目前市場都在最高點，要怎麼投資？feat. 總經分析師 @kukantieh

Hello everyone, I'm Terry. This year, basically all the indexes like S&P 500, Nasdaq, Taigu index, even Japanese stock index Nikkei have created historical high. And then what Bitcoin, Taiwan's housing prices are also historical high. Anyway, everything is very expensive. The inflation is also very serious. The price is also very high. What is really falling now is the cash in hand. For many office workers in general, there is no growth in salary. Even if there is growth, it is very slow.

So for many people, especially for new investors who just started investing, it's a very difficult time. Should you invest or hold cash in your pocket? Should you buy a house or put money in stocks? Or should you keep it in your bankbook? What will the entire world's economy look like in the next 1-5 years? These investment decisions will directly affect your next life plan.

I invited a financial YouTuber, Sean, to talk about the general economy of Hong Kong. Sean used to do analysis and transactions in Hong Kong and Singapore. He now has a YouTube channel, mainly to share information about the general economy of Hong Kong. If I want to invest in stocks, for example, if I want to invest in Thailand, I need to know the general economy of the United States.

I think it's necessary because the US monetary policy represents the strength and weakness of the US interest rate and dollar. In many cases, for the world, money is divided into two stages. One is flowing into the US and the other is flowing out of the US. Usually, when the stock market is in the emerging market, usually when the stock market performs better, there is a scenario where the money flows out of the US. For example, in 2021, the stock market will lower interest rates to zero and then use unlimited QE. At that time, the dollar was very weak.

然后呢钱就不断的流出美国 那新兴市场呢不管是台湾韩国或是哪里 就是受惠的嘛 因为这些钱有时候是被动的钱 那他们就单纯是因为联准或者货币政策 他们知道第一经济会好 因为当利率是零的时候 然后美国又无限量宽松的时候 其中一个很重要的目的是为了促进经济嘛 所以美国的终端需求会好

中端需求好,那這些以出口為主要經濟的國家,那自然就會好。 那而且呢,美元會貶,所以呢,錢就會很聰明, 他們在這時候就會離開美國跑去投資這一些以外銷出口為主要經濟的市場。 像21年台灣就非常好啊,對不對? 因為疫情的關係,大家都必須在家裡工作。 很多人以前家裡面有工作的設備啊,就必須要買螢幕啊,買電腦啊。

Taiwan is the one that exports these products. So your companies suddenly made a lot of money in those years. Plus, the capital fell because of the Fed leaving the US to invest in the new market. So Taiwan's 2021, no matter if it's stock market or economy, is actually very good. So that's obviously the biggest confidence you have in investing in Taiwan. Now, whether it's real estate, S&P 500, Nasdaq, or even the index of Nikkei, it's all historical.

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In terms of the year 2024, first, because now we hear that the company will want to go down. Plus, the economy is like manufacturing. We just talked about Taiwan's 3C companies, the electronics industry. It used to be very good in 2021, but they were fine in the past two years. Because everyone bought everything in 2021. It means that everyone bought computers and screens that year. It means that all the shares in the next two years will be bought in one year. So, in fact, semiconductor industry has been in the past two years. In fact, there is a problem of storage.

但是這一切看起來也走進尾聲了。 就像台積電,它每一年都希望自己的業績能成長20%, 但它其實在2022年跟2023年都沒有做到, 因為2021年真的太好了。

So when you have a very good year, everyone bought their things in a year, they will need three years in the future. Naturally, it will take a little time to digest these storage and let the demand return to normal. But this year, 2024, you see, the process of these semiconductor needs to be stored is gradually over. Everyone will come back to buy these things. Then the company will have to move his hand again.

We have AI, the new growth energy. So in fact, if I look at it from a big perspective, whether it's from currency policy or semiconductor cycle, or even this new technology, which is AI, a new industry, I think 2024 should be a good year. But what is the biggest problem we see this year? Whether it's S&P or Nikkei or Taiwan, it's the same. Suddenly, it has grown a lot in the first two or three months, and there is no return.

So, currently, it seems that the biggest concern is the growth. If you are afraid of the growth, but you believe it is a good year, then the simplest thing is not to all-in once. You let time help you sizing. The simplest way is that if you haven't invested yet, then you divide your money into five parts.

you can invest in one first. Then I'm sure that this is not the highest point. If it falls back later, I still have 4/5 of the money to invest. So when I'm afraid of the highest point, I think about two things. First, do I look good for the future of this year? I personally look good. But we can't judge the high point. Then let time help us make this decision. This year, according to the current situation, we expect there will be a chance to fall. Will you expect the stock market to go up or down?

Mm-hmm.

Because after the end of the rising tide, it means that the Federal Reserve Bank is no longer giving more pressure to the capital market. At least we have seen the greatest pressure. What does it mean before the starting of the falling tide? It means that at least we have confirmed that the economy is not in trouble. Because if the economy is in trouble, they will fall. So we have passed the greatest pressure. Then the economy has not yet appeared. Before the decline, in fact, according to the angle of circulation, this period is the sweetest period.

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S&P is not that the last 16 weeks rose 12 or 13 weeks or so, but it is a very fast and exaggerated speed, no return, which makes everyone more nervous and timid, but in fact, the conclusion of the rise is actually from the general view. There is no problem, then the problem will usually happen after the fall. Just answer your question just now, that is, in fact, the fall is not necessarily a bad thing, because the fall actually releases the pressure on the economic growth of the Fed. According to the result, your mortgage will fall, your mortgage will fall, in fact,

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已經太晚了 因為其實失業率是一個很落後的指標 等到企業開始大幅裁員的時候 其實可能背後已經發生了一些 我們沒有想到的骨牌效應了 其實08年我們現在回頭看 絕對也是降息降太晚嘛 然後其實01年的打抗Bubble 後來也是降息降太晚嘛 就是這個當下我們不知道 也有很多時候其實降息降得剛好的 真的降息以後就欣欣向榮了

像2019年就是這樣子 我不知道你記不記得那個時候是中美貿易戰的時候 2018年中美貿易戰打得非常激烈 其實亞洲的經濟體都非常的慘 美國其實最後一個倒了 美國一直到2018年年底 2019年上半年才開始面露敗相 那一次降息就降得恰到好處 所以它降息完以後股市就持續創下新高 就是那個時機點很重要

Do you have any stocks that you are interested in? We just talked about the stock market is a good year before the end of the recession. So we naturally want to actively look for investment landmarks. My original idea at the beginning of this year is that we are going to find those victims of the recession. Like the 2000 ruble, like the American Regional Bank, in fact, these things have really

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Mm-hmm.

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China and Russia are saving up real gold.

嗯 那在這個情況下很明顯的加密貨幣就是另外一種選擇

Um.

嗯。 我覺得尤其是現在年輕的一代, 不管是在讀書, 或是剛畢業, 你問他們說, 你會想買黃金還是買比特幣? 他們會更偏向就是說, 買比特幣或是家運貨幣。 沒錯。 我覺得主要還是, 黃金它開採量是無上限, 就它沒有像比特幣就是, 兩千一百萬個。 演算法決定的,嗯。

I actually watch a lot of news or when I understand the situation, I also pay attention to the capital, especially in the United States. The stock market basically looks at the face of the Fed. They think about how the stock market will respond. Do you think that based on your experience, there is a big difference between knowing the capital and not knowing the capital? Yes, I think when you do investment, you have a big perspective, you will be more likely to have beliefs.

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那如果真的遇到了 我們是不是應該做一些想辦法減倉啊 或是做一些處理 補備一些子彈 因為等到壞事真的發生了以後 那反而是我們要投入的時候 我覺得了解循環會讓自己的操作虛胸化極吧 我覺得總之就是可以給你一個趨勢的概念 沒錯就是前今年應該在這種情況下 從哪裡流到哪裡 其實最簡單就是這樣這樣 然後以及國家也是一樣的啊

今年應該從哪一個國家流到哪一個國家 像日本今年就非常紅啊 這也是一個非常總經的一個交易 你知道日本就是沒有通膨了30年嘛 難得有了通膨 那他們今年很有機會變成一個正常的經濟體 所以日本今年的股市上漲 對於我們研究總經理來說也不意外 如果你了解一個國家的總經 你也可以不但是屈胸化 其實你也可以尋找一些投資機會啦 我覺得日本就是一個總經最好的例子

今年日本

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So this year, I collaborated with the Intelligent Satellite System to open an online general economy course. The main thing is to share my past food experiences in a systematic way. So I will explain some background of the general economy in this course, and some basic knowledge and explanation of the name. How can you actually use it in your investment strategy? For example, the relationship between the interest rate of the central bank and the stock market, the interest rate of the bond and the stock market, or how foreign exchange is affected by the interest rate of two countries.

and even raw materials, gold, oil, what role do they play in the economic cycle? Finally, I will share with you some historical cycle experiences, because I think you know, the economy and the economy itself are circular. In fact, we need to understand the current situation. One of the best solutions is that we look back at the same time and space background in history. First, what did the company do at that time?

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Okay. It's very helpful to understand the capital. At least for me, when I'm reading a lot of articles, or to understand why this phenomenon occurs. That's why it's very helpful. Yes, and then like this course on the knowledge satellite, is it just starting to open? Or is there any special price? Yes, this course has already started to open. From now until May 19, it will be offered at a discount price of 4-5 times lower than the price of the price. If you are a fan of Terry, you can enter Terry350.

you can get an additional discount of 350 yuan. Anyway, I put the discount information in the video description. If you are interested, you can go and have a look. If you want to learn about the general fund, Sean is very professional. And his course, I think it's not bad. Thank you again, Sean, for coming to talk about the trend and changes in the investment market.

I hope you have learned something, especially in the general finance section. By learning about the general economy to help you make investment configurations. In fact, learning about the general economy is like learning a trend. When you understand this trend, when you are doing investment configuration, you can be more decisive and rational. Because the stock often goes up and down, but if you master the direction, it is your chance to increase when it falls. Finally, if you are interested, I will put the general finance course information and discount content in the information section. See you next time.