Outlook | Unlocking Value of Sillica 30/03/2026

Okay, guys. Let me introduce myself, my name is

Farel.

I am one of the analysts at Outlier

Inside. Okay, today I will discuss

about the silica industry with the title

Unlocking Value of Silica.

Okay, first of all,

before we discuss silica

further, we have to know for ourselves

that we have to know that

silica is a mining commodity,

friends,

yes. So

we have to know that there are

several types of mining, namely

open pit, underground mining, and

dragging. Well, these three have different

characteristics, friends.

Firstly, this open pit has a

large production volume which is positive.

The second is simple technology.

Third, scalable production and

fast and easy access. So because

the structure of the open pit mining

is open, it is easier for the ee to

lift the mining materials

from the bottom to the top

because it can be accessed by the ee through

normal logistics. So there is no need for

any kind of

ordinary technology because you can

access it easily using trucks and

other things.

[clears throat] The production is also large

because the guys are efficient from

top to bottom, they can carry

mining products and

mining goods. Well, but there are

minuses and there are negatives. The negative

is that because it has to rotate from top to

bottom, the

fuel consumption is high, which is wasteful,

right? And the second

is that it requires a large area of ​​land, so it requires a

large permit, which is bureaucratic, which is

difficult, right? If, for example, it is assisted,

if it is mined, the

bureaucracy is difficult, right? So getting a

big permit is also quite difficult.

[snort]

Then the third is sensitivity to the

weather, especially rainy weather and

hot weather. Because what is below

, underground, is further

from the surface, the closer it is to the

earth's core, so it is also hotter

when it is hot. And also the

dry dust also makes the temperature

feel hotter for workers.

[clears throat]

But on the other hand, on the other hand, when it

rains, it's more dangerous

because if there's

a lot of soil in this open pit, it's

slippery, friends. If it rains, the

trucks also have to have

more fuel,

use more fuel

because it is slippery, a lot of

energy is wasted when the truck

wants to go up the slippery road, that's

a lot of energy wasted, it's not

efficient in terms of distance and energy.

Well, next there is also

underground mining. Well, underground

mining is like underground mice

that go into the ground

to make tunnels. Well, underground

mining is different from open pit.

Underground mining does not dig up the

top part of the earth. They

go into the ground to make

tunnels for exploration. Well,

there are pluses and minuses too, especially the

deeper exploration. It's clear,

friends, because he's underground

mining, so eh, they can

focus more deeply rather than sideways. For

example, if the open bit is sideways,

right? If underground mining is

deep, it is because it is looking for

something that is in another place, eh,

not just in that place. For

example, if there is an open bid, the same things are being

dug, not looking for anything, that's the

term compared to underground

mining. But the

positive thing is that underground mining

doesn't damage the surface, friends. The

trace of destruction is lower because

it enters the ground which

does not need to be destroyed, does not need to

be baled, etc.

The third is that the quality of the

mining product is usually higher

because it is mixed

with less other materials such as

ferrous, such as soil, such as boron

and others. And the last

advantage is that it is not affected

by the weather, friends. So

because it's underground,

if it rains, you won't

feel it.

Well, but there are drawbacks too, my

friends. The downside is that

the technology has to be advanced and expensive,

friends. Because the

corridors he made had to be

reinforced with

iron structures. So, if it's not

reinforced, it will collapse, right?

If it collapses, it will

increase business costs even

more and be more dangerous than an

open pit because the employees could be

disciplined.

Furthermore, the production volume is

also smaller, friends, in

underground mining because it is not

as efficient as open pit mining and lastly, the

labor is more expensive. As

we know, the riskier

a job is, the higher the

salary. Well, the last one is

dragging.

This is the dragging that is in the rivers,

friends. River banks to

take silica sand and

others. Well, there are pluses and minuses too, my

friends. The plus is that the

transportation costs are low because ee

he is on top, he is on the

outermost mainland.

The second is that the operation is very

efficient because there is no need to

mine very deep.

the material is also quickly moved from

place to place.

And the last one is not much,

there is no need for a lot of hauling trucks because

most of the dragging is done using something

like boats or

small trucks. Not like a

mining truck that is open bit. Well, there are

downsides too, my friends. The downside

is that not all locations can be used for

dragging. So, depending on

location, it is limited. And secondly,

the quality of the mine is usually

worse than open pit and

underground. And finally the

mining results are mixed with

other components.

Well, besides finding out

the types of mines, we also have to

know the types of silica deposits.

Well, the first one is quarzitide.

Quartzide is a type of silica that is

formed from rocks, friends.

Quartz rock. Well, this is the natural

deposit priority. Purity is

purity, yes. The purity of

this natural Quartz deposit is 90 to 98%.

Sometimes people know that silica is

just sand, my friends. In

fact, silica originally came from

rock. Well, what has become sand is

actually rocks that have been

eroded because the water has eroded them and moved

to another place to become sand and mixed

with the soil and

other elements. Well, next there is

fine quartz. This quartz findine is also similar

to quartzide, which is a rock,

friends. Well, the natural deposit

purity is higher than

quartzide, namely 95 to 99%.

higher. And the last one is

silica sand, friends. Well, so

here is the form of sand. The

natural deposit content is lower,

of course, because it is mixed with

other components, namely 85 to 95%

silica sand. Well,

these three types of deposits each

have their own characteristics,

friends. Well, if it's quartz, the

deposit reserves are large. The processing

yield is higher in Heilir

Puritus because it is higher, but

the margin is moderate because the costs are

also higher, right? Meanwhile, the

COG of fine quartz is

cheaper because

this fine quartz comes from a natural deposit and

its priority is already high, so the cost

at the factory is lower. There is no

need to purify it much because it is

already pure from the start. The

processing yield is also higher

because it has been delayed from

the beginning so it doesn't need to be cut much

by processing, eh, the yield.

Then the fourth, the third is that

the capex is cheaper than

quarzide and finally the margin is

higher than quarzit. But let

's also discuss

silica sand. Carry on. Well, this silica sand is

actually a

component, eh, the positive thing is that the KPX is

cheaper per ton. The

production volume is also large and the

exploration costs are very, very cheap,

friends. So, there's no need to bomb it,

no need to destroy it, no

need to cut it into pieces or anything like that. Just

scoop it up, just scoop it up like

that. Well, but we know that

everything that is positive has its negatives

too, right? Well, the negative here is that the

CEOG quarzide is high because it requires a

lot of processing in its heilir.

For example, here there is drilling, blasting,

crushing which causes

higher energy consumption, friends.

That's the downside.

And secondly, KPEX is more expensive and

intensive because it requires a large factory and

fixed assets. Well, if

the volume of this fine quartz is small, the

minus is that he gets less.

and its supply reserves are also more

limited than the quad.

Another downside is that exploration is more

expensive, even though the COG is cheaper,

but exploration is more expensive

because it is more difficult to find quartz,

friends.

And finally, the operational rotation speed is

lower than

quartz. So because there are fewer of them, they are

rarer, so

their operational cycle is also lower. So,

what are the disadvantages of silica sand? The downside is that

the deposit is low purity, so

it is more expensive to get it to smelter grade

because it needs to be purified again, which is

more steps

than if it was pure from the start.

Well,

[snort][clears throat]

to get into heilir products is

too far and too expensive. Because

I said earlier that the purity needed to

enter the smelter is already difficult,

let alone entering the

downstream product. Well, that costs more to

refine again. Well, another downside

is that the margin is thin and it is not suitable

for selling to the B2B industry because

B2B also needs margins, right? I ee ee

my friends also, if you have a business,

you definitely want a high margin, it's

impossible to want a

low margin like that, friends. So

we have the logic that ee for B2B

must have a margin that can provide margin

to our clients, which is

also a business.

[clears throat]

Next is why

this silica ee is associated with

semiconductors.

Well, as we should know,

there are properties of

ee that can conduct and not

conduct electricity. The first

is that the conductor conducts

electricity, my friends. And while the

insulator is the opposite, namely

holding electricity. So, here I

divide which ones are conductors and

which ones are insulators.

One of the insulators is rubber,

friends, rubber

and also wood, friends. The wood is

one of the installers. Meanwhile, the

most conductive conductor

is copper, friends. Suitcases,

and gold. So, where is the position of

silica as a semiconductor?

It's in the middle, folks. I

call it control

conductivity. So, the conductivity is

controlled, not too much

to conduct, but not too much to

repel either. So, he has the advantage

of control.

Well, this is the flow of downstreaming,

friends. The first thing we know for

ourselves is that in the quartz mine it goes into

the feeder. Well, this feeder is a tool

for

moving mining materials

. So, ee goes from the feeder

to the crusher, friends. The crusher is

ground but not yet smooth,

friends. The mash is still

rough. That's why it has to be put back into the

tool called balk. The balm is ground

again as a powder. So, after it becomes

powder, clean it with water.

Our initial product, namely

crystalline, emerged.

After it becomes crystalline, we need

oil for emm

or gasoline to send

our product to the smelter, friends. This is the

first number of hilisasi. The smelter is

going uh midstream from upstream to

midstream. So, this crystal goes into the

smelter and is put into what is called an

electric arc furnace. These crystals

will be burned until they melt.

Then after melting it goes into the

LED storage,

eh, the result of the electric arc is called that.

the technique is tapping. Well, next

is molding. Molding is

forming the results of this ledel, which is

formed in molding so that it will

produce the second product of the hilalization,

namely the metallurgical silicon block.

So, is this enough to

enter the solar panel and ee

chip industry? Not yet, friends. So we have to

have something called high grade refinery.

We send here also need

oil.

Well, here there are chemical processes

to break down impurities or

impurities.

Well, these impurities contain a

lot of them. There's iron, there's a suitcase, there's

gold maybe, there's land. So,

when used in the high-grade EE refinery, it

will be separated by chemicals

which will later become the output gas.

This gas is in the gas column.

[clears throat] Well, this gas is for ee

processes to separate

impurities. Well, later the remaining residue

after it has become very pure becomes

what is called polysilicon, remember. It is

like a lump of silicon resulting from

refined silicon metallurgy

. Well, is that enough

? That's not enough, folks.

It will go into a machine called the

Chozarski Furnance, where it will be cleaned

again, melted again, and made into

crystals, friends. Well, that

requires a huge amount of electricity.

After that, what will it do for

wafer manufacturing

? For cutting, trimming, and also

diapping, friends. Lapping and

polishing. What is the purpose? Cut it to

make small shapes like

this. Round plates,

circular plates, and also

lapping and polishing. The aim is

to make sure that the wavers are not

contaminated with dust

and soil. So it has to be really

clean, guys. This also uses

electricity. So from upstream to

downstream we already have the assumption

that the first COG is electricity

and also gasoline. Next is this

is uh the flow of COGS in the

[cough][clears throat]

process and COGS in the refinery.

First we have to remove the chloride

, metal chloride. Well, throw it away

using these gases, friends.

Chloride gas and also hydrogen chloride.

eh silicon

eh warm polysilicon is formed with impurities of

6N. 6N means 6 times 6, eh 9

times 6, sorry, that's 6n. For example, if 9 is

7N, then 9 is 7 times that, which means 7N, right? Well,

6M is suitable for entering the

solar waver industry. Later, after

entering the solar rover industry, it will be

processed again through texturing, diffusing,

and doping. Doping is gridded,

folks. So, this will

be shaped so that the lights

can be made into light that

produces electricity. So, after that,

make this ee solar waver into a

solar cell, okay? Well, this solar cell is a

waver that can

produce

electricity from sunlight because it is

reflected from all kinds of things.

So I don't really understand the process,

but that's roughly the picture,

friends. So, after the solar

panels, we will move to the chips. Well,

this chip is higher, folks.

the purities must be higher, much

higher. That's why we need a

lot of additional CO2, namely chlorine

gas again, hydrogen chlorine again,

trichlorosine, what is this ee again and also

hydrofluoric acid again. Well, to

create these 11N wavers, the

purity of the friends must also be high.

So this purity is lower, this purity is

higher. For CO gas, the

grade is also higher. We have to

remove carbon, remove phosphorus, remove

boron, then make

pure silicon 11n. 9 is 11 times 9 9 9 9 9

to 11. Well, after that, after

the purity is 11n, the polysilicon

will be cut into silicon waver

purities. Bear silicon waver purities.

Well, because

11 in is expensive, that's why it needs more

repetitive processes,

Friends, use COG here. Well,

after we get silicon wavers

to enter the chip industry, we

must have a machine called

photolithography. Well, in this lithography photo

, these wavers will be fired by a

laser. This laser is used to make the

transistors in the

waveforms. Electrical lines were made

. Well, in

these electrical lines, if you have ever seen them

on a cellphone, there are like lines.

These lines are for conducting

electricity actually and can also be for

controlling electricity as well. That's why we

use lasers because the smaller they are,

the more efficient they are. If you use

physical, it won't work,

friends. Because the

things that make the chip are too big.

Meanwhile, if you use a laser, you can

make

as many chips as possible on one wafer as possible.

Produces waver chips.

The name of the process in photolithography

is fotolavik

like that. Well, this column is

actually for distalization, my

friends. So, this wasting is

called distalization. I call it

this step-by-step process until the

purest distalation is depth of

separation distallation.

Okay, let's continue.

Well, here is the estimate from

my calculations, friends. So

if this 1 ton is going to be

silicon wafer and be uh solar wafer I

found that there will be something called

processing yield loss from

uh its purity. So, if we want to

purify, we have to

throw away a lot of things, friends. In

this rock, there are many other chemicals,

many other compounds that must be

removed, such as boron,

aluminum, nickel, for example, or

others. Well, what we

need to make wave silicon and

solar silicon is

real silica, which if possible has a

higher priority,

pure silica. We don't want

silica mixed with iron and everything.

That's why here, ee, we

estimate that each

healing process is also different,

Friends. For example, like here,

from high-grade quartz stone

to silicon wafer, the reduction is

80%, friends. 7 78 to 80%. Come

here to the silicon policy, remember that ee

is midstream, it's down 65%

to 70%, friends. So 1 ton.

So the remaining T 3.0

tons is the same as up to 30 3.5 tons. Meanwhile, the

silicon waver is 0.2 tons to

2.2 tons. Well,

we have to pay attention to this processing yield, friends.

Because we count it from tons. If

we count 1 ton of quartz stone,

don't count 1 ton of bear silicon

wover because that's too biased,

friends. Well, these are the

prices that I took from the

siuan index reference for metallurgical silicon

block and have been adjusted. So, all of

this has been adjusted with the

processing yield. Well, what

you need to know is that not all

quartz stones can be used as silicon

wavers.

Well, this low grade is only for

buildings, right? Most likely just go into

another crystal. can't get to the

metallurgical silicon block. Well,

meanwhile, the mat grade or medium

grade can be inserted into the silicon

block. But to get into the

silicon waver and bear solar waffer is

too far and too expensive to

make the natural deposit

more pure. Meanwhile, the high grade is

because it is pure from the start.

So to enter the solar wafer

and silicon waver, it's just a matter of

continuing the purity. there was no

need for him to separate them like that from the very beginning

.

Well, this next is gross value

creation by revenue yield adjusted. Well,

so because I have just adjusted from 1

ton of stone it will make eh only

0.4 tons of silicon remember, Friends. Eh,

silicon block sorry. Yes, the silicon block

loses 40% 60% of its total mass.

Next, remember that silicon has

decreased by 70%, friends. 65 to 70%.

So, we see here that this

is

value creation from the price of goods

that has been adjusted to the

processing yield.

So, if 1 ton of quartz is

made into chips, the price

can increase from 40 times to 1000 times

. I use that range so that the

standard deviation I'm talking about is

more meaningful because the prices of

goods in this industry are quite high,

my friends. So, the indexes are

not all the same. There are countries

where the prices or

quality are different and so on. So

we use range, guys.

So, from the deposit, we can see from the

silicon block, remember, from solar to chips, the

value creation is very large,

friends, in terms of selling price. But

is that selling price enough? Well, we

have to know about the materials industry first.

So, this purity is just purity is the

key, the key is purity. If

the purity is low, it is

only used as an industrial material, namely for

construction purposes such as ordinary building sand

. But if the purity increases

slightly, it will enter the glass industry,

which also has a larger margin. And

the last, eh, the second last,

eh, is from the solar panel industry and the

chip industry which have even higher

purity.

Next, this is

my own calculation and

refers to the research that I

found, namely that the COG of this quartz stone is

30 to 70 tons. China and

ASEAN must adjust to the COGS

that reaches downstream. Because if we

just talk about price, that's also pointless.

We want profit not only from

price, not only from revenue. So, uh,

high turnover, if the COG is set high, it's also

useless. Well, I will uh adjust the

yield from COGS

quartz stone to COGS wafer uh solar

and also silicon and polysilicon remember

and also silicon block metallurgy. So,

uh,

I want to find the GPM or gross

profit margin.

Well, after that, we also need to know

how heavy the investment is for KEX,

how much it takes to make

these products. It turns out that from

crystalline KX to metallurgical silicon

block it is still low. But when you

enter the warm polysilicon kapex, it

becomes even higher, friends.

Well, this is the highest, friends.

Because to enter the raw

silicon wafer and also raw silicon, eh

waver,

eh solar wafer and silicon waver, it

requires lower kapex than

silicon policy because to enter

here it is only for cutting and

polishing, right? So you don't need

much. What is needed here is a lot

because it requires distillation from

refineries and others. And I

found the GPM from the range in several

countries from the world to China and

also Europe that the GPM is

metallurgical silicon block 0 to

62%.

When we talk about GPM, it's impossible for it to be

negative. And after that

this silicon policy is 0 to 51%. R la solal

wafer ini 0 ke 52% dan juga R

silicon wover. 0 to 80%.

Well, this is just GPM, friends, right?

We will adjust the GPM

to the price set from the

revenue. So, GPM is from revenue, not

from last year's GPM COGS,

friends. Uh, COGS of previous item.

Well, this is the value

creation triangle according to the EBITDA or

earnings before interest depreciation and

amortization yield adjusted estimation.

So this has been adjusted by the yield, eh

processing yield, sorry. And it

has also been adjusted with the gross profit

margin, eh, against the

prices of the goods. Here are

the prices, we can see them here, the

prices are this much. Let's say the profit margin is

10,000, the profit margin is 80%, which

means the 8,000 margin is the net, eh,

gross profit margin. But that's from 1

ton, folks. Because

this year we don't all have it, we are affected

by processing yield. So,

this year, if we enter the

chip industry, how much will the chip industry

decline?

70 to 80%. 78 to 80%. This means that

if for example the price of this deposit is

10, the margin is 20%, which means

10 dollars, 20%, which means 2. Well, when the

price in the waver

chip industry is 1,000 dollars, the

margin is 80% of 1,000,

friends, so the margin is 200, right?

Sorry, the margin is 1,000 dollars, 800 margin.

So, we calculate from the margin

in the mine, which was previously 10 dollars, a

20% margin is 20 dollars, sorry, so it becomes 800, that is, the

value creation has increased.

Well, this value creation is caused by the

technology to process it,

friends.

Okay, let's continue. Eh, here I am

explaining about the

logistics distribution for the COGS of the

silica industry, ee, which I explained earlier,

there are several chemicals, gases and

others, I assume that

they all buy them, friends.

Because not all countries have all the

goods they need. so I

came to the conclusion to

take the country with the biggest exporter

only. Well, for example like

this. I got the hydrogen chloride

from Germany because COGES is the

largest exporter in the

hydrogen chloride industry.

Then chlorine gas. I got this chlorine gas

from Canada because it is the

biggest exporter. And this one is

hydrogen chloride and also hydrofluoric acid

from China, friends. Well, so

I made this to see the sensitivity

to oil prices and also war,

friends. As is currently

happening in Iran and also America. Well,

from Germany, you can go directly to Asia

via Sues or overland via

Hormus, right, friends? This is very

sensitive to the price of

oil, my friends. Because here in

Sues there is a conflict from Israel, there is a

conflict from Yemen too, Haut. And

here too, there is danger, friends, there are

pirates from Somalia or

sea pirates, yes, friends. so it

will require a bigger cost

in terms of oil.

If, for example, this is circulating from Germany,

this is even bigger, Friends, in terms of

oil costs. So it's a dilemma.

So I wrote here sensitive

to war, Friends. Well,

Canada is not directly sensitive

, but it is sensitive to

oil prices. Well, because this is far,

friends. from Canada to China is

how many thousand kilos or Indonesia is even

further. So I wrote here

not to be sensitive about war, but

indirectly, right, friends? Well,

next in China. Well, this China is

interesting, friends. So the two

components for this refinery are

[snort] in China, folks. Well,

if we were producing in

Indonesia, we wouldn't be sensitive to

war because it's close and not

blocked by Hormus and Sues. And

if, for example, it were made in China, the

downstream would be even more profitable because

China already has its own raw materials.

Well, next I've given

my variable importer the boxes

for COGS and all that. I

divide the three important variables, namely

logistics.

How are the logistics? Yes, the

medium is sensitive to the

Middle Eastern War for its shipping.

I've already made the assumption. And the

second thing is the same as before, if this is a war

on oil prices. If there is a war in

winter, it will definitely be correlated with

oil prices. But I wrote this in e-oil

price itself because Canada is

not sensitive to war, but

indirectly it is sensitive to

oil prices for shipping.

Then the third one is, oh,

I wrote this wrong, it should be

here. I'll delete this later. Okay,

next is FX volatility. Yes, of course,

friends, in

exports and imports, there is definitely a

currency risk. So,

next from logistics we

move on to production, friends.

Production from upstream to downstream,

friends. The first is regulation

and bureaucracy. Well, we have to

monitor our friends, what are the current regulations

in Indonesia? Well, or

what about in China?

This is related to demand too but

later. Well, the next thing is that

production requires electricity and cabbage, it

requires coal, it requires electricity, right,

to produce it, which I

have already made, so there are two COGS,

electricity and also the most

important oil. Okay, next is

material price.

What happened earlier, what gas was there, we also

have to pay attention to all of that, friends. in terms of

price, supply, and also the contract.

If, for example, the company has a

contract, friends. And the

last one is demand, yes. So, I

entered this demand as an important

variable to see whether

anyone in this industry would want it or not.

Well, this is where the economic multiplier comes from.

Well, the purpose of government demand is

to multiply the economy,

right? So, will

using these derivative products from

silica multiply their economy?

So I put it into the important

variables to see whether the government

wants to enter the

silica industry or not to expand

their economy. Well, that's a

potential demand. Well, next

is green energy efficiency. I

put it in here because ee is like China.

China, ee, because of the

large-scale electricity production from

coal, it also causes high pollution, right?

So the silica industry offers

efficiency from green energy, for

example. And the third is tech

innovation such as microchips and

others. I don't want to

discuss this anymore because it's too long for the

innovation tag. Next we will

discuss the 100 year marathon. So

we know for ourselves that the current macro event

is that China wants to fight the US,

friends, as the

second superpower or even wants to be the

first. The main competitors are

microchips and also solar panels from the

silica industry. Well, what's interesting

is that the microchip and solar panel are

n't just made from valves.

So, there are items that are

complementary, yes. Eh, sorry, what is complementary or

substitution? Just a moment, my

friends. So, to make

this solar panel, you also need glass, right,

friends? So, to make

solar panels, even though we can't

sell the solar panels because we ca

n't process them, at least we can make

the glass. same goes for HP too. At

least if we can't

make the microchip, at least we can

make the glass. Okay, next is

here I have explained about what

I have made about the

distribution of

activity from solar or from the sun.

The first is the annual average of

temperature and sunlight irradiance,

right here, sunlight irradiance and also

annual sunlight exposure, friends.

So there are three different things that we

have to understand to understand solar

activity.

Here I have made a graph

from someone's research. So, this

is an output effectiveness graph. So,

the effectiveness of this solar panel

will vary depending on the temperature. Well, so

this is the solar panel.

Well, so this solar panel is actually

[clears throat]

effective in generating electricity if,

uh,

if the sunlight is high,

friends. Not from

the temperature. Well, you can see that

if the temperature is 70

Celsius, you can only get

this much voltage.

So, he can't capture power

from the sun's brightness or

irradiance to this extent. For

example, if the temperature is only 25 Celsius.

Here, you can also see that there is a marginal

effect, friends. The expectations are

up to here, right? But

because of the temperature,

the temperature is getting higher at a

certain level, at certain levels,

our expectations will be increasingly

ineffective. The initial effect is that

the expectations are this high because

the temperature is getting higher, 35 degrees

is no longer effective, but if

the temperature only reaches 30 degrees, it's

still the same, it's normal. Well, we're

back here. Come back here. Well, let's

see here, the green ones

that I have marked are the

most effective areas for

making solar panels. The first is the

annual average temperature. Well, the

temperature here is low, friends.

Here the temperature is not too

high on average throughout the year in

this green-green area. This one is

red Indonesia, right? This Brazil is red

because it is on the equator, right? Well, but

is it only temperature that we can

measure?

There is another one, namely sunlight irradiance or the

power of sunlight. It's clear,

friends. Bright not hot. Well,

we see this here most clearly. I

radians is this yellow area

, friends. The highest,

yellow to white here. Sahara region,

China region, India region, America and

others.

Well, the average irradiance is almost the same for

all of them, friends. But

the temperature is different, my friends. Well,

so high irradiance, low temperature

is good.

Low irradiance, low temperature,

bad. Then the irradiance is high,

the temperature is very high. yeah, it's ugly

too. So we see here this is

red, this is yellow, it means it's normal, it's

bad. For example, if it's green here,

the temperature is low but the

irradiance is high, friends. Well, it's

very effective

from a geological perspective, from a scientific perspective,

not from a cost perspective. So the

last one is annual sunlight

exposure. So how many

hours of sunlight exposure do you have in 1 year? Well, let's

see here in China, in Arabia, in

America it's yellow, friends. It has

long sunlight exposure, my

friends. Yes, right? Well, the sunlight

exposure is long, so the

countries on this green line have the

best clean energy from

solar panels. So my thesis

is that there will be a lot of demand from

these countries, especially during times of

war, right? War causes

logistics to stall. So,

rocks can't pass, oil

can't pass. So the electricity

must come from another source. And

one of them is solar panels, which are

green, efficient, and

only require the sun, friends, in

terms of cost to produce them

like that. Okay, next [clears throat]

I've made a table for uh cost

and benefit range estimation, okay. We

know that there is no range,

no fixed estimate, or

fixed price in this world because every

region is different, friends.

Well, that's why I gave this range

for global, friends. So that the

standard deviation is further.

The first one [clears throat] there are solar, wind,

gas, coal, and nuclear as a

comparison of energy, ee

what kind of energy generators are there. Well,

next is the

matrix, friends. That is

CO2/KWH or kW/h. Then there is capex live

lifetime capex per uh kilow hour in USD

and COGS of course and the risks,

guys. As well as compatible terrain

for installing the power plant

. Not all terrain mods

can be equipped with the same power generator

. yes. Here, the greener the more

effective. The redder the ee, the less

effective it is. If the green is low, this

means it is effective, but not that effective

. Well, firstly, let's look at solar energy,

ee, the green side is not as

effective as nuclear energy, but ee,

the risk and CO2 are very effective,

friends, for generating electricity,

right? And if we look at gas, the

CO2/KWH

is not effective, friends.

He's red. Moreover, coal is even redder per

kilowatt hour. It's even higher in

carbon, right?

But higher col than gas.

That's why I saw, I gave it

this color. Well, but this gas kapex is

very cheap, Friends.

Very effective. He uses gas pipes and then

turns them into turbines, as far as I know, the

gas then

turns the turbine. But as far as I know,

but I don't know, ee, as far as I know.

Well, next, the kapex of this coal is

cheaper, ee more expensive than

all of them, friends. But the

most expensive thing is nuclear, the most

inefficient. So nuclear is actually

the most efficient in terms of CO2/kW

hour.

[snorts]

But [clears throat]

everything's red, guys. Kapex,

COGS, Risk and so on.

But I forgot to provide another matrix,

namely the land requirements,

friends. So you have to pay for the land

too, right? So, actually, if we

talk about ee solar solar

panels,

what is it?

So I forgot to give the

land variable,

friends. Because when we talk

about planets, we need a large area of ​​land

to build them. So,

later on another day,

I will discuss the issuers of solar

power solar panels. Okay,

besides that [clears throat]

we can see from the market share of

Global Solar Installation

2023. Well, it turns out we found that

uh I found that the

largest solar panel installation is

in China, friends. The majority in 2023

is 51%.

Well, so I see this, in

China there is mass production of solar

panels, friends.

What used to be expensive to install

solar panels, is now cheaper because of

mass production. Well, that's why I

want to get this Chinese market,

one of the reasons is

[cough][clears throat]

in terms of irradiance,

irradiance, temperature, and also sunlight

exposure are very effective for friends

in China and also in the US, right

[cough][clears throat] US is 8%, well, Europe is also

big. Well, that's why [snorts]

I see there's demand. If,

for example, the US and China want to go to

war, they have more

energy resilience because they don't need to import

from abroad. Ee as COGS,

for example, coal needs to be imported, gas

also needs to be imported. Europe is why when

the gas was shut off from the ee pipes in

Russia, they were overwhelmed with energy. But

if they have solar panels, then

they don't need any gas, right?

Well, that's it, folks.

Well,

sorry. Well, so we see here from

Medan too, friends.

Medan also has an influence, friends.

Because not all types of

power plants can be planted with

everything.

Okay, guys. One of them is

win. Well, I have this question. Surely

you will ask, there will be those who

ask, "Why doesn't China

just use turbines, friends? Use win ee

turbines like in the Netherlands, right? Well,

here we see

there must be a wide, open plain,

right? Meanwhile, China, we see here, the

topography is high, friends.

There are white ones even in Tibet,

right? Tibet is high, right?

[cough]

[clears throat]

This is suitable for solar because

ee the area is open. If for example

in the mountains, there are

not many mountains in China, there are

not many trees, friends in the

Himalayas near Uigur,

Uigur places don't need

many trees and in fact these mountains are

more efficient precisely because no one

lives there so it's cheap to build

solar panels, yes, to cook to

install there, so the

cost is cheaper. And if we look at the world,

it's flat, right. If for example there

are no mountains, it's flat. Well, when there are mountains,

ee the same amount of land compared to

flat ones is bigger. Because mountains

fold like this, right? So he can

install more.

[cough][clears throat] He has

additional space than the flat ones.

Meanwhile, this wind turbine or ee turbine

like in the Netherlands requires a flat one. It

can't be installed in

high places, friends. In

the mountains, they can't be

installed because it's too risky if

there's a landslide or

something, it's expensive to build it

again.

Okay, next is the speculative

story in Indonesia. Well, I see

there are issuers that produce

silica. One of them is MITI, KKGI,

cuan and kelas.

[snorts]

MITI and kelas are not yet operational,

friends. So I see MITI is

still speculative. Kas is also still

speculative, but he has already received a permit,

friends. MITI's consensus permit

is a very large permit,

friends. 9,000 hectares, 9,800 hectares.

While this kelas is only 400 hectares.

Well, here I can see this

speculative story that we can take

to add to our position as a

retailer Investors,

so we can gain from the speculative

story, we have to see

what the catalysts are. Well, this is my

estimate from several sources, which

says MITI is 90 to 97%.

Yes, it's bad for solar fans,

and microchips aren't yet available. But

at least, if there's expansion in the future,

building refineries and all sorts of things, it

could be better than the

others. Because they have a

higher land consensus, even though it's not operational yet.

This isn't operational yet, and logistics

are cheap, friends, by geography.

I'll explain later in the

next section.

And at MITI, Sandiaga Uno is

certainly affiliated with him, right? [clears throat]

So, mining requires stricter regulations,

so it needs

stronger political figures. Well,

next there's class. This cash is

smaller, and the purity can't be estimated, it

can't be estimated, I

can't find any data sources. And

there's KKGI, which also can't be

estimated. And finally, there's profit,

friends. KKGI and profit are already

operational, friends, eh

mining The silica.

Well, and the estimate is based on geology.

I didn't find this, uh, uh, the

sources of profit, but based on the

geology, the profit in East Kalimantan is

91 to 99%, friends. Uh, the

purity. Even if I'm wrong, but

at least the purity there is on

average that much from the geology

I read on Google. Okay, the second thing

is the location, I don't know yet,

friends.

I don't know the boundaries of this profit yet. Well,

clearly, it's in

East Kalimantan in the

next part, uh, I'll discuss that.

[clears throat]

[snorts]

Well, here, this profit is not clear

because it doesn't have boundaries in

this area.

And what's the advantage?

The infrastructure is more complete,

friends. in East Kalimantan.

[snorts]

But the downside is we don't know

where the mining location is that extracts it. Meanwhile,

the infrastructure is

poor, but uh, it's close, friends. Mind

to port. Mind to port. What's the distance from the

mine to the

e-port? Uh, port.

So, the ee port is close to the mine, the

mine is also close to the port.

So, operations can be

potentially cheaper. That's why I'm

including MITI here because it has

potential.

So, let's take a look at this for a moment

before we judge, let's discuss

MITI first. Well, MITI is

close to the port.

So, for e-ports, importing materials

from abroad, like gas

and also data, uh, sori data, and also

chemicals and other things. The data

I mentioned earlier, I

presented, is

cheaper for MITI because it's close

to the port. Imports there are close, only 2

to 10 kilos, and exports are also close,

2 to 10 kilos, so it has the potential to be a

low-cost producer, friends. Well,

I don't know the location of this cuan

,

but it seems more central than

MITI, which is closer to the sea.

[snort]

[clears throat]

So, finally, uh, we'll judge the silica

industry in Indonesia.

The first is demand.

This demand is dark green, Friends, I see

good demand. In terms of exports, there's the

fight between America and China, and the

Middle East conflict, so

energy will need to be sought alternatively. Not

to mention the narrative from ee China that wants to

reduce dependence on oil, wants to

use electric cars and everything

electric. If you go to Concing, a

modern city in China, everything is

based on electricity, friends. That's why

I see where this is good,

friends. If everything

uses electricity, it will require

more power, so diesel will

decrease, and electric power will be in

higher demand. So there's market share

that

ee is taking. So we're making the distribution

mild, mild-effective. So, in

the distribution, there are some COGS that

must be imported, related to the war.

There are also those that aren't like that, like ee,

who had two COGS in China. The

last one—uh, sorry, the last one is the

supply. I also

see good supply, friends, because

the supply is abundant, but the value

creation is large, friends, right?

So, abundant, large value creation

means the margin is very large,

friends, not eroded by

price increases. sensitive. So, silica is

not price sensitive because it has a

large supply. But if it

is downstreamed, the value creation is large

so the CO2 remains the same, but

the margins can be higher. If,

for example, the technology is more advanced, it can be

made into iPhones,

things like that, right?

But the processing in Indonesia

is poor, friends. There are no

revenues, no refineries, right? We can't

make wafers, we don't have

photolithography machines and other things

. So I see

the processing is very poor in

Indonesia. So we can only export

it for ee

[clears throat]

to become solar wafers or

silicon wafers. Now, the next thing

is regulation. Well, the regulation for

silica is unclear. I haven't

found regulations that are as strict

as coal, nickel, and

gold. Well, I see the potential, my

friends, very good

potential. Logically, if we

can't make wafers, at

least we can make glass. If,

for example, they want to make solar

wafers, solar panels need a

lot of glass.

Want Making a cellphone requires a lot of glass,

making an e-laptop requires a lot of glass.

Electric cars also require a lot of glass.

That's why I see this industry as having

high potential, friends. Okay.

Okay, next is a quote

from One Buffet. For those of you who are still

confused about research, like, "Bro, I'm

afraid of making a mistake." "It's also a headache to find the data.

" Well, we can

estimate. That's why Warren Buffett once

said, "It's better to be roughly right

than precisely wrong." So it's

better to be a little bit right

than to be totally wrong for one

buffet. And these are eh quotes that

can be used to make a reset.

And these are the resources,

eh, data and also

facts that I used from

these websites to make the research that

I presented earlier. Okay, that's all

from me. E hope you learn,

Friends. Goodbye.