.

40:25

I was looking at things out west

40:27

and some pretty big positions,

40:29

and I got invitations to interview,

40:31

and I did interview

40:34

and the headhunters said,

40:35

"Wow, you're a great candidate."

40:37

You have brilliant ideas on

40:40

how to move this university forward

40:43

and you interviewed very well.

40:44

But at the end of the day,

40:47

nobody will hire you,

40:48

because if you Google Judith Curry,

40:50

everything that shows up with

40:53

“Judith Curry denier.

40:54

Judith Curry, serial climate disinformer,”

40:57

All DeSmog, like.

41:00

Ten years ago it was awful.

41:02

It's not so bad anymore.

41:04

But ten years ago, if you Googled me,

41:06

the first hundred things that you would show up

41:08

would be Judith Curry denier stuff.

41:10

I was dead in academia.

41:12

At that point I started making my plans

41:15

to transition 100% to the

41:18

private sector and work on my company full time.

41:21

And best thing I ever did in my life.

41:23

Why had things become uncomfortable at your school?

41:26

Well, some of my faculty members

41:28

were complaining because I criticized the IPCC.

41:32

I criticized the hockey stick.

41:34

They were complaining. There was a bad situation

41:37

where one of my faculty members had a relative

41:40

who was in the higher administration,

41:42

Georgia Tech, who was feeding all this stuff to this person.

41:46

The provost was

41:49

very into the narrative of climate alarmism

41:52

and saw this as a way to get more money to Georgia Tech.

41:55

And on and on it went.

41:57

I was just unpopular

41:59

with the higher administration for my stand.

42:06

When I stepped down as chair,

42:10

I could see the writing on the wall

42:11

that I would be marginalized at the university,

42:14

even just as a regular faculty member,

42:19

no teaching assignments, small office,

42:22

never going to get a salary increase.

42:24

I could just see the writing on the wall.

42:25

So I left. I could have stayed there

42:27

and sucked up my big salary.

42:29

I would have made a whole lot more money doing that

42:31

than from my paltry,

42:34

paltry sums that my clients

42:39

in the petroleum sector pay me.

42:41

I could have made a lot more money at Georgia Tech,

42:43

but that's not who I am.

42:44

My personal and professional integrity

42:46

would not allow me to play that game.

42:49

Good for you.

42:49

I'm a lot happier.

42:51

I'm on top of the world right now.

42:53

I'm so glad to be out of all that.

42:54

Thank you. Judith Curry.

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