我們需要聊一下特斯拉

Hello everyone, I'm Terry Recently, many people have been asking me to talk about Tesla in the comments below my video Even if it's not about Tesla's video, many people have asked me to talk about what happened to Tesla's stock. In fact, I really don't know what to say I think I've said what I should say in the previous video Why will stocks fall? What is the expectation of Wall Street?

How did they make Tesla a good company? Various factors that affect the economy. And then a lot of things happen every day. A lot of noise. A lot of FUD. Because Tesla itself is a company with a very high level of attention. But the basic face of the company has not changed much. As a long-term investor, if you really want to make money, you have to be able to ignore a lot of boring fake news. And don't get too excited because of some things. As long as the company continues to do what they say they should do,

I think it's normal for stocks to go up and down. If it falls, it's a good buy-in opportunity. I don't really understand why many people started complaining when the company's stock started to fall. Then you have to complain about it because it's too high. It's too expensive. And what's strange is that when you buy things, everyone likes to buy cheap goods. What black dance? A bunch of people are lining up at the store door. Stay up late in line. I'm afraid I can't buy anything. Missed a good chance to hit. But when the stock is on the market, I've been complaining about it. This may be human nature. I don't know.

Anyways, since there are netizens who want me to share my opinion, I will share my opinion with you guys today. First of all, I don't know if you remember, I posted a video in July 2022. It's about Tesla's energy reserves and car business. In 2022, their energy reserves were deployed at more than 6 GWh. In 2023, it was doubled. Let's look at the income of the energy reserves.

In 2022, it was $3.9 billion. In 2023, it was $6 billion. In 2024, it is expected to be $8.4 billion. I personally think this figure is a bit underestimated. It should be higher than this. In 2024, I think Tesla's energy storage business should reach another new peak. Let's take a look at the interest rate. From 7% in 2022 to 19% last year. What is the interest rate this year?

I don't know, I think it will be higher Because as the price and raw material costs are decreasing The cost of power generation is also decreasing The labor rate should continue to increase In my opinion, the energy sector is actually not too bad I know Tesla is a car sales company Most people only know that Tesla is a car sales company Few people know that they have Megapack, Powerwall, solar panels, and superchargers Tesla's supercharger is currently open to Ford and Rivian in the United States Other companies are also opening one after another

This picture shows all the car manufacturers that are ready to start using Tesla's NACS charging specifications. Everyone knows that Tesla's biggest competitor is the gasoline car. To be honest, Tesla's electric cars are not competing with any other competitors in the United States. There are currently about 140,000 gas stations in the United States. There are more than 50,000 charging stations in the United States. There are currently more than 2,000 super charging stations in the United States.

So I think the deployment of super-fast trains should be one of Tesla's most important goals. Although this thing can't make much money in a short time, its margin is not high. But it is the most important infrastructure for accelerating electric vehicles. Just like I just said, Tesla's biggest competitor is fuel cars.

These car manufacturers have decided to adopt the NACS charging specifications of Tesla. So it means that Tesla has a very large market share and has already confirmed that it has not yet started to execute. Tesla's supercharger team has recently shared with you their pre-made charging units on X. In just a short time of four days, you can charge the charger from assembled to open for users to use. It means that they have prepared a large number of deployment charging devices at any time. You may ask why there are only more than 2,000 superchargers in the United States at the moment.

The main reason is because you need to build these supercharging stations You need to permit local governments Some local governments have to run for several months But I think when the electric car starts to become more and more popular The cost of charging outside will only get cheaper and cheaper Just like I think the electricity bill will be cheaper and cheaper in the future

It's so cheap that most parking lots can charge. Then you just have to get off the car and go buy a dish. The electricity will start to charge. Then you can't spend much money in a month. And the biggest advantage of electric cars is in the United States. You usually have your own house. Then you have to charge. It's very convenient. You come back from work every day and plug in the electricity. Then I'll buy it the next morning.

Most of the time you don't need to use the supercharger Generally speaking, only when you need to drive a long-distance car will you use the supercharger Let's talk about cars Why do stocks fall? I talked about it in the previous video Because Wall Street expects that they expect this year's car sales to not grow at all There will even be a negative growth First of all, cars are circular consumer products

What is a circular consumer? Consumers will consume according to their personal economic situation and the circular economy. Usually when the economy is poor, people don't go to buy a car. Plus Tesla's second largest market is in China. China is currently experiencing an economic recession. Consumers naturally

People don't want to buy things, which is completely opposite to the US. The US is now in inflation and people love to spend money. So the US interest rate has been down. If the interest rate is so high, it will be very difficult to buy a car. In addition, there are too many cheap electric cars in China. It's very tight. Naturally, the sales performance of this business is not good. They are in the first quarter of the financial report. The number of cars paid is very low. It's quite ugly, to be honest. But this is a big environmental problem. It's not just Tesla's cars that are not selling well.

The number of electric cars in Biadi is also declining And the decline is even more than Tesla I know Biadi is not only selling electric cars It also sells oil-fuel mixture cars You can see this picture Oil-fuel mixture cars plus electric cars The overall decline is still more than Tesla And Tesla in their first quarter Car delivery data I talked about it The number of deliveries is declining Part of the reason is Because of the new Model 3 production line upgrade

and the conflict of the Red Sea caused by the fire in a German supermarket. Anyway, this year Q1 is a disaster. If we look at the business of selling cars, I don't think it's TESA's fault. The whole environment is like this. Of course, as investors, I think we need to look at everything rationally. Indeed, the environment now is not very good for selling electric vehicles.

And selling electric vehicles is the only major earning business for Tesla at the moment. It should be said that the only business that is really making money is selling electric vehicles. So in a short time, you won't see any good results in electric vehicle business. And the financial report will be out next week. I think everyone should have a number in mind. What will happen after the financial report? I think everyone has a lot of experience. So if you are a little conservative, and you don't want to give too many profit and loss to Tesla's other business,

You can also wait until the entire red-light economy is better. After the U.S. dollar starts to fall, I will consider going to the market. But I think I still have to openly talk about my own way of operation. I am more brainless. I am DCA. Then I will buy when I see a low point. Because I think it's too tired to go to the time market. What else does Tesla have besides energy and electric vehicles? What else? There is also AI. But what is the use of AI without making money? Tesla's current value is the largest position number, which is AI.

This is also why every analyst has a very big difference in valuation. Like Kathy Woo, a psychic, gives a valuation of $2000. Then there are some psychics who work in the field every day and give a valuation of $60. Tesla's energy and car businesses are relatively better at calculating its valuation. You can just say on the Internet how to use DCF to calculate Tesla's valuation. There will be a bunch of models for you to use. Anyone can calculate this, but the most difficult place to calculate the valuation is to give an assumption on the position tree.

The current Tesla AI has not yet brought real profit. So how do you calculate the potential? And everyone has a different view on potential. Whether it's FSD or Optimus, we won't talk about Optimus first. That thing is too far away. Even now, FSD has not really started to make money. How do you expect Wall Street analysts to put the FSD valuation into it? Without numbers, they won't be able to estimate.

I know you might say FSD V12.3 is very powerful, very awesome, very powerful. It is indeed very powerful. But those who have used it know that this version is far from the final version of our psychological dreams. Robotaxi L5 fully automatic driving. There is still a gap. Iran recently said on X that August 8th, this year's August 8th, Robotaxi will be released. I personally think that this expectation should not be too high.

I know a lot of people are super excited to see the X-Wing release. But this is just a product release. It doesn't mean that the product can be used on the online market immediately on the day it is released. According to TESA's past product release experience, after a few hundred days after the product is released, the product will not be handed over to the user.

Let's start with the most famous Cybertruck release. After the release, it took more than 1500 days, which is about 4 years, to really hand over the product to the customer. Of course, this may not be the same. Robotaxi may be an app. It is also possible that on August 8th, they will release the 25K small car they said in the report before the report. Maybe they learned the lesson before this time and want to give the investor a surprise. But I myself think it's too optimistic and hold too much hope. In fact, I think the reason why Iran threw out this news so early is that it hopes to attract talent.

留住人才 Because all the big companies are stealing AI talents OpenAI, Meta, Google Especially OpenAI has been making some extra money to dig people out from Tesla How do you prevent your employees from being dug out? You can draw a lot of big cakes But your stock is stacked like a bird Hard to attract people

Although I think it's time to join the company now Because the stock price is low, the number of shares you can get will be higher But most people don't think so Then let's pause for a moment Thank you for today's video is sponsored by Gorin Today I want to introduce you to Gorin's stock exploration function This function was created by the AI technology financial company Trading Valley It mainly combines AI and big data Through five aspects Help investors quickly analyze the current situation of listed companies in the basic and technical aspects

Let's take a look at Tesla. Click on it and we can see five aspects, namely value, trend, break, bargaining and encouragement. Because Tesla does not have encouragement, encouragement is one point. Let's take a look at the value side. The value side is the basic side of this company. Here is a summary. Tesla has a stable cash flow. Then you can see the value history score of Tesla below. You can use this history score to review and simulate. For example, the time of the scene is more than 4 minutes.

and the time of the launch is less than 2 minutes, then according to this operation, the total turnover rate from August 2018 to now is more than 800%. For the busy office workers, a simple and easy interface can help you quickly understand the basic face of this company. In addition, the trend indicator can help you understand the short-term and long-term price trend. You can see that we are now in a strong airhead. Below you can see the historical trend score of Tesla. If you want to participate in the investment of the Tesla trend more accurately,

can be noticed when the Tesla trend score improves Usually the score increases to 4 points means that the stock market may have a good trend in the future What is different from other investment analysis platforms on the market is that most of them provide a large number of and complex listed company information for investors to study themselves and the national stock market is to help investors to simplify the complicated stock information to help you master the status of listed companies faster

Growering also provides a special discount for the channel viewers. At the end of April, you can get a discount code to play 88 fold. I will put the link and discount code in the information column at the bottom of the video. Let's talk about FSD. Like I just said, I think FSD V12.3 is really powerful. I am also very sure that it is completely different from V11. This difference is like Siri and ChatGPT. I really don't understand why Siri can do so bad.

But as you all know, you can watch a lot of videos on the internet, V12 and L5 still have some distance. I think investors need to pay attention to the speed of V12's progress, not its current status. The speed of progress is the most important. Only at this point can you verify whether this technology of pure visual end-to-end neural network can surpass other technologies to reach L5 first. Because its speed of progress and ability to improve do not need to rely on car hardware upgrade. The speed of progress is completely dependent on data and algorithm, just these two.

Tesla's data should be the most in the industry I can't think of any other car manufacturers that have more data And Elon has also talked about it on X before Calculation is no longer a limitation factor So in theory, everything you need is in place Now all you need is execution and verification Then more execution and more verification If today's V12 is not as fast as before And the regression is increasing

I think investors need to pay special attention to it. It's not that Tesla is out of luck, it's just that it may be harder to hold out for a while. I think FSD is the only one of Tesla's current key technology that can increase the interest rate in a short time and the entire company's valuation is re-examined. Tesla's AITM, in fact, they now have data to prove that the safety of FSD

But let's assume that there are 100 traffic accidents in the US every day. If the US now has all the FSD, there will be only one traffic accident every day. But everyone may still not be able to accept the possibility of this accident happening. I think this is the most difficult place for Robotax to achieve. You need a lot of data to prove that FSD is several times safer than human driving. But we don't have that much data yet. It doesn't mean FSD is not good. I think FSD is already very, very powerful.

I drove an Intel chip FSD before The oldest Model 3 FSD is basically perfect on high speed roads And I have to drive to Vancouver from that time I don't want to drive it at all when I think there is no FSD It's a technology that will attract people But if you want to pursue perfection, it's very difficult Because it's rare that technology is perfect

Look at the quality of Boeing's aircraft. Everyone still flies their aircraft. Aircraft companies still fly their aircraft. So it depends on what you think. In addition, many netizens have commented under my FSD video before saying that I am a "sailor" and that I have never seen Huawei's NCA that is ahead of Tesla and Waymo. Of course I have seen Huawei's video.

I even emailed the blogger to ask if he could borrow the video from me to share with you. It's just that he didn't give me a call. If you are interested, you can go and see it. I will link it to the information column at the bottom of the video. Then I have to say that Huawei's autonomous driving technology is really good. It's really good. I think so. But my point of view is still the same. There is no change. The important thing is the speed of progress. And I think there is a very important point that everyone may ignore. Many people say that China's transportation is several times harder than the United States. I do not deny this. It is really very difficult to look at it from the perspective of following the traffic rules.

I also lived in Chengdu for a while I remember back then, no one would put traffic rules into consideration I don't know if it's still the case now, but I remember back then I thought the traffic rules in China were to not hit people on the road But the road is very soft when driving in China I've seen a car that can stop in the middle of the road and all the cars will naturally go around it But in the US, it's unlikely that this will happen As long as you drive a little bit strangely in the US, you will be pulled over

I think Americans are more of a traffic rule but more reckless So in such two completely different environments I don't think there's anything to compare You can't compare anything at all It's only meaningful when FSD V12 starts to test data in China And in theory, I mean theory The driving style of the two-way drive in China is more complicated

If you have any research on Huawei's autonomous driving, you can also share it in the information column below the video.

Alright, that's all my personal opinion, not investment advice. If you think the content is helpful to you, remember to give me a thumbs up. If you don't have many requests, just give me a thumbs up. If your opinion is different, you are welcome to share it with everyone in the comments below. Finally, as the saying goes, as a shareholder of Tesla, long-term investors are not easy. You have to learn how to distinguish right from wrong and true and then you can withstand the market's ups and downs. If you can't do these, I sincerely recommend that you don't invest. Why are you so tired? See you next time.