The Daily TLDR

Donald Trump rolled the dice on Iran's nuclear ambitions, taking a controversial strike that he boasted had 'obliterated' their program. However, early intelligence reports whisper a different story, suggesting the damage might only set Iran back by a few months. While Trump managed this without losing a single American warplane or provoking an immediate Iranian backlash, the big question remains: what has America truly gained?

Iran now stands at a critical crossroads. It could make a desperate dash for a nuclear bomb, inviting yet more sanctions and deepening its global isolation. Alternatively, it could choose a quieter path, attempting to engage with the international community and strike a new deal.

Crafting such an agreement, however, is a monumental challenge, as trust is in short supply on all sides. The international community, especially America, remains wary of Iran's nuclear stockpiles and hidden facilities. Meanwhile, Iran accuses the U.S. of stringing it along during past negotiations while Israel plotted its attack.

To break the deadlock, Donald Trump could offer a mix of 'carrots' and 'sticks.' The 'carrots' include lifting sanctions and fostering Iran's engagement in the global community, while the 'sticks' involve further military action and economic pressure. The hardest task of all would be to fundamentally change Iran's incentives to pursue a bomb by reshaping the very dynamics of the Middle East – a truly tall order.

Ultimately, a nuclear agreement remains a difficult prize to grasp, but the alternative is far grimmer. Without a deal, Iran could indeed go for a bomb, potentially leading to repeated Israeli strikes and dragging the United States into a regional conflict against its will. Such a scenario would strain the fundamental U.S.-Israel relationship and trap the entire region in an endless cycle of warfare.

Donald Trump has certainly gambled big on Iran, but as the dust settles, the verdict is clear: he has not yet won.