Google Is Fooling Everyone
Google's unprecedented $80 billion equity raise is a brilliant strategic preemptive strike to secure critical AI compute capacity and suck dry market liquidity before competitors like OpenAI and SpaceX can launch their own massive IPOs. This structural capital barrier ensures Google's long-term dominance in the vertically integrated AI value chain despite immediate market skepticism.
It explains the structural and macroeconomic dynamics of the AI hardware war, detailing why capital-expenditure scaling and market liquidity preemptions dictate which hyperscalers win the enterprise computing monopoly.
Section summaries
Introduction & Episode Roadmap
optionalProvides a high-level overview of the topics discussed, but does not contain the deep structural analysis.
Sponsor Segment: Qualrum.com
skipSelf-promotion of the host's proprietary stock analysis software.
Google's Strategic Preemptive Equity Raise Analysis
watchThe core thesis of the video. Highly detailed breakdown of AI CapEx scaling, liquidity dynamics, and vertical integration vs. competitors.
Tom Lee Market Outlook Analysis
optionalDiscusses macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth, millennials inheriting wealth, and AI exports, which is interesting but tangential to the core Google thesis.
Creator Economy & Hollywood Disruption
watchExcellent case study on micro-budget versus legacy CapEx business models in the media landscape.
Fail of the Week: Andrew Left Market Manipulation Case
watchA critical look at the mechanics of market manipulation and the realities of regulatory enforcement on retail-facing short sellers.
Key points
- Unprecedented Capital Demand Defeating Organic Cash Flow — Even with $170 billion in trailing 12-month operating cash flow, Google cannot organically fund its scaling requirements. CapEx is projected to exceed $180-190 billion in 2026 and rise significantly in 2027, forcing Google to tap both debt and equity markets to build physical compute capacity.
- Preemptive Liquidity Strike on Frontier Competitors — By executing an $80 billion equity raise now, Google is intentionally sucking dry the finite pool of public institutional and retail capital allocated for AI prior to impending IPOs/raises from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic.
- The Infinite Reinvestment Compounding Loop — AI represents a paradigm shift where Google has transitioned from a mature business returning excess cash to shareholders via buybacks to Buffett's 'ideal business'—one capable of reinvesting massive amounts of incremental capital at highly attractive rates of return.
- The Decoupling of Creative Budgets in Hollywood — Low-budget horror movies produced by YouTubers (e.g., 'The Backrooms' and 'Obsession') are drastically outperforming $165+ million legacy studio IP like Disney's 'The Mandalorian & Grogu' at the box office.
- Citron Research and the Mechanistic Reality of Market Manipulation — The criminal conviction of short-seller Andrew Left exposes how influential media personalities exploit retail liquidity by taking short-term derivative positions and immediately trading in the opposite direction of their public pronouncements.
“Alphabet announces a proposed $80 billion equity capital raise to expand AI infrastructure and compute.” — Joseph Carlson (quoting Alphabet)
“The top question is definitely around capacity.” — Sundar Pichai
AI-generated from the transcript. May contain errors.
Today on the Joseph Carlson show, this
is not something you see every day.
Google is seeking $80 billion for an AI
buildout. They're actually raising
capital through selling shares delution.
This is incredible. This is one of the
biggest equity raises I've ever seen
from a publicly traded company. In fact,
it may be the biggest ever. And we're
going to be going over all of it. A lot
of people have this news wrong. There
are tons of tweets that are giving
analysis and takes on it and hot takes
on what Google's doing. Many people say
that this is a time to be bearish, that
what we should be doing is being scared
of what Google's doing now. And I don't
believe that's the case. In fact, this
is one of the most strategic moves that
Google has ever done. And we'll be going
into all of it this episode. Now, of
course, we have a lot of other news to
get into. For example, Tom Lee recently
went on to CNBC and he upped the ante.
He said that the stock market may go on
to the biggest run that we've ever seen
over the next couple of years. We also
have news that two YouTubers are turning
the box office upside down. We have two
YouTubers that just made the movie The
Back Rooms and Obsession, and both of
them are massive hits at the box office.
In fact, there's now Variety and
different magazines saying that
YouTubers are taking over Hollywood.
What does this mean? We'll be looking at
this as well. And then finally, we get
to the fail of the week, which in this
case is Andrew Left, the infamous
shortseller. He's taken contrarian
positions on many companies. He was
found guilty of scheming to manipulate
stock market via media campaigns. This
short seller, Andrew left, will very
likely face jail time and a lot of it up
to 25 years based on this conviction.
But what did he do? Was it so bad? We'll
be going over the whole case in this
fail of the week. Now, just a quick
mention. If you haven't tried out
qualum.com, give it a try. We're always
adding new things. Qualrum, of course,
is the stock analysis website. It's this
one that I constantly use because, well,
I created it and I own it and I think
it's really easy to use. It just
displays all the fundamentals of a
company in beautiful visual format. It
has an advanced chart builder. It's
super easy to use. You can mix and match
metrics and add any of them that you
want at any time. It has a full earnings
week calendar. You can click in and
learn about any company's upcoming
earnings. And the newest addition in
Qualrum is Qualrum Studio, which allows
you to click in and see in-depth video
research on different companies. This is
a whole Netflix-like library for
investors. For example, I just recently
did an entire episode on Door Dash. This
is an hour-ong deep dive on this company
as well as other ones like my top stock
picks. This goes over 10 different ones
that we do analysis on. Uh we have a
recent video here about saving. A lot of
people thought this one was so good that
I should make it a public episode. So,
I've been considering that. There's
literally dozens of videos you get
access to and new ones added every
single week. And that's all included in
the single membership. So, you can try
it out now risk-f free at qual.com. Now,
to kick things off, we have to jump into
what I believe is some of the biggest
news that we've seen all year. This is
massive and it's actually unprecedented.
We have a company the size of Google,
the balance sheet of Google, the
financial strength of Google that
doesn't have enough money. And in fact,
they don't have enough money to the
extent that they're going to the equity
markets. They're going to delution to be
able to raise money. The Wall Street
Journal says that Google's seeking $80
billion for an AI buildout. From the
Google press release themselves, this is
from Google themselves. They say
Alphabet announces a proposed $80
billion equity capital raise to expand
AI infrastructure and compute. Now to
put this in simple terms, this means
that Google is willing to dilute the
shareholder to issue more shares worth
$80 billion so that they can transfer
those shares into cash and to be able to
use that $80 billion for compute and
infrastructure and whatever they want.
They have to dilute the shareholder to
be able to get this cash. And
immediately this raises a lot of
questions. For example, Google is one of
the most profitable and largest
companies in the world. Typically when
we see companies that are diluting
shareholders, you think of a much
smaller, less profitable company, one
that hasn't reached its operating
leverage and its scale and its profits.
Those are typically the ones that are
diluting shareholders. But Google is
neither small nor unprofitable. Google
is massive and highly profitable. In
fact, Google is one of the most
profitable companies on planet Earth. To
illustrate this, we can take a look at
Google's net income. This really shows
off how much money this company produces
every single quarter and every single
year. If we look at the net income on a
trailing 12-month basis, this is what it
looks like. It's up to 160 billion. Now,
part of this is because of a one-time
investment recognition. If we even
normalize from that, Google still makes
on a normalized basis over 130 billion
per year.
130 billion every year in net income.
Google's operating cash flow was 174
billion in the trailing 12 months. That
puts them as one of, if not the most
profitable company in the world. They'll
probably be beat by only Nvidia this
year. So Google is massively, massively
profitable. Like this is a company that
makes the money that nations do. It it
is an insane level of profitability yet
they don't have enough money and that
again is a headscratcher. Why does
Google need to raise money? Now the
reactions to this were equally perplexed
and in many cases a lot of people were
concerned about Google. We have people
like this Gary Marcus on X saying why
things will eventually fall apart.
Everybody, even Google, seems to be
treating AI as if it were some kind of
winner take all competition like web
search was in which Google can take over
95%. But everybody is building
essentially the same technological
solutions and essentially the same data.
So there is no mode. He continues on
showing how Google is overspending and
they're not going to have good returns.
We have other people on Twitter sharing
these tweets of of skepticism and shock.
We have liquidity here saying that
Google is raising $80 billion in equity
a week before SpaceX is trying to raise
75 billion a few months before Anthropic
and OpenAI are trying to raise 100
billion from investors. And you're
laughing. This is a cataclysmic exit
liquidity avalanche. And then he has the
meme of the big short of him Michael
Bomb in this saying that it's a bubble.
Jerry Capital saying Google equity raise
summarized and it's a a meme of the
joker burning cash. And there's more and
more of that. Twitter and X are full of
people that are completely shocked at
this. People that are saying that this
is the end of Google. It's the beginning
of the end. It's a bubble and everything
is going to come crumbling down. But as
I've done many times in the past, and it
will come as no surprise to you, I am
once again going to defend Google. No, I
do not believe that Google is lighting
money on fire. No, I do not believe that
this is the beginning of some big bubble
that's going to burst. And no, I do not
believe that Google's spending hundreds
of billions of dollars to build an
undiversified nomote business. All of
that is wrong. What's going on here
actually makes Google a much better
investment. And I'll be going over why.
Now, first of all, to look at my
position with Google, I think is
important. I have here in the passive
income portfolio, which I made it so you
can just see all the holdings here. So,
this is the passive income portfolio,
and I have a position in Google here.
It's a $130,000 position with 65,000 of
that being in the green. So, this one's
up over 136%. So, Google in just that
one portfolio is already a fairly large
position, but that's not the only place
that I hold it. I also have the story
fund and I have another large position
in Google here. $85,000 worth and 57,000
of that is gains. This one's up 382%.
So, when I look at this combined,
Google's around a 16% position. It is
fairly large. It's around a4 million
dollar position with over half of it
being gains. And I've held this company
for years and I've consistently defended
Google over and over again. And I
believe this is another case worthy of
defending Google for a few different
reasons. First of all, we can actually
look at what Google's doing here. They
are raising $80 billion in equity
capital to expand AI infrastructure. So,
they're basically diluting shareholders
to make it so that they have more cash
to invest in AI. And right off the bat,
that tells me a couple things. One of
them is that Google's belief in AI is
absolute. It is without question. They
don't just simply have a suspicion. They
don't simply have some speculation that
AI is a real thing. No, they believe it
100%. They're 100% convinced. So, if you
have any type of speculation or any type
of question that AI is going to have
attractive returns and it's going to
have demand, Google's already a bit
ahead of you. It's no longer a question
in their mind. They have a million data
points at their business, maybe a
billion data points. Of course, they
have search, they have Gemini, and then
they have their massive cloud business
that they have tons of enterprise
clients. And every single data point
they have, their entire business is
telling them they need more capacity.
They need more compute. They cannot
fulfill on all of the projects they're
trying to do across their vast empire
without the capacity. So, to them, this
is not a speculative bet. It's not
something that they're rolling the dice
on. Sundar Pachai did not wake up and
say, "You know what? It seems kind of
risky, but I think I'm just going to
roll the dice, invest $80 billion into
AI, and hope things turn out well."
That's not what's going on here. They
already know. They already have the
answer. What they're signaling to
investors here is that Google is
absolutely certain of AI demand without
any question. There is no way Google
would be putting this much capital at
this scale and this size without that
absolute certainty. And this isn't
something that was decided overnight
either. Google has for a long time
period their management has said and
signaled over and over again that right
now their biggest concern by far is the
unprecedented demand for compute
capacity. And the biggest concern for
Sundar Pachchai is not being able to
fulfill that compute capacity. He's
repeatedly mentioned this. In fact,
Sunder Pachai said just in February of
this year, quote, "What keeps us up at
night, we've been at this AI first
trajectory for over a decade." Pchai
said, pointing to years of investment in
custom chips like tensor processing
units, the TPUs. He went on to mention
that this current momentum in this
demand presents a unique challenge.
Quote, "The top question is definitely
around capacity." Pachai said all
constraints bet on power, land, supply
chain constraints. How do you ramp up to
meet this extraordinary demand for this
moment? He says that we got our
investments right for a long time and
we've done it all in a way of driving
efficiencies and doing it in a world in
a worldclass way. Google has been in the
right place at the right time over and
over again. Look at their investments
that they did in Whimo. Were those
poorly illustrated investments? No, they
did quite well. Look at their
investments that they did in artificial
intelligence and models. Chachbt got the
release first, but Google had been
working at that for a long period of
time and now Gemini is one of the top
used models. Look at their investments
in TPUs. Google is decades ahead of that
and comparison to companies like
Microsoft. Another present investment
for Google. Sundar Pachai has been on
top of this for a long period of time.
And right now he feels like the
unprecedented demand in AI is their
single biggest constraint. It is the
single biggest thing preventing them
from winning this entire race, from
consolidating an enormous amount of AI
demand under Google. Now, you may
question whether or not Sundar Pachai is
right. What if this is just a bet that
they're getting wrong? But in Google's
mind, what they're seeing right now as
they're running their business is that
they have all of the tools, they have
the TPUs, they have the best models,
they have the cyber security, they have
all the infrastructure, they have all
the distribution, but they do not have
the compute capacity. And Google's in a
situation where they're turning away
great customers, saying, "You know what?
We can't take your money because we
don't have enough capacity to fulfill
your demand. They are turning away
enterprise clients because they can't
provide enough capacity." Can you
imagine how frustrating it is as a
business to sit there with all all this
planning that you've done, all this
research, owning the best models, having
the TPUs, having everything already
baked to this point. It is ready to go.
But then you don't have the physical
infrastructure to be able to back up the
unprecedented demand. That must be
incredibly frustrating. It is giving
away a massive advantage that you've
built for decades. Senator Pachai does
not want to do that. He believes it's
critical not to do that. So they are
building and they're building fast.
Google is wanting to build faster than
Meta. They're wanting to build as fast
as Amazon in this AI demand. And to do
this, they need to raise a lot of cash.
And that brings us to the next big
question. A lot of people are looking at
this saying, "Well, if Google makes so
much money, $170 billion in operating
income, over $130 billion in net income,
why can't they just afford to do this
themselves?" And there's a couple
reasons why. First of all, they outline
this in this segment here called
investing in a balanced way. AI is
driving an expansionary moment for
Alphabet. The company is experiencing
strong demand for its AI solutions and
services from enterprises and consumers
at levels that are exceeding the
company's available supply. By scaling
its investment, the company seeks to
expand its foundational infrastructure
infrastructure to support the
significant growth opportunity ahead.
During its Q1206 earnings call, Alphabet
announced that its 2026 capital
expenditures are expected to exceed 180
to 190 billion and that it expects in
2027 capital expenditures to
significantly increase from 2026.
Now, let's just look at these numbers
here. Yes, Google makes like $170
billion in operating income. It's a lot
of money, but the number that they said
they're going to spend this year is 180
to 190 billion. That's more than what
Google makes. They're spending that in
2026 alone. Then they mention in 2027
they expect this number to go up
significantly. They literally say
significantly. We don't know what that
is, but it's going to be a lot higher.
These numbers, by the way, in and of
themselves are already way higher than
analysts expected. Analysts were
expecting numbers that were in the range
of 130 billion and they're already at
180 to 190. And they're saying that this
number is going to go way higher in
2027. Google makes a lot of money, $170
billion, but they don't make 200 billion
per year. They don't make $250 billion.
So Google quite literally cannot afford
upfront to pay for all of these
investments. They have to get money in
other places. And when a big company
like Google's raising money, there's two
ways to raise it. You have the debt
markets and you have the equity markets.
And we can look at what Google has done.
Google has already tapped the debt
markets. They've already tapped it dry.
In terms of debt issuance over the last
year, Alphabet has raised $85 billion of
debt across six major currencies and
markets, bringing its total debt balance
to over hundred billion. So the people
saying, why doesn't Google just raise
more debt? Why are they diluting
shareholders? They already have. They've
raised $85 billion of debt in just the
past 12 months. If they went ahead and
raised another $80 billion, they would
have $180 billion of debt, which is a
lot of debt, even for a company the size
of Google. That's a lot of debt. And
unfortunately, when you do that, it
makes your balance sheet, your debt
rating go down. They don't want to raise
that much debt. They don't want to pay
that much interest. Furthermore, there's
a lot of analysts looking at this and
banking analysts saying that the debt
markets in general are somewhat tapped.
Like it's a lot harder to get debt right
now than it was previously cuz lenders
are being a lot more strict with their
terms. So Google got debt already. They
got $80 billion of it. While the debt
markets were good, now that the debt
markets are sour, they're turning to the
equity markets. And this is another
thing that Google's doing in an
incredibly intelligent way. They're
getting ahead of the equity markets. And
by that I mean that Google is now
raising $80 billion of equity with
Delilution right before SpaceX goes for
their IPO. And wouldn't you know SpaceX
IPO, the 5% that they're wanting to
raise from the public is around $75
billion. So Google's saying, "Hey
SpaceX, before you get to market and get
all that juicy money from all the public
investors, we're going to get there
first. We're going to dry up that
liquidity before you have access to it.
We're also going to get there before the
anthropic IPO and before the OpenAI IPO.
Google's going to be first to the equity
markets, not last. This means that
Google has the advantage. They're
beating all these massive companies
looking for public money before they get
there. And Google will likely be able to
raise this money easily again because
investors aren't already putting money
into SpaceX, into OpenAI, and into
Anthropic. What Google's actually doing
here is more of a preemptive strike.
They are going for the equity markets
before they have been tapped by all
these other major AI companies like the
SpaceX, like the OpenAI, like the
Anthropic. We know that these companies
are going to be doing staggering level
of IPOs, raising hundreds of billions of
dollars in aggregate. There is a finite
amount of capital available to invest in
AI companies. Google knows this. They
know that if they wait too long, they'll
be the last in line trying to raise
capital from a market that doesn't have
a lot more capital to give. They will be
sucking all the oxygen out of the room
for these other IPOs. Not only helping
Google, but damaging their competition
and their ability to fund these
competitive threats in the process. See,
what Google's doing is not only
advantaging themselves, but they're
disadvantaging these other companies
hoping to raise capital as well. They're
making it more difficult by sucking away
all the available capital before they
even have a chance. This is a double
whammy. It is a preemptive strategic
strike at their competitors. Google is
saying that we are going to invest
endlessly in AI. We are going to make it
so that open AI and anthropic struggle
to gain any level of profitability and
pricing power. We're going to build out
a massive moat because Google has
something that these other companies do
not have. See, Google is not just a
commodity reseller of AI. They're not a
company that just spun up some servers
and created a server farm and is
reselling AI. Google is a vertically
integrated enterprise of AI features
from the security to the distribution to
the TPUs to every part of this. They
have the entire layer as well as Google
has many ways to benefit from this
personally. So Google can soak up all
this capital build out this massive moat
with artificial intelligence
distribution. They can infuse it in all
the features throughout all of their
business at the same time making it so
that they have a highly differentiated
product. At the same time, they are
sucking up both institutional and retail
money in the process. This is both a
defensive and offensive move by Sunundar
Pachai. When you really think about what
they're doing here, it is strategically
brilliant. It's something that you would
have to plan for, but Google seems to
have already done this and they're
executing it well. Google already knows
that they have a massive lead in this
category. They know that all they have
to do to protect their lead and protect
their moat is keep momentum going. Keep
the ball rolling. Keep this snowball
getting bigger and bigger and definitely
don't let it crumble to pieces because
you don't have capacity. That'd be a
very stupid reason to give up the lead.
And Google knows this. They say that
their AI momentum is picking up pace.
Alphabet's planned investment will
support its business momentum, including
Alphabet's revenue growing 22%
year-over-year to $ 110 billion in Q1.
That's over 110 billion in a single
3-month period. Google search and other
revenue grew by 19%. Cloud revenue grew
63% year-over-year in Q1 with backlogs
nearly doubling quarter over-arter to
more than 460 billion with approximately
50% expected to be recognized as revenue
over the next 24 months. Google's
subscriptions Google reached 350 million
paid subscriptions with Q1 2026
representing the company's strongest
quarter ever for consumer AI plans.
Google now has over 8.5 million
developers building new experiences with
its models monthly and its first-party
model API are processing 19 billion
tokens per minute. A six time increase
year-over-year. The metrics are
staggering. And these aren't the only
ones. When you actually look at what's
going on with Google, like when you
literally just visually look at it, it
literally looks fake how much demand
they have. Their demand is outscaling
their revenue growth. it's outscaling
what they're able to provide at an
unprecedented pace. And that's why they
need more cash today. I think it's good
to just take a minute and simply think
about what's going on. Instead of
looking at the headlines and becoming
concerned that they're selling shares
and it's a lot of money, I really want
to just take a step back and consider
for a minute simply what's going on.
Google believes that there is an
investment they can make that is so
good, it's so good that they need to
literally dilute shares of their own
company to raise equity to make this
investment. That's how good it is. And
that's an investment that's so good that
they've already raised $80 billion by
going to the debt markets. And that's an
investment that's so good that they've
already spent all of their operating
cash flow and their net income. All
their discretionary money is being spent
on this investment. That's what Google's
doing here. So, in terms of whether or
not they believe this investment is
worthwhile, that shows you where they
stand. They're willing to do whatever it
takes to make this investment and make
sure they continue to lead in AI. And I
have full reason to believe them. Like
we highlighted, every metric for Google
is already showing that this is paying
off. Buffett once talked about the ideal
business. He described what he believed
was the perfect business. And this is
what he described. This is a
hypothetical of Buffett's ideal
business.
>> Sure, it's a good question. The the
ideal business
is one that earns very high returns on
capital and can keep using lots of
capital at those high returns. I mean,
that becomes a compounding machine.
>> So, those are both important
ingredients. It's not enough just to
have high returns, but you have to have
high returns with a lot of capital
invested. And that's where you get the
compounding machine. So if you have your
choice, if you could put a $100 million
into a business that earns 20% on that
capital, say 20 million, ideally it
would be able to earn 20% on 120 million
the following year and 144 million the
following year and so on that you could
keep redeploying capital at these same
returns over time. But there are very
very very few businesses like that. the
really unfortunately the good businesses
you know take a Coca-Cola or seas candy
they don't require much capital and
incremental capital doesn't produce
anything like the returns that this
fundamental return that's produced by
some great intangible Google
historically was one of these companies
that earned so much more money than they
could adequately reinvest. So what did
Google do during that time period? Well,
they just bought back shares. They just
returned it back to the shareholder.
They said, "Hey, look, we have these
profitable businesses. We generate way
more cash than we need to adequately
reinvest back in our business. So, we're
going to just return all this extra back
to you, the shareholder." And they did
that for a long period of time. Google
was a cash flow generative, highly
profitable, cash returning business for
years and years and years. But then
something happened which made the
equation flip. Google has a unique
opportunity to invest enormous amounts
of capital today at what they believe
with high conviction will be very
attractive returns for their
shareholders. Now again, Google's not
just racing out looking for investments.
They're not just racing out throwing
money left and right willy-nilly hoping
that it turns out well. This is
something that just happened. It was
fate. It was fortune. It was a lot of
preparation and building out the TPUs
and building out the AI models. But
having this massive influx of AI demand
was also just a part of fate and Google
is wellprepared to take advantage of it.
They're now saying once we finally found
something that's in our wheelhouse that
we know very well that we don't have to
look outside of our business to earn
high returns. We're not just doing
acquisitions. We're not buying some
random company with very low prospects.
This is something that happened that's a
one-time thing. The AI influx is a
dynamic change in the market. We have a
huge advantage here and a huge
opportunity to invest increasing amounts
of capital and get very attractive
returns. This is the ideal business that
Bergkshire is looking at. And funny
enough, even though Warren Buffett said
that years ago, now they're investing
$10 billion in this ideal business.
Bergkshire obviously believes that the
money that they're investing today will
have attractive returns. And I believe
that Google's intuition here and the
management conviction is correct. They
are likely to have incredibly high
barriers to entry for their AI
solutions. Although companies can spin
up server racks, there's very few that
have the entire stack like Google. They
have the TPUs, that have the security,
that have the distribution. Google's
also a very uniquely positioned company
to have the billions of users in
distribution natively to integrate all
of this computational power within their
services. They're already giving you
previews of what they can do already
just with their basic applications like
how AI's integrated into YouTube. It's
integrated into your documents, into
Drive, into PDF viewing, all of this
type of stuff. But there's far more that
they can go. There's far more runway. So
Google is in a position to have a
massive capital barrier mode. They're in
a position to get all this capital
before their competitors with XAI,
before their competitors with Anthropic
or with OpenAI have access to this
capital. They're in a position to build
out an incredibly powerful full stack AI
solution. Google is a very uniquely
positioned company to benefit from this.
So, as far as I'm concerned, I'm staying
in Google. Now, moving on, let's get to
some news. Here we have Tom Lee recently
going on to CNBC and explaining why he
believes that the next three years will
be the best years for investors in the
stock market. Let's go ahead and listen
to his reasoning.
>> Well, I think a couple things are coming
together, Joe, um that are going to
really support a few things that may
only happen like once in our lifetime.
One is I think this the US economic
growth rate is actually starting to step
up. Um you know in other words we could
grow at 4%. And for a you know a mature
largest economy in the world to start to
accelerate growth that that's pretty um
astounding. Um the second is the US is
one of the biggest exporters of the most
important tool in the next 10-15 years
which is AI products and that means we
are a net essentially exporter of a
highv value product and there's so much
capital I think misallocated today
because so much of it is held in private
alternatives but it's going to move into
the public market. So I do think that
plus the demographic tailwind of
millennials and Gen Z uh adding to the
workforce but then also beginning to
inherit generational wealth. I think
that is going to set up for after 2026
perhaps you know like you know over the
next 2 years some of the biggest gains
of the stock market in our lifetime.
>> So Tom Lee points out a couple important
things here. One of which I completely
agree with which is the United States
has become a massive exporter of AI
which if you look at historically why
the US has done so well if you just look
at the US economy and the stock market
and why it's really thrived a lot of it
has been software the United States has
been a massive exporter of software
services which are high margin very
profitable consistently build services
now we have the SAS apocalypse software
stocks are going down software is the
old news. But then we have the new
thing. The new shiny thing, of course,
is AI. In this case, AI is a very real
product offering enormous amounts of
value. It's so powerful that it's
literally disrupting many software
companies. And which country is
investing by far the most into
artificial intelligence? Well, the
United States is. It's not even close.
And then the last thing that he points
out, which I again agree with, is there
is going to be a lot of generational
wealth, a lot of pass down wealth that
should spur economic growth. I believe
that younger demographics spend money in
different ways. They spend on different
services than older demographics. So,
you're going to see a lot of boom. And I
believe a lot of stock market companies
do well as a result of that. So, even
though this seems a little bit
far-fetched to have the best years of
our life ahead, it also doesn't seem
impossible. With what's going on with AI
today, the massive influx investment in
capital, I believe that there is a
chance we'll have incredibly good gains
in the stock market over the next three
years. and I think it's a great time to
stay invested. Now, next we get to news
of what's going on in Hollywood. This is
something that I I think a lot of people
are overlooking. This is a dynamic
change happening to movie making and it
specifically has to do with YouTube.
YouTubers seem to be taking over the box
office, especially over the past week.
AMC had its best month ever, the most
traffic ever had in history. Cinemark
also did exceptionally well. These movie
theaters are pulling in the mass amounts
of people to see movies. But it's not
for the new Mandalorian movie. It's for
movies that YouTubers are making.
Backroom is a horror film. $10 million
is what they spent to produce this film.
Open to an extraordinary 81 million.
Smashing records for distributor A24.
And Obsession, a horror film made on a
budget of 750,000,
gross 26.4 million in its third week
after release, a 10% jump from the
previous weekend, and crossed $100
million domestically. So again, this
movie Obsession, it cost $750,000
to make and they're now grossing well
over $und00 million. Now, I saw
Obsession the first weekend that it came
out. I was looking at movies to watch.
I'm not a huge horror fan, but I'll I'll
watch them if they look interesting
enough. And this one had an intriguing
premise. I saw a couple of the
commercials and I'm like looking at this
Wish Gone Bad. And then I looked at the
ratings on it. And notice right here,
this is Rotten Tomatoes. Now, I get it.
The critics can be wrong sometimes. The
users can be wrong sometimes as well.
But when you have a 96% critic and a 94%
user, that's a pretty good consensus
that this is likely a a very well done
movie. And it was. Obsession was one of
the best horror movies I've seen in a
long time. It was original. And even
though it was created for $750,000,
there's no way that I thought this movie
would be made for that cheap. It looked
good. It looked very good. In fact, I
would say that this movie looked better
aesthetically than many movies shot for
like a hundred million dollars. I don't
know how they did it. The lighting, the
ambiance, the acting, just everything
looked really upclass for a movie made
for less than a million dollars. Now,
the incredible part of this is that this
movie that again costs less than a
million dollars to film, is actually
doing better than The Mandalorian and
Grou, a Star Wars spin-off with a $165
million price tag. That one came in
third after the two YouTubers films. It
tumbled 70% in its second week and its
opening weekend it was the lowest ever
for a Star Wars film under Disney. So
look what's going on right now. The
company that has Star Wars, one of the
biggest pieces of IP ever. Like it seems
like bulletproof IP just came out with
their new movie, which is a new one in a
long time, The Mandalorian and Grou.
They spent hundreds of millions of
dollars to make it and they're being
outplayed and outmatched. They're being
beat in the box office by two YouTubers
movies that are both created for less
than $10 million. One of them created
for less than 1 million. That is an
insane underdog story. So I believe this
is the time that Hollywood will wake up.
They will use this as a shocking way of
now turning to YouTubers original
stories, lowerbudget films that feel
very good because they're led by
storytelling, acting, and character
development. They're not led by CGI and
AI explosions. These movies were
entertaining because of the story they
told, because of the pacing, because of
how they were directed. So, I believe
we're going to see a lot more of this.
Hollywood is going to be turning to
YouTubers to make more of these movies,
and I'm all for it. Now, moving on, we
get to the fail of the week. In this
case, it is Andrew Left of Citron
Research. He has been found guilty from
scheming for scheming to manipulate the
stock market via media campaigns. Andrew
Left used his TV appearances to disguise
his intentions, manipulate the stock
market, and pat his pockets, said First
Assistant United States Attorney. So,
the government goes after Andrew Left.
They catch him and they say that you've
been really bad at manipulating the
stock market. That's illegal. So, we're
going to throw you in jail. And at first
glance, you may just look at this and
think, "What did he do that was so bad?
Did he just pump his stocks? Was he just
bearish on different companies and
that's why they're throwing him in
jail?" That's not really what's going
on. What Andrew actually did was much
worse. One of these examples is very
damning. In 2018, Andrew Left wrote a
portfolio manager about Nvidia Corp. He
said, quote, "Do you want to make some
fast money? Put together a thesis of why
Nvidia is oversold. We can destroy it.
Just read the analyst note from this
past quarter and assemble your best
ideas." Later that morning, Left took
financial positions in Nvidia, including
a short-dated call options that expired
3 days later. left them promoted Nvidia
as a favorable investment to Citron's
Twitter account, stating, "Cit buys
Nvidia. This is the first time in two
years the stock has an appealing
riskreward to investors. We see 165
before we see 120." Despite his
representation that he expected Nvidia
share price to rise to 165, less than 2
hours after announcing Citron buys
Nvidia, left sold all his pre-weeted
positions. Nvidia was trading within a
range of 150 to 151 and he sold for a
profit of $960,000.
So Andrew left says Citron's buying
Nvidia and I have a price target that's
like $20 higher and I'm very bullish on
it. It's not going to go down. And then
within 2 hours of that announcement, he
cashes in on short-term options for a
million dollar gain and it's completely
out of the position. That is textbook
market manipulation. He had no intention
of keeping Nvidia and riding it up to
his price target. He was just trying to
bump the stock up so he could
immediately exit and sell into the
liquidity that the market was providing.
And Andrew Left repeatedly did stuff
like this. He would take short positions
and he would say that the stock is going
to go down, but then immediately after
releasing that news that he believes the
stock was going to go down, he would
immediately close those positions for a
quick gain. And he wouldn't tell people
that he had exited those positions. This
is exactly the type of behavior that is
short-term manipulation. Andrew Left was
fine making money from his followers at
their expense. He was fine trading
against them, having them buy into the
liquidity of a position he was selling.
So, he'd make money for himself at the
expense of his followers. So, this is an
unfortunate case for Andrew Left. It
shows that even when you can make a lot
of money in the short term, the $20
million or so that Andrew Left has made
is just not worth it. Manipulating the
stock market, trading against your
followers is just not worth it. It's a
bad game to play. It's completely
dishonest. And even though the
government isn't perfect at applying
these rules equally, they are going
after these people doing this. And I
think that overall that's a good thing.
That's it for this episode. See you in
the next one.
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