SpaceX IPO: Get Rich or Get Wrecked

[music]

SpaceX is doing something that no other

company has ever done with an IPO of

this size. They're going after retail

investors. Dumb money. Not with the uh

usual 5 or 10% allocation, but with 30%

on the largest IPO in history. That is

roughly $25 billion sold directly to

everyday investors like you. The price

locked at 135. Trading starts in two

days. It's Rockets. It's Starlink. It's

XAI. all wrapped up into one ticker,

SPCX.

But remember, this company has lost

nearly $5 billion last year. The IPO is

priced at a hundred times sales. Elon is

keeping more than 80% of the voting

power. Some analysts are saying that

it's overvalued by about double. And

then there's Jim Kramer saying it's

undervalued and worth $5 trillion. The

right answer probably in there

somewhere. So, is this the most

accessible moonshot ever offered to

regular investors? Or are you the exit

liquidity for the smart money insiders

that are and you're about to blow up

your portfolio? Today on Dumb Money,

will the SpaceX IPO make you rich or are

you about to get wrecked? [music]

>> This is Dumb Money Live.

Hey there, Dave here along with Chris

and Jordan. We are Dumb Money. Welcome

to Dumb Money Live. If you're already

smashing the uh refresh button on your

brokerage app every 20 seconds trying to

get some allocation, take a second and

smash the like button. It will bring you

good luck. Uh Chris Jordan, the uh 30%

retail getting in on this biggest IPO in

history sounds generous, but is it

really? Because there's the valuation,

the losses, the control. I want to hear

from both of you um on your takes on the

real riskreward and how this is

different than when we invested in

SpaceX back around 2020. We have a lot

to talk about there, but first, are

either of you uh buying in on on

Thursday night?

>> I am not. Um I've got a lot of thoughts

here. Um,

uh, and you I don't know if this is the

right time to air all of them, but I

think, you know, look, we can argue over

valuation all day long. I'm pretty sure

that anybody here would think that I'm

not a big fan of the valuation here, and

I'm not. Um,

but I don't even think that that's the

whole story here, right? That's like

that's the small the the crazy valuation

is the smallest part of this story. And

I think that the real story is like what

is going on with banking regulations

with um with like the NASDAQ um with um

let's who else is MS0000

>> all relaxing their you know um you know

their standards for letting companies

into

um you know into their products. I

>> this is gonna be a spicy episode. I can

tell you right now.

>> Yeah. I just I just don't I just don't

think you know look I mean the valuation

will get worked out in the market over

time. Um now could it jump and then fall

and then do all sorts of stuff? I mean

we're talking four like so the float

will be initially like 4% of the total

value of the company. So you get a

really tight float. um you've got um a

ton of interest and you've got

competition with um all these ETFs and

uh um and

um and institutional money with retail

investors. So, I think you're just

looking for a really volatile stock in

the in the near term.

>> So, Jordan is out. Chris, are you in or

out?

Well, as you guys both know, anyone with

$100,000

could have easily invested in SpaceX at

any moment during the last 6 years at

valuations between roughly 30 billion

where we invested and 300 billion. So

anyone anyone with any amount of wealth

could have easily thrown money into this

company at a very tiny fraction of what

it's about to IPO at in the not

tooistant past. So

>> they kept raising money and kept giving

more opportunities for people like us to

get involved early on. I I've had about

8,000 opportunities to invest in SpaceX

over the past six years. And you know,

we we did we did invest in SpaceX,

right? We invested at about a $30

billion valuation.

>> Uh we were forced out of that fund uh a

few years later at 200 and something

billion, I think. I don't recall the

exact number. I

>> think it was 300.

>> Yeah. What's interesting about

>> I think we're in closer to 50 and out at

300.

>> Yeah. What's interesting about that

investment is that um kind of the

dynamics of what their proposed

situation to let shareholders be liquid

was totally different than what's

actually happening right now. Um and I

actually thought that was a really good

plan. what they had initially was to let

you invest in SpaceX and that they were

going to, you know, they were going to

take the internet portion um and say,

"Okay, we're going to um you know, we're

going to section that off and we'll IPO

that, but we're going to keep SpaceX um

private, right?" And so that was the way

to get, you know, early investor

liquidity. Um that's still probably the

only uh portion of the company that's

profitable right now. I think they've

got 60% margins. It's a it's a huge

portion of their uh 2025 revenue. Um so

it

>> Jordan, we all knew it was BS. Every

institutional investor back in 2020

saying, "Well, if you invest in SpaceX,

you have to hold that. We are never

going public. This is this is for the

good of humanity." BS. BS. I said BS

back then. Shut the hell up, dude. this

thing is

>> I did that the spinning off of Starlink

made sense as as a as its own IPO,

right? Because it's actually a

profitable business.

>> That back then that that was kind of the

the one portion of the business that

seemed like, oh, this could be the

liquidity event. A small portion of the

bigger company.

>> Yeah.

>> Yeah. So, here here we are again years

and years being able to invest in SpaceX

at at the time what seemed like an

insanely high valuation, right? But and

now it's now it's about to IPO at a very

high multiple of that. An insane

valuation. Yeah, we all know the company

bought 24x trailing sales.

You know, Bill

>> 100x trailing sales. Um if you take into

account these two contracts from Google

and Anthropic, um maybe you have a

forward number that's getting closer to

60 times sales. Um, depending on the

ramp up of these contracts, we don't

really know all the details there yet.

>> Yeah, I mean, Jordan, investors are

paying future perfect prices on this IPO

for a business that still needs an

enormous amount of

>> technical innovation. You know, has to

get through a lot of regulatory stuff to

get to where it needs to be, right? Um,

and a lot of capital market execution as

well. On the flip side, you have to

admit this is a retail market right now,

guys, and this is Elon and it's SpaceX

and the bullcase is pretty wild, right?

If there's one thing that Elon is great

at, it's selling the future. And the

amazing thing about SpaceX and what I

always loved about this company when we

invested in it back in 2020 is that you

couldn't disprove anything that Elon was

going to say because it'd be so far out

in the future. Elon could say, "Hey,

we're going to mine tens of trillions of

dollars worth of rare earths, and we're

the only company that could actually do

that." There are just an infinite number

of things that you can just claim that

the company will do in the future, such

as space data centers, which are of

course highly controversial. And you

know, I think most people that are

really deep in that uh that technology

feel it's probably seven to 10 years

away. uh will we even need space data

centers by the time they're actually

ready to fully scale meaning scale

deployment not just in theory but

actually able to fully scale out

deployment will we even need them and

what will the value of them be at that

point in time right so there are just so

many questions here but there will

always be an amazing narrative around

SpaceX that investors who are in the

company can claim well here's how we are

going to get to this valuation ation.

Here's how we're going to get to a $10

trillion valuation. Here's how we're

going to get to a $50 trillion

valuation. You could just make up

anything because it's space.

>> Yeah.

>> We don't even know what the hell's going

on right up there in perpetuity, right?

So, we could be like, we're going to

reivilize

something that we've never even seen

before off of Mars.

>> Well, correct. You could be like, "Hey,

when when we need to get people from

here to that planet, SpaceX is the only

company and they could charge whatever

they want." I mean, you could just keep

making up story after story. And I have

a feeling that's exactly what's going to

happen. The same way we started hearing

information about uh, you know, data

centers in space. Listen, Elon has spent

the last two years talking about how

robots and humanoids would be infinitely

larger than anything else that Tesla did

put together. And we were going to have

the robot at this date doing this. And

here we are right in June of 2026. their

robot program appears to be meaningfully

behind uh some of the others even with

the infinite resources that Elon has

access to and quite honestly a fairly

large head start as well. So we haven't

really seen the level of execution

across the spectrum of things that Elon

can do. Let's talk about the sub company

of XAI. XAI was supposed to be a massive

leading frontier lab, right? it was

going to be right up there with OI and

with Anthropic. And the truth is, I've

been saying this for two and a half

years and everyone got pissed at me.

They never had a chance. They never had

a chance to actually capture revenue

from end consumers or end business. And

I always said they would ultimately just

end up being a data center because they

did not have the skill set to properly

position that company uh to

play in the the game that OI and

Anthropic was playing with enterprise or

with consumers and they did

>> which is exactly what's happening if you

look at the contracts that uh that

Google and Anthropic are um committing

to SpaceX.

>> Jordan, that's exactly what I said. it

would end up being a data center company

because that's the one just building

what Elon is amazing at amazing at

>> is simply uh financial engineering

raising infinite amounts of capital

placing companies underneath each other

IPOing what needs to be IPOed in order

to get the capital to actually do the

thing that essentially he's [snorts]

great at doing which is just moving a

million miles an hour right with

something with with his data center

projects to build now the biggest data

center in the world by a factor of like

I don't know what is it like 10 or 30.

It's the terrafab. Uh so by the way I

think that's probably a really smart

strategy for Elon and SpaceX. But we

have to admit that XAI wasn't what it

was supposed to be. X is not what it's

supposed to be. I don't know of a single

major content creator on X that's happy

with X today. All right. Like not a

single one. It's like I I every single

major content creator on X is like

completely distraught uh with what's h

what been happening on X the last two

years, two and a half years. Um so

SpaceX is a special company. We all know

that, right? Uh SpaceX, you know, didn't

ask for permission. It asked for

forgiveness. They just moved at a

million miles an hour in terms of their

buildout, their innovation. I heard, you

know, they just did whatever they had to

do uh to get those rockets off. I mean,

that's kind of the story uh that a lot

of people know about behind the scenes.

Uh they didn't necessarily go through

proper channels uh in in terms of

building out that program and it worked

for them. SpaceX is miraculous. Like

SpaceX is one of the most spectacular

companies we have ever seen in our life

and the innovation there has just been

ridiculous. It's an amazing company.

Like I don't think anybody would argue

that SpaceX is an insanely amazing

company. It's just the valuation, right?

I love the company. I love the vision. I

love what they've done historically. I

love what they have the chance to do. I

just don't love it as an investment at

these prices.

>> Dude, I mean, why would we pay 6x what

we could have bought this for like just

a very short time ago, right? Here's

>> I'm kicking myself for not buying back

in, you know, a couple years ago.

>> Who knows what's going to happen between

now and 180 days from what, Thursday? So

you know maybe you get the chance again.

>> So that that's the thing that this

company has a really small float. They

are going to accelerate the entry into

at least some of the indexes meaning

that the indexes will be forced to

purchase off of a very small float. So

there's essentially a massive tailwind

and almost like a floor on this stock at

least from my perspective. So, it feels

like the stock probably should do okay

or pretty good unless people are

figuring out ways early on to hedge

their positions that they're looking to

liquidate uh once they're able to

liquidate those positions, right? And

Elon has this tiered structure where the

better the stock does, the the more you

could liquidate early. Like if a stock

is up 30% from its IPO, I think uh

investors are allowed to start

liquidating that stock. Listen, here's

the thing, guys. It It's really hard to

assess how this does over the next 6 to

12 months. Just really difficult. I

think investors are falling into a trap,

not because they choose to invest in

SpaceX, but because they choose to spend

so much of their time uh researching and

thinking about SpaceX. If you want to

invest in SpaceX, fine, do it. But if

you're spending an or or an an un an

ordinary amount of your time reading,

you know, expost and articles and

thinking about SpaceX, that I think is

the biggest investment mistake that

you've made all year because there are

so many great investment opportunities

right now and you're just spinning your

wheels following the herd, doing what

all the other idiotic investors do,

which is wasting their time on something

that they should be spending maybe 15

analyzing and making a decision on.

There are some trades here around

SpaceX. We can talk about those. I think

I think this IPO

um is going to lead to some interesting

I would say I think it will increase it

increases my conviction on some other

stocks. Right. We we should maybe talk

about that.

Do you want to talk for a second about

uh the confusion over the ticker symbol

and that other space sounding ticker

that that like blew up a few weeks ago

and then people realized and then it

just dumped?

>> It it happens.

>> Investors are so dumb.

>> Investors, guys,

>> dumb money is really dumb.

>> I'm I'm not going to rip I'm not going

to rip on any retail investor for being

dumb. The name of our channel is Dumb

Money. And the whole point is it's okay.

You're going to learn. The way that you

learn is losing money, right? So, and

there are a lot of

>> We all learned the We all learned that

way. So, there's nothing wrong with

losing money to

>> Hey, I have fat fingered a ticker symbol

and ended up with a whole bunch of

shares of something that I don't even

know.

>> I know you've done it, Chris. I know

you've done it.

>> He's done it live on the show before. He

It's This is I'm talking about like when

we were young and just starting out as

investors, like having crazy conviction

over things that were just stupid.

Yeah, but then there's also Chris fat

fingering a uh ticker symbol wrong.

>> Three times this year, guys. Three times

this year on like huge trades, huge like

options trades.

>> You have you have to go through the

process. Investing is a process, right?

Like and people like to this is you know

what this is the equivalent of investing

has become

uh people's personality, right? in 2026.

It's become a lifestyle and SpaceX is

the blockbuster movie. It's coming out

this week and investors want to feel

connected. They want to feel a sense of

community. They want to feel connected

to each other. It's an exciting

storyline. It's almost like a binary

bet. Everyone's trying to figure out

what's going to happen. Everybody wants

to put their bets in. I get it. I don't

think there's anything necessarily wrong

with that. But just understand

something. If that's who you are as an

investor, then don't look back in five

years and wonder why you're generating

something that's roughly close to market

returns and why you're not generating 2x

market returns or 3x market returns

because the guys that are doing that are

not spending 20 hours thinking about

SpaceX this week. They are looking at

names that they are actually going to

three, four, five, 6x on that aren't

called Space X in the near future. not

like in the distant future.

>> Near future though we have SpaceX isn't

the only mega IPO that we're talking

about. So OpenAI just yesterday

announced that they are uh going public.

Uh they posted a blog. They're not yet

saying when uh their last uh valuation

was 850 billion. And then last week we

had Anthropic at 965 billion. uh after

raising an additional 65 billion that

Anthropic uh last week announced that

they're going public. So what is an

investor to do to split their funny

money amongst all of these IPOs?

>> Guys, I if you're if you want to be a

great investor, the time to be making

those moves were months ago, years ago

on SpaceX, right? So like we when we

invested in SpaceX, we had a thesis that

Elon would continue to kind of paint

this picture of what SpaceX is capable

of because it was a space company. It

would be hard to disprove that retail

investors would pour into the IPO and we

would make an insane amount of money

throwing our money in at 30 something

billion and exiting at something much

larger than that. Now that's exactly the

way this played out other than

[clears throat] throwing out the fun. We

weren't thinking the the logic at the

time was that SpaceX was never going to

IPO and that hopefully there would be

something that was a spin-off.

>> That was that was never my logic. That

that

said

>> that's what they have to go back and

watch old episodes to see if you might

have uh said that too.

>> No, that that that we all knew SpaceX

was going to IPO. The exit was always

going to be the IPO, right? Um, and

whether they IPOed or basically IPOed

every single facet of SpaceX separately,

it didn't really matter, right?

>> No, that that's where that's where I

thought our heads were at the time is

that we have Starlink that can IPO. We

have all these technologies that are

offshoots of the master rocket company

that they might IPO independently.

>> Yeah. I mean, it it really doesn't

matter either way, right? The bottom

line is we were investing

early knowing that that was an

inevitability. Now we're here at the

inevitability and I have not a whole lot

of interest investing today because I'm

not sure that there's anything that I'm

aware of related to SpaceX that other

investors aren't. There's a lot of

debate, but man, this valuation is is

absolutely wild, guys. I just I'm

staying away from it here. I just don't

care about it. I care about other things

in this market. I think there are

companies that will benefit from this

IPO. They're what are they getting? 80

billion, Jordan. Is that roughly around

what they're getting?

>> Somewhere like 75 billion uh I think is

what the

>> So they're getting 75 billion. You have

to ask yourself where's that money

going? Um I think the most interesting

partnership that SpaceX has right now is

Intel. We all know that the future of

AI, at least over the next five years,

is really oriented around fabrication

and chips. And that Intel partnership is

super interesting to me. I've heard

some, you know, some people in my

network have even talked to me about the

possibility of SpaceX trying to acquire

Intel. I think there might be some

regulatory issues there. I think they'd

probably like to acquire Intel. whether

they actually acquire the company or do

what Jensen did at Nvidia recently with

one of his acquisitions where they just

basically acquire the parts, right? Or

they they they structure deals to where

they have exclusive access and licenses

to the technology uh to the chipsets

that essentially is the same as them

acquiring Intel. either way or even if

they just end up spending a ton of money

with Intel because Intel is an early

partner of Terraab. Uh they're obviously

uh closely associated with the United

States, which we know Elon uh loves

deals like that because it gives him

advantages in DC trying to get those

deals done.

>> Yeah,

>> I think Intel's really interesting here.

I think Intel is almost like a call

option on SpaceX and the success of

SpaceX uh in uh AI. Now that said, Elon

has also talked about obviously

developing his own chips in which case I

think you know Jordan if he goes down

that road would you agree um you kind of

have to move to you know some of the uh

fabrication companies themselves right

uh ASMI

uh those would be the beneficiaries of

him actually getting in the chip

business Right. But then really across

the entire spectrum of AI, especially

Nvidia, I I think no matter what, Nvidia

is going to be the cornerstone of his

kind of AI infrastructure buildout. So

that's a positive for Nvidia as well. So

these aren't necessarily sexy trades,

but it's yet another massive tailwind

supporting AI infrastructure. And if you

do your homework on SpaceX, you can kind

of see which of those players is most

likely to benefit most. Even SMCI,

right? Uh they are a company that I

think was a key infrastructure supplier

to Elon's last major uh AI factory.

>> SMCI just got a big contract. I don't

remember who through. The problem with

SMCI is that they are just not a trusted

name anymore with some of the scandals

that they've been through. Well, they

weren't a trusted name before. They're

not a trusted name now, and that's kind

of a known. Yeah.

>> But if Elon's coming into this money and

he's about to do the biggest fab the

biggest data factory ever, right, by

like an insane like factor of 10 or 30,

whatever it is, over any other data

factory and SMCI is providing liquid

cooled um infrastructure there. That's a

real needle mover for them, wouldn't you

say? So, like in my head, I'm thinking

SMCI, I'm thinking Nvidia, I'm thinking

Intel. Uh, these are companies that are

likely to benefit more than others from

this general success of SpaceX.

So, that that's where my head is going,

at least if I wanted to play this in any

way.

What do you guys think?

>> All right. So, what else? I It sounds

like No, nobody on on this Zoom call is

interested in uh SpaceX, and I'm I've

been watching the uh the chat.

>> Oh, really?

>> Yeah.

>> Good.

>> I mean, there are definitely some

believers, but um

>> yeah,

>> I I'm not seeing an overwhelming I wish

we could do a little poll, but I'm I'm

not seeing an overwhelming excitement

over it.

I I

>> I'm just saying it's a circus, right? Um

I'm surprised that Goldman's pushing uh

this hard on it.

>> Well, again, Jordan, I think that was

probably part of the deal, right? It's

like this this did not get priced. Elon

came out and said, "Here's what it is."

And essentially dared Wall Street to not

support him.

>> Are you not are you really not going to

support this deal? Do you want to be

left out of SpaceX?

And they're kind of their hand is forced

on this. And I think they're smart

enough to know that over the long run,

you can't disprove SpaceX either. It

doesn't really matter what what the

profits are, Jordan. Doesn't really

matter what the revenue is because

there's always going to be a new bucket

of revenue on the horizon for SpaceX.

That's three years away. That's four

years away.

>> End of the rainbow. That's infinitely

larger than anything that any company on

earth is doing today. And nobody else

>> trillion dollar XAI TAM by the way. Um,

you feel good about that?

>> The what?

>> The 28 trillion XAI TAN that's proposed

by the S1.

>> Dude, we're getting to a point in the

market, Jordan. And I know you're kind

of old school like me, even though I'm

technically older school than you, but

you think older school than me.

>> I'm older school than you. You're older.

Uh [laughter] that's it chronologically.

>> Fine. Um but I know this stuff bothers

you. It actually bothers me a lot.

>> Yeah. I it it bothers me a lot because

we no longer have kind of like a

backbone

of responsible

kind of like financial

uh

what's like governance, right? Like

>> Yeah. Well, I mean, look, so part of it

is that um kind of the trend lately is

for courts to um kind of push back on,

you know, some of the regulations that

were built around DOD um and uh kind of

turn those into self-governance for

corporations. And we all know how

self-governance works, right? So, um,

you get, you know, you get investment

banks, uh, uh, pushing deals and, um,

and there's really no oversight. Um, I

hate to say no oversight. There's

oversight, but it's,

um, you know, I feel like in the kind of

the current political environment, we're

kind of pro just pushing it out there.

>> Let's be more clear about it. I think

these companies, these regulatory

organizations, everyone involved

essentially is just an assembly of

humans and every human in 2026 is out

for themselves and everybody just wants

to make their money now because no one

knows what the future is going to bring.

Everyone's a little intimidated and

scared by the AI age that's rapidly

approaching and everybody wants to make

money for themselves. Now, this is part

of the political spectrum that has kind

of evolved over the past few years. It's

the business world. Uh, everyone's out

for themselves. Nobody cares. Nobody

cares about anything else than make

other than just making some quick money.

So, I I think the same thing goes for

Goldman, the sellside banks. Uh, they

want these deals. No one knows where

they're going to be working in two

years. So, they really don't care if

they screw the reputation of their

department. Uh, by the way, people don't

seem to be punished for any of that

stuff anymore. So, why would anybody

care? Like, why would they care? Like,

like it's no, we talked about this a

couple years ago.

>> Nobody cares because we haven't had a

catastrophe since, you know, 2000.

>> Why would they care even if we had a

catastrophe? As long as they get theirs,

right? Yeah, that's but that's when

that's when Yeah, that's when uh

lawsuits and congressional oversight

starts to kick in and you start to, you

know, potentially put people in in jail,

right?

>> Oh, potentially like 2008

potentially ended up in jail.

>> Have you not heard crime is legal in

2026? It just takes a million dollar

donation these days.

the the the integrity of financial

markets, [laughter]

guys. Guys, the integrity of financial

markets is not just broken. It's gone.

It's over. It's over. We we said this in

2008. In 2008, when when we just allowed

that to just happen and just nothing

ended up happening with any of the

people involved, right? We said at some

point in the future this would unravel

the entire uh financial system and and

and there would be that's where we are

today. It took 20 years almost 20 years.

Nobody cares. They just want to make

money right now for themselves, their

family. They they just want money. Like

that's just what it is. I don't know why

anyone's just not saying that. Everybody

just wants some cash. So, no matter

where you are on Wall Street, you you're

going to do whatever it takes to to get

your to get your piece and and that's

where we are and and it's disgusting.

I I would prefer that I'm the only

person out to get some cash and that

everyone else is was being prudent. Uh

[laughter] but but everyone's out to get

cash.

>> But but Chris, you don't do shady stuff.

>> I know. But I'm not involved in company,

right?

>> I'm not managing a company, right? So

that's the thing. I'm just trading. So,

like but thinking back to our good

friend Trevor Milton and the Nicola uh

you know

>> Tesla adjacent the Nicola Motors uh

fiasco and that dude is not in jail.

>> Notard,

>> you're exactly right. Trevor Milton is

out.

>> Why would anybody Trump's pardon him?

>> Oh yeah.

>> Yes, dude. It not only did he get

pardoned, but no one even talked about

it for more than 15 minutes. That's when

I knew for sure nothing matters anymore.

>> And by the way, like if if I was in a in

a fiduciary role, I would not be doing

any of that stuff. But I'm just here

trading, right? I'm just here investing,

working for myself. I only answer to

myself.

It makes me sick. I know Jordan makes

you sick. I don't know if Dave cares.

Dave, if you care. [laughter]

>> I don't care. Doesn't matter anymore.

Nothing matters anymore. [laughter]

>> You don't care. Uh let's [clears throat]

talk about some stocks. So there are a

couple of stocks that have been uh

blowing up in the comments. People

wanting thoughts on Amazon and whether

we're still quadrupling down. Uh I did I

did quadruple down. Uh

I mean I'm in Amazon right now. It's not

been a great week. I am somewhat

concerned. I I put out a post on X last

week. I'm somewhat concerned about

Amazon

u going down the road of what Meta and

Google did and issuing a huge

uh debt round. Now, I'm not actually

concerned about it. I'm just concerned

about the shortterm market reaction when

that happens. My assumption is that it's

already happening and that it's getting

leaked and that's some of the pressure

that we've seen on Amazon this past

year.

>> Yeah. I don't think it's just a concern.

I almost think it's a inevitability,

right? Um

>> yeah,

>> because Google um is gonna throw another

80 billion dollars, you know, down the

um hardware path and Amazon has to they

have to go toe for toe, right? Um

>> Jordan Jordan, I think I think I think

you're right. And I'm just kind of like

waiting on that to happen before I go

one level deeper on Amazon. I don't

>> I bought a little bit more Amazon in

this whole um in the last couple of days

with this whole uh flush out. Um

>> I I think the

>> crazy just you know an extra few

percentage points to my position

>> for for for me the the the best

perspective on Amazon here is to wait

for that shoe to drop. I think it's

going to happen within days to weeks.

when it happens, I think the stock is

going to drop and I think it will

quickly recover from it. So, I am

holding some cash on the side or some

leverage on the side, prepared to go

meaningfully deeper in Amazon if and

when that happens. I'm not expecting a

whole lot of Amazon until we get clarity

one way or the other on how much debt. I

mean, I think it's going to at this

point I think it's going to come down to

how much. It's not even whether they do

it or not.

>> 60 to 100 billion range probably, right?

>> I I think if it's 60, the market's going

to be chill with it. I think if it's 100

or 120 or

>> gosh, if it's more than that, Amazon

could get hit again, which would be fine

by me. I think they should raise another

200, honestly. Just raise 200. Um, I'd

be happy with that, but no one else

would be happy with that.

>> No, it it'd kill the stock temporarily.

So,

>> all right. Another one people have been

asking about Robin Hood.

>> Yeah, I mean cry crypto is a dumpster

fire still that will continue to

pressure Robin Hood. Other than that, I

see Robin Hood

>> being exactly the same company that I've

been investing in the last two years. I

think it's still the largest financial

tune on Earth in the next two decades.

And

>> we got Bitcoin in the low60s now.

>> Yeah.

>> I I don't need to trade Robin Hood. I

don't necessarily care about Robin Hood

in the short run. I have a healthy Robin

Hood position. I'm considering putting

more money into Robin Hood. I haven't

yet. I I'd like to see it drop a bit

more here. It's getting hurt with

crypto. You know, the worse crypto gets

hit, the harder that Robin Hood's going

to get hit. That's just the way it is in

the short run because they still are

meaningfully tied

>> to crypto trading. So, it's not a pretty

picture for Robin Hood in the short run

if crypto continues to show weakness,

which I wouldn't be surprised if that

was the case. So, it's not something I

think about hardly ever.

Um, people asking about our our our

Caesar wrap.

>> Y,

>> that was a controversial one.

>> Y

>> All right. So, sweet. And I will say I I

checked to see how I did because I was

in options and short-term options so

kept having to uh you know extend and

and I tripled my money on SG and I'm no

longer in it.

>> And you're no longer in it. Okay. So, I

would have at least tripled my money,

but as I mentioned on our last show, I

think part of the reason, well, I

wouldn't say like initially part of the

bump on Robin Hood was our our not Robin

Hood, excuse me, of Sweet Green,

>> Sweet Green

>> was us bringing eyeballs to it. Then JP

Morgan came out and

uh they they upgraded the stock uh for

some of the same reasons that that that

we were interested. I did not sell any

of my Sweet Green. Okay, guys. So, I'm

still in my Sweet Green position. I just

didn't want to. I would have made about

$700,000 if I would have sold. Uh, so I

just want everyone watching this show

right now to know that when Sweet Green

was up, I kind of wanted to sell because

I was like, "Wow, this is

this is great, right? Like I don't

necessarily need to take any additional

risk here, but I told people I wasn't

going to do it." So I could sell at any

moment now, right? Like I can sell

today, I can sell tomorrow, and I I will

at some point, but for now, I'm still in

sweet green. When we put on that Sweet

Green trade, we were pretty clear about

what we were doing. It was a probability

outcome trade. The data was incomplete.

It was early. We thought that there was

a reasonable chance that this could

become a game-changing moment for the

company if the trend continued. We don't

yet know if the trend is going to

continue or not. I said it would take at

least weeks of more data to determine

that. So, what I did know is that if the

trend continued, this is going to be a

six or seven or 8x return for me based

on the options that I purchased. And if

it didn't work out, I would probably

lose maybe half of my money, maybe the

entirety of my investment. So, I loved

the riskreward. I loved the probability

outcome of having a 30 to 35% chance of

making six to eight times my money. That

was my trade. Uh I still think that

trade exists today. We don't have enough

visibility into the ultimate success of

these sweet green wraps. My concern for

Sweet Grain is that they are getting hit

so hard just generally by competitors

who are doing better like Cabba that the

success of the rap product at Sweet

Green might not be enough to actually

combat the continued

uh competition getting just taking more

more and more of their business. Sweet

Green is a really clean product, guys.

They don't use seed oils for the most

part, whereas their competitors, I

believe Cava and them do. And I think

maybe people just like the taste profile

of some of the competing products as

opposed to Sweet Green, which is a

cleaner profile taste. I love the Sweet

Green Wrap. I thought it was awesome. I

thought that tortilla was super fresh. I

think the entire wrap was super fresh.

>> Have you ordered it again since your on

air tasting though?

>> What?

>> Have you ordered it again since you

tried it on the show?

>> Well, I won't have any wraps because I'm

not I'm not taking carbs. So, like it

has nothing to do with sweet green. But

yes, I I have had it again. I had I went

back and I had it I had sweet green one

time, not the wrap because I I can't I

can't do the carbs uh in the middle of

the day.

>> Sweet green actually uh green today um

surprisingly enough. So that's good.

>> I just I just have a real hard time

wrapping my head around software

multiples for uh you know chain

restaurants. Uh it's just not it's not

something that I'm going to do.

>> Okay. But again, it has nothing to do

with it has nothing to do with being a

long-term investor, Jordan. So, if the

multiples were

>> What I'm saying though is that

what I'm saying is that you've got an

unstable base of just valuation sitting

underneath this really good idea.

>> Okay, fine. But I think the valuations

the the concept the idea sound but

you're sitting on this base of a company

that's just sitting on these

>> you know insane valuations like kind of

like Cava or Sweet all these guys are

just they're getting these crazy

multiples.

>> Okay, I'm I'm not even saying I disagree

with that at all. I don't trade these

companies generally. I I might

completely agree with you. What I'm

saying is the valuations for that sector

or that company are what they are before

a new

>> Yeah. No, I get it. So, you're not Yeah,

but I'm just saying that maybe I don't

stable base if there is any uh if there

is any volatility.

>> Yeah. If if I'm trading something for a

few weeks to a couple months, my

assumption is that I won't get uh that I

will not get a valuation

uh compression in multiples

>> during that time. Yeah.

>> And if they're simply able to show an

increase in revenue and profit that the

value, the multiple stay relatively the

same over my short trade window,

>> right, and it'll all work out. But I

agree, Jordan. I do not necessarily

disagree with what you're saying.

>> Yeah.

>> Sweet Green is not a company that I

would be investing in long term. Much

like I've I'm on the record saying

airlines are, you know, an entire

industry that I will never invest in

long term. But there are times that you

can play them. And for Sweet Green, I

was buying options that were expiring

like one and two days out. And then I

just kept kept doing it. And I lost all

my money on the last ones, but on the

way up, I was up. And it wasn't I wasn't

3x. It was 150% gain.

>> Oh, that's great.

>> Even after my complete loss on the last

round of options.

>> Yeah.

>> No, that that that that's awesome.

Here's here this is actually okay

wrapping it back to the SpaceX IPO. I

thought this was a good question. If you

get allocation, how do you treat it? Do

you sell it immediately on open? Do you

hang on to it? What do you What do you

do if you actually buy it on IPO day?

>> I don't really know, man. I I it's just

it's too hard to predict. Again, I think

it's

>> for me, it's something that could go up

50% or down 50% in a week and I would

not be shocked either way.

>> I think it's really important as an

investor not to act like Jim Kramer and

say when you don't know. Okay. So, like

I actually don't know what's going to

happen with SpaceX. I do not know if

over the 6 months whether the amount of

SpaceX supply that's going to be coming

in from people that have held it for

seven years and are on huge gains is

going to outweigh the retail demand the

the index in

most that now have SpaceX in it

overnight. But most importantly, the

hype cycle of everything this company is

going to be in two years, 5 years, 10

years, 20 years, right? So, like it's

really hard to tell how people will

react to that stuff because you can't

apply normal logic to it because if Elon

comes out and says or some analyst comes

out and says, "Hey, they're going to

mine$10 trillion dollars of space rock

for rare earths starting in 2034."

>> Yeah.

>> What are you gonna say to that? like

like then there's going to be a fight

that no one's going to listen to because

everyone has short attention spans. No

one's reading a 20page report or

rebuttal on that. They're just seeing

the headline and like wow it's another10

trillion dollars for SpaceX and maybe

that actually works and gets SpaceX to

pump. Now was the analyst or the hedge

fund or whoever that wrote the initial

report did they actually think that or

were they trying to pump that? Does it

even matter? This is the market in 2020.

Intentions. Uh, intentions are one

thing, but in message sent is not always

message received. So, yeah, who knows?

Th

>> this is what I freaking hate about

investing in 2026. There's not like a

really solid baseline for for rational

thinking, right? So, you just have to

know that going in. SpaceX is is is

really difficult to assess, I think. So,

I I just don't know. I'd probably sell

half because I just don't know. Okay. I

would focus on something I do know more

about.

Uh yeah, we need to do the peptide. I I

guys, I apologize. We said we were going

to do the peptide episode. We're still

working on research. We will do the

peptide episode. We're going to do

another fun episode

uh talking about the upcoming uh GTA

launch this holiday season. Why are we

talking about that in June? Because if

you wait until October, the trade might

be over. So, we need to analyze GT.

>> We did we did have some people talking

about Take Two in the comments. So, that

is a that's a good update.

We're not saying it's a good investment

or a bad investment. What we're saying

is

>> we need to address it.

>> The time to make your decision on Take

Two and the GTA release is coming up

shortly this summer. You cannot wait

until fall. The second that kids get

back in school, that's too late to be

tra you. You need you need to know what

you're doing right before then. So, it's

at a really nice place where like

I I think this will be an interesting

episode because we're either going to

put on a big long trade or we're not.

We're mid research. So, we have more

work to do.

>> We're either going to do something or

we're not going to do something, but we

will do a show. That's that's

>> the trade. I'm putting my trade on. I'm

not waiting. I I'm going to put my GTA

trade on by the end of July. That will

happen. I'm not waiting until August to

put on my GTA trade. If there is a

trade, I'll make my decision in July.

All right, what else we got, guys?

>> We had a question for Jordan. They want

your take on the war. Uh, everything

else is noise until that gets resolved

according to Lethar.

>> Yeah, I mean, I'm not a war analyst, so

I don't really know what's going to

happen. Um,

>> you're kind of an everything analyst.

You're a big picture analyst. happened

is a severe disruption in oil um flow

from the straight of Hormuz. Um and so

my only real opinion is that I don't

think that's going to resolve anytime

soon. And even if it were to resolve

today, I think damage is done. Um and so

my only trade in the whole thing is uh

got a little long USO, but um you I

could be I could be wrong. Who knows,

>> dude? What's going on with the market?

Yeah, I was do do we have any uh comment

on the current state of the market

because it is not looking good.

>> Wow. Okay, here we go. I I did not

>> I'm surprised that anyone's even

watching us. Normally when the market

crashes, uh everyone just looks at their

own portfolio.

>> I am so pissed off right now because I

bought so many puts over the weekend,

but they expired yesterday

>> and I and I exited them. I basically

lost all that money uh yesterday

morning. I I just was I wanted to be

prepared for this. I did protect my uh

the bulk of my Amazon position

fortunately. Um so at least that is

somewhat protected here

uh through the end of the week. I I was

nervous about Amazon through the end of

the week with this

>> with the world though. Somebody did

mention in the comments a little earlier

that um

uh a helicop like a US helicopter was

shot down in the straight

>> that was that was uh overnight or

yesterday. I saw that in the news this

morning.

>> Yeah, I didn't even know about that. I

have had my head in the sand. Uh no one

wants to respond over it. Um look, I

mean this this is the kind of stuff that

just keeps this thing going on for uh

indefinitely, right? So this is

generally good news for investors if

you're not overleveraged. You you want

the market to drop on stuff like this,

right? We we've said this time and time

again. We all have stocks that we love.

We all have sectors we love. We have

things that we have absolute confidence

in. Whether it's Amazon, whether it's

Nvidia,

uh Micron, the AI infrastructure trade

generally, we have tremendous visibility

into how AI is going to play out. I

think at least over the next 12 to 18

months with spend levels. The one

concern is that people are borrowing too

much money to spend with infrastructure.

But those infrastructure trades in my

eyes are pretty solid and I would love

to see them drop and open up some

opportunities so we can all get deeper

into our favorite AI infrastructure

trades. So, I love stuff like this. It's

painful to see your account get crushed

in the short run.

>> Uh, no. Tell me about it. I

>> But, but the war won't go on, I hope,

forever, right? Like, at some point, I

think

>> Well, I mean, I don't think the war will

go on, but it's not like um let's say

that the war stops today. Everybody

stops firing. What What then? So, Iran's

not just going to open the straight and

be like, "Oh, everything's fine." Um,

right. So, does it even matter if the if

the war keeps going on or not?

>> Why would they not open up the straight?

>> Why would they open up the straight?

They know that it's hurting.

>> They know that it's hurting us and it's

it's liberal for them to get what they

want.

>> The war won't end unless the straight

there's an agreement to open up the

straight.

>> But why would they open it up unless

they unless the United States starts

conceding

uh certain things uh monetary repar all

sorts of things, right? because they

know that the United States isn't going

to do a military uh campaign. Um all we

can do is strategic strikes.

>> So the longer they can hurt us

financially, the longer straight close.

>> I just know the fin the incentives on

our end are to end this before the

midterms. That's all I know. Period. So

I don't know if that's happening in two

weeks or in in two months, but there are

some pretty heavy incentives. And you

know I when it comes to macro stuff I

always invest where the incentives lie.

The incentives almost always maybe

always play out. Always.

>> Yeah. The incentive for us is for it to

open up but the incentive for Iran is to

let the pain continue.

>> I think Iran will

listen they they want something right.

So

>> yeah they want something they've listed

their demands. Um

>> totally unseasonable. So Jordan, are you

saying that you see a scenario where

this goes through the midterms because

they're not going to agree to anything

we will offer them and therefore

>> No, I'm I have no So, first of all, no,

I have no idea how long it'll go on. I'm

just saying damage already done, right?

Um, even if you open up the straight

today,

um, which

>> I don't care

>> that what

>> I don't care about damage already done

because we're in the middle of the

biggest super cycle in of human history.

So, we'll overcome.

>> I just don't think you realize I just

don't think then you're educated to the

impact that it's had on oil supplies

across the world.

>> I'm not sure you're educated to the

impact that the AI super cycle is going

to have over the next two decades. And

the market is forward thinking. So even

if we have tremendous pain over the next

two years, 3 years, the market will

think 5 years out, 8 years out, nine

years out. I I just think this is more

important

than that. So I mean, yeah, I mean,

>> well, if it if it's that important, I I

don't see us uh taking steps that

reflect that.

>> You're right. You're right. And I don't

know what the hell's going on behind the

scenes. this administration. It's I

can't even imagine. Is anything

[clears throat] even happening? I don't

know. I just know at some point at some

point someone has to be having a real

conversation with someone who can make a

decision over there. And I would have to

imagine that we might get close to a

deal at some. I don't know how the hell

it's going to happen. I I'm with you,

Jordan. I do not have a clue

actually happens. We don't even know if

we're talking to the right people.

>> But it [laughter] has to happen. This is

the craziest I've seen in my life,

guys. I The last four months of these

[laughter]

the war ending 10 times. Every weekend

we have a deal on Sunday night or like

Monday morning.

>> That's the thing is there's no deal,

right? It's all it's all made up. Like

[laughter] there's no truth behind those

claims from what I've seen.

>> I could be wrong again. I'm not going to

be wrong about that, but it just seems

like there's actually no deal.

>> The main strategy is just promise that

the war is going to end and keep

>> just have an AIOS report that makes a

claim and then the market goes up,

right? Um,

it's crazy, dude. It's like it's it's

every week, dude. And it just never

ends. It just literally never ends. I've

never seen anything like this before.

We're going to have a 5day pause and

then we're going to have a two week

pause and then we're going to have a one

month pause. Yeah. And we're having a

pause and then Iran starts shooting

missiles at Israel and

>> Well, and the pause doesn't even mean

anything. Yeah. Both sides are still

both sides are still like combative

during the pause. Like nothing makes

sense. That's what we just Nothing

matters. Nothing makes sense. That's my

new slogan.

>> You know what?

By the way, it's summertime. I just

wrote because my kids are out of school

and I just don't want to think about

this stuff every day. That's I think

that's the main thing. I just really

don't. We have been trading so

aggressively throughout the entire

course of the last year since last fall.

The AI trade that just never ends. All

of the the roller coaster ride that

we've been on with Amazon.

Oh dude. I just need a goddamn

break. Need a break from the Iran war. I

need a break from

>> Tik Tok or a real or something where it

was it was a dude who basically was

saying why do I even I don't even want

to know what the straight of Hormuz is

and the fact that I've heard of that is

a problem. The fact that I know that

those words is a problem.

>> I know man. I'm not I'm not on my game.

Uh Jordan

uh you know how we're opening up that

podcast studio in Austin? Yeah. mainly

for women's uh podcast shows that we're

going to develop and launch. We're doing

a spin-off show of Dumb Money that we'll

tell you about after we we end this

episode and we're recording in studio.

None of this none of this

>> is sitting together in a room.

>> Not a live show either. Not a live show

either. And so you might need to go to

Austin once a week starting in November.

>> Uh or or as often as you can.

>> Are we gonna say what it is? Are we

going to

>> No, I don't think we can do it. No, we

have to

>> because I've got a good I've got a good

example that we could on right now and

do a practice episode.

>> No. No. I want to make sure the IP

behind the brand and all the stuff is

set before we start talking about it.

And I don't want to like tease it

because we have so much work to do. I'm

so excited.

This is the most excited I have been

in 20 years about doing something

because I'm more excited about this new

show than the existing dumb money we

have today that we talk about. Don't get

me wrong, I love talking about what we

talk about. But

this is going to be so much better. I

[snorts] think I really do. You're going

to be pumped, Jordan.

>> Yeah, you'll like it.

>> You'll like it for sure. Jordan's gonna

like it a lot. We'll

>> find out.

>> I don't know.

No, he'll like it.

>> There's not a lot of fundamentals.

[laughter]

>> There's no fundamental. There could be

fundamentals.

>> Maybe find some.

>> Um,

>> it's going to be good. We're going to

get back together in person. We're going

to get to see each other again. We could

even like combine like barbecue lunches

after the show like we used to back in

the late 201

back to that um to that soup dumpling

place in Austin. That place was awesome,

>> dude. But think about how much barbecue

there is in Austin. You could eat, too,

dude.

>> We're back.

>> We're back, baby.

>> All right. All right. Let's Let's end

this. Sorry, guys. We're all over the

place. But SpaceX, I don't I don't know,

man. I just don't know. Get Get

>> the conclusion of today's episode is

SpaceX. I just don't know, man.

>> But at least we're honest. At least

we're honest. We just don't know. Okay.

Just don't know. All right, that's

that's a perfect way to end it. All

right, we're done, money. Thanks for

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